North Carolina
North Carolina (UNC) vs. Oregon Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 12-28-2022
The Oregon Geese and North Carolina Tar Heels are enjoying within the Vacation Bowl this Wednesday, pitting nine-win Pac-12 and ACC applications. The Geese pale into the shut, shedding two of its final three to Washington and Oregon State. The Heels additionally did not end sturdy, shedding three straight to Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, and Clemson.
Each groups shall be with out key gamers and coordinators. Oregon misplaced offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham, who left to take the pinnacle teaching job at Arizona State, transfers Justin Flowe and Dont’e Thornton, and NFL Draft hopefuls Christian Gonzalez and Noah Sewell. UNC shall be with out offensive coordinator Phil Longo, who left to educate at Wisconsin, transfers Keeshawn Silver, Tony Grimes, and Storm Duck, and NFL Draft hopeful Josh Downs.
Kickoff from Petco Park in San Diego is at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Geese are 14-point unfold favorites, and the sport complete is 73.5 factors.
Which Oregon workforce will take the sphere at Petco Park?
Oregon was unable to complete its season on a excessive notice, shedding to #25 Washington and rival Oregon State in two of its remaining three. Its different blemish was a 49-3 beatdown loss to Georgia. That stated, the Geese did beat UCLA and Utah when each groups have been ranked within the high ten and BYU when the Cougars have been ranked twelfth. So, which Geese workforce will take the sphere in San Diego on Wednesday?
Within the upset loss to the Beavers, Oregon gave away the sport within the fourth quarter. The Geese led 31-10 late within the third quarter and 34-17 early within the fourth however squandered away their lead by giving the Beavers brief fields on three consecutive drives. OSU was in a position to get the ball into the tip zone on all three possessions with out finishing a single go.
‘tis the season 🏈#GoDucks pic.twitter.com/4qaf0935lP
— Oregon Soccer (@oregonfootball) December 26, 2022
Nonetheless, the Geese had an opportunity to win the sport and almost did. Oregon quarterback Bo Nix moved the offense all the way down to the Beavers’ two-yard line, however the drive ended on fourth down on an incomplete go. Nix handed for 327 yards and two touchdowns however was restricted on account of a proper ankle harm.
“We had our possibilities and couldn’t convert,” he stated, “and perhaps ought to have performed some issues in a different way.”
This season, Oregon is scoring 39.7 factors and averaging 507.8 complete yards per recreation, together with 216.3 dashing yards and 291.5 passing yards. The Geese are thirty second in third down conversion share (43.3%) and 73rd in pink zone scoring share (82.4%).
The Oregon protection surrenders 27.4 factors and 386.1 complete yards per contest, together with 125.5 dashing yards and 260.6 passing yards. It is ranked 126th in opponent third down conversion share (48.9%) and twentieth in opponent pink zone scoring share (76.0%).
North Carolina may have had a extra memorable season with a stronger end
North Carolina missed a chance to crash the School Soccer Playoff, or at the least insert itself into the dialog, with upset losses to Georgia Tech and NC State. The Tar Heels have been 9-1 however could not journey their momentum to the end line. Following a disheartening 29-point loss to Clemson within the convention title recreation, which UNC workforce will present up in its bowl recreation?
The blowout defeat by the hands of the Tigers was not how the Tar Heels envisioned their season concluding, as Clemson led 24-10 at halftime and by no means regarded again. UNC was outmatched, scoring only one landing within the first half and nil factors within the second half. The Clemson protection compelled three North Carolina turnovers and held UNC to three.1 yards per keep it up 36 dashing makes an attempt.
Greetings from sunny San Diego ☀️#CarolinaFootball 🏈 #UNCommon pic.twitter.com/tNyZnNk0ZZ
— Carolina Soccer (@UNCFootball) December 24, 2022
This season, North Carolina is scoring 35.0 factors per recreation and averaging 473.6 complete yards per recreation, together with 156.4 dashing yards and 317.2 passing yards. The Heels are ranked twenty third in factors scored, ninth in passing yards, and fifteenth in complete yards amassed.
QB Drake Maye leads the passing assault (4,115 passing yards, 35 TDs, and seven INTs) and paces the bottom recreation (653 dashing yards and seven dashing TDs), too. With its main receiver Josh Downs out, North Carolina will look to Antoine Inexperienced (798 receiving yards and seven TDs) to select up the slack. UNC is ranked 14th in third down conversion share (46.5%) and 94th in pink zone scoring share (79.6%).
The UNC protection surrenders 31.0 factors and 438.2 complete yards per recreation, together with 161.8 dashing yards and 276.4 passing yards. They’re ranked ninetieth in opponent third down conversion share (41.4%) and 92nd in opponent pink zone scoring share (86.8%).
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Each groups are lacking key gamers and their common season offensive coordinators, however at the least each quarterbacks are enjoying. Nix and Maye ought to placed on a present, however which protection will make sufficient stops to guide their workforce to victory?
The Geese’ protection is best within the pink zone than most groups with a bend-but-don’t-break mentality. The UNC offense was additionally ranked simply 94th in pink zone scoring share. Moreover, the UNC protection was ranked 92nd opponent pink zone scoring share and shall be and not using a few defensive starters. I count on Nix and Oregon to benefit from their alternatives within the pink zone, changing them for touchdowns as an alternative of subject objectives.
The Geese are 6-1 ATS of their final seven video games following an ATS loss, whereas the Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS of their final 4 impartial website video games. I am going to guess on Oregon to win and canopy the 14-point unfold within the Vacation Bowl.
Prediction: Oregon -14
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With a 73.5-point complete, oddsmakers count on a higher-scoring recreation at Petco Park. Contemplating the expertise taking the sphere for each offenses, that is to be anticipated however is that this complete too excessive?
UNC boasts an explosive offense however will miss considered one of its key playmakers in Downs. Each groups will depend on totally different offensive coaches to name performs than they’ve all season, too. I count on it will have an effect on the sport’s fluidity, resulting in extra stalled drives than regular.
Neither workforce was enjoying their greatest soccer on the finish of the season, and I count on a few of the errors that price them down the stretch to rear their ugly heads on this recreation. Whereas San Diego is a world-class vacation spot, the Vacation Bowl is somewhat beneath these applications, as each have been playoff hopefuls at one level this yr.
Contemplating all of this, I am betting on the underneath at 73.5 complete factors scored.
Prediction: Underneath 73.5