North Carolina is first stop for nor’easter tracking up East Coast. See expected impacts

• A powerful nor’easter is expected to impact the East Coast this weekend, starting with the Carolinas.
• The storm is forecast to bring heavy rain, strong winds, coastal flooding and dangerous surf conditions.
• Impacts could stretch from the Carolinas up to Massachusetts as the storm tracks north through early next week.
• Nor’easters are coastal storms fueled by the contrast between cold land air and warm ocean waters.

A powerful nor’easter may wreak havoc on the East Coast this weekend, slamming the Carolinas on its path to the Northeast.

Marking the first nor’easter of the season, the coastal storm is known for strong and dangerous waves, high winds and heavy rainfall. In previous nor’easter events, the Outer Banks has experienced severe beach erosion, coastal flooding and dangerous surf conditions — sometimes literally knocking down homes and washing away sections of roadway.

As the storm tracks north, forecasters warn it could bring similar hazards to coastal communities from Virginia to Massachusetts, including power outages, travel disruptions and marine dangers with seas topping 10 feet, according to the National Weather Service office.

The exact track will determine which regions see the heaviest impacts, but residents along the East Coast should prepare for worsening conditions through early next week. A dry high-pressure system is expected to move in, bringing calmer weather and milder temperatures to North Carolina on Monday and Tuesday, Oct. 13–14.

“A coastal low will lift north along the Carolina coast through the weekend,” the National Weather Service office wrote in an area forecast discussion early Saturday, Oct. 11. “This system may bring rain to the North Carolina Piedmont and eastern Upstate late Saturday through Sunday as it passes by to our east. The low will continue to slowly track northeast along the Mid-Atlantic Coast early next week, with dry high pressure and above normal temperatures returning to the region.”

What is a nor’easter?

A nor’easter is a storm along the East Coast of North America that typically blow over coastal areas. These storms can occur at any time of year but are most frequent and most intense between September and April, according to the National Weather Service.

Nor’easters usually develop between Georgia and New Jersey, within about 100 miles of the coast, and generally move northeastward, reaching maximum intensity near New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces. They often bring heavy precipitation — rain or snow — along with gale-force winds, rough seas and sometimes coastal flooding.

Potential impacts of the nor’easter in North Carolina

• Heavy rain: Several inches of rain could fall, reducing visibility and creating localized flooding in coastal and low-lying areas.
• Strong winds: Northeasterly gusts could reach 60 mph, especially near the coast, posing risks for power outages and downed trees.
• Marine hazards: Seas of 6 to 8 feet are expected along exposed waters east of Cape Fear and Winyah Bay. A Gale Warning is in effect, and small craft operators are advised to remain in port.
• Coastal flooding: Minor flooding is possible along beaches and low-lying areas — including downtown Wilmington and the lower Cape Fear River — as high tides combine with residual effects from last week’s full moon.
• Rip currents: A high risk is in effect along New Hanover County beaches through the weekend.
• Reduced visibility: Heavy rain and strong winds may create hazardous driving and boating conditions.

How much rain is expected? Rain forecast totals across the East Coast

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts several inches of rain in eastern North Carolina.

These are the estimated rainfall amounts for regions affected by the nor’easter on the East Coast through Tuesday, Oct. 14.

Eastern North Carolina to Southern Virginia:

• 2.5 to 5 inches
• Core areas near the coast show even 5 to 7 inches

Mid-Atlantic Coast

• 3 to 5 inches, especially near the coast
• Some isolated coastal pockets appear to approach 6+ inches

New York (Downstate and Long Island)

• 2 to 4 inches, heavier near the coast

Southern New England (Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts)

• 2 to 4 inches, locally higher amounts possible near the southeast-facing coast

Eastern Pennsylvania & Upstate New York (east side)

• 1 to 2.5 inches, tapering westward

Coastal Southeast (South Carolina and Georgia):

• 1 to 3 inches, heaviest near the northern part of the South Carolina coast

Why is it called nor’easter?

It’s called a nor’easter because of the direction of the prevailing winds during the storm. In these systems, the winds along the coast usually blow from the northeast.

How do nor’easters develop?

The U.S. East Coast provides an ideal environment for nor’easters. In winter, the polar jet stream pushes cold Arctic air south across Canada and the U.S., then east toward the Atlantic Ocean, according to the National Weather Service. At the same time, warm air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic moves northward. The contrast between the cold land air and relatively warm coastal waters — kept mild by the Gulf Stream — fuels these storms, creating the strong winds and precipitation that define a Nor’easter.

Do Nor’easters always have snow?

No. Whether a nor’easter brings snow, rain, or a mix depends on the storm’s track and temperatures:

• Snow: Most common in the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England when Arctic air dominates.
• Rain: More likely in the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic, where temperatures are warmer.
• Mixed precipitation: Possible in areas near the transition zone, with sleet or freezing rain.

Even without snow, Nor’easters can still produce strong winds, heavy rain, rough seas and coastal flooding, making them dangerous storms regardless of the type of precipitation.

How do they differ from tropical systems? Nor’easters vs. hurricanes and tropical storms

Nor’easters are typically associated with colder seasons and form from a temperature contrast between cold Arctic air and relatively warm Atlantic waters.

Tropical storms and hurricanes form over warm tropical or subtropical waters, and predominantly develop in warmer months.

Nor’easters also have a larger wind field, while tropical storms have a well-defined eye with the strongest winds near the center.

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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network.