The Florida State Seminoles (12-7, 6-2 ACC) welcome the No. 3 North Carolina Tar Heels (16-3, 8-0) to the Donald L. Tucker Center Saturday. Tip is set for 2 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the North Carolina vs. Florida State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
The Seminoles beat the Syracuse Orange 85-69 Tuesday, covering as a 3-point road underdog. They have won 6 of their last 7 games and have covered in all 6 victories, closing as an underdog in 4 of them. Florida State is 11-8 against the spread (ATS) on the season. It lost to the Tar Heels 78-70 on the road Dec. 2, closing as a 12.5-point underdog.
North Carolina is No. 3 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. It beat the Wake Forest Demon Deacons 85-64 Monday, covering as an 8-point home favorite. The Tar Heels have rattled off 9 in a row, covering in 8 of them. This streak followed back-to-back losses against top-10 teams (No. 6 Kentucky and No. 1 UConn). North Carolina is 12-7 ATS on the season.
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North Carolina at Florida State odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): North Carolina -280 (bet $280 to win $100) | Florida State +225 (bet $100 to win $225)
- Against the spread (ATS): North Carolina -6.5 (-114) | Florida State +6.5 (-106)
- Over/Under (O/U): 152.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
North Carolina at Florida State picks and predictions
Prediction
North Carolina 77, Florida State 71
Moneyline
PASS.
The Tar Heels are rolling and have yet to lose in ACC play. Don’t expect that streak to be snapped Saturday but pass on North Carolina to win outright as it is far too expensive at -280.
Against the spread
BET FLORIDA STATE +6.5 (-106).
The Seminoles, like the Tar Heels, are among the hottest teams in the conference. They have covered 5 of 6 games as an underdog in ACC play. Florida State has ample efficient scoring options too with 5 players notching at least 8 points per game and 3 of them shooting 43% or higher.
North Carolina is more top-heavy, led by G RJ Davis, who is averaging 20.1 per game. It shot 21 more free throws and shot better than Florida State in the first matchup yet only won by 8. Expect a more even battle and a Seminoles’ cover.
Take FLORIDA STATE +6.5 (-106).
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 152.5 (-105).
North Carolina has surged lately due to its defense. It has held 9 straight opponents to 70 or fewer. It has gone Under in 6 of its last 7, so it really has stepped up on that end of the court.
Florida State is 11-7-1 O/U but has gone Under in 2 of its last 4 and has allowed Under 75 or fewer 3 of those 4. Given the recent trends for both teams, take UNDER 152.5 (-105).
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