North Carolina
North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads By 3 Points In Latest Survey
Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris could become only the second Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina in more than 40 years as the state has slowly shifted to the left, with most polls showing her and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat, though the latest survey found Trump with a three-point advantage.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during an NCAA championship teams celebration on the South Lawn … [+]
Key Facts
Trump is up 59% to 47% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll released Monday, still within the 3.9-point margin of error, while a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters released Wednesday found Harris leading 49% to 47%, a reversal of Trump’s 49%-47% lead two weeks ago.
Two other recent polls found Trump with an edge: He led 46%-45% in a Wall Street Journal poll published Oct. 11 that includes third-party candidates, and led 49%-48% in an Emerson College poll out Oct. 10, after Harris led 49%-48% in the group’s September survey.
Last month, Trump led by two points in a survey of likely voters taken Sept. 25-29 by the Washington Post, while Harris led by two points in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey released Sept. 26 and the two were tied in a CNN/SSRS poll released Sept. 27.
The Cook Political Report moved North Carolina from “lean Republican” to a “toss up” in late August, writing that the state “looks more competitive than ever” since Harris’ entrance into the race, while Cook’s latest survey released earlier this month shows Harris and Trump tied, after Harris led by one point here in August.
If Harris wins the state, she has a 91.3% chance of winning the election, according to political analyst Nate Silver’s Voter Power Index, which found Trump would have an 81.2% chance of winning the electoral college if he wins North Carolina.
Harris has a 38.6% chance of winning North Carolina, similar to her odds in Georgia, and as of August, there was an 86% chance the states will vote together, according to Silver’s model, which considers various demographic characteristics, including age, income, race and education level and the states’ voting history in the past two elections.
North Carolina’s shift to the left has largely been credited to a population increase among potential voters who typically back Democrats—including the highly educated—especially from a 5.6% increase since 2020 near the “research triangle” area of Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, according to the Brookings Institution.
That area hosts three major research universities—Duke University, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and North Carolina University—that have also sparked related industries in high tech and the life sciences, and made it the tenth-fastest growing area in the country, according to Brookings.
And the overall percentage of North Carolinians with a bachelor’s degree—a Democratic-leaning demographic—has also increased by 1.4 million since 1990, according to a study by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
What To Watch For
Whether scandals surrounding GOP gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, could hurt Trump’s chances in North Carolina. Trump endorsed Robinson prior to a CNN report revealing a string of racist and derogatory comments he allegedly made on a pornographic website chat forum before his entrance into politics, including referring to himself as a “Black NAZI.” Polls taken after the Sept. 19 story show Democratic candidate Josh Stein has widened his lead over Robinson, to as many as 19 points in a recent Emerson College survey. A CNN/SSRS poll released Sept. 27 also found Robinson trailing Stein by 17 points and a tie between Trump and Harris, suggesting Robinson’s scandals haven’t affected Trump’s standing there. Historically, the demise of down-ballot candidates rarely drag down the affiliated party’s presidential candidate, CNN notes.
Big Number
16. That’s how many electoral college votes North Carolina has, after gaining a vote after the 2020 census. The state has the eighth most electoral votes in the country, tied with Georgia.
Contra
Despite the electorate’s increasingly Democratic leanings, Republicans hold a supermajority in both chambers of the legislature, giving it the power to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s vetoes.
Surprising Fact
North Carolina has only voted for one Democratic presidential candidate since 1980: Barack Obama in 2008.
Key Background
Trump holds a narrow advantage in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, while Harris is up by slim margins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, and the two are tied in Pennsylvania, according to the Silver Bulletin. No candidate is leading by more than 1.7 points in any of the seven swing states. Most recent national surveys show Trump has narrowed Harris’ lead in recent weeks. She is ahead by just one point in RealClearPolitics’ polling average. North Carolina was the only swing state where Biden lost to Trump (by one point) in 2020.
Further Reading
Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leads Or Ties Trump In All Battleground States, Latest Survey Finds (Forbes)
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads By 6 Points In Latest Likely Voter Survey (Forbes)
North Carolina
North Carolina couple accused of causing vulture invasion sued by furious town: ‘Not good neighbors’
A North Carolina couple accused of luring hordes of vultures to their home and unleashing chaos on neighbors for years is being hauled to court by fed-up town officials desperate to end the feathered frenzy.
The Town of Hillsborough slapped residents Kenneth and Linda Ostrand with a civil petition, seeking a court order to shut down their relentless bird-feeding habit, blamed for allegedly drawing dozens of winged scavengers to their home and terrorizing their small town for the past two years.
“They’re a little spooky to be frank,” concerned neighbor Holden Richards told WTVD.
“Everybody thinks they’re ugly and stuff but they’re not good neighbors. They have sharp talons, so they’re not great animals to have perching on your house. I watched them pick tiles off my neighbor’s roof and I found tiles from my roof in my front yard, so I have a feeling that’s exactly where they came from.”
The bird-brained couple is accused of leaving out food scraps for vultures, allegedly reeling in the feathered predators that have swarmed and roosted near their house, leaving foul-smelling droppings on neighbors’ homes and vehicles and causing widespread property damage deemed a risk to public safety.
The complaint, filed in March, also claims the twisted pair named the birds of prey – with eerie photos submitted to the court showing dozens of vultures circling their Queens Street home, the outlet reported.
“I’m pretty sure that every one of my neighbors has probably called,” Richards said, pointing to a flood of complaints made to town officials since May 2024.
The Ostrands reportedly filed a motion to dismiss the town’s case last month, denying the accusations.
Linda Ostrand, a longtime wildlife rescuer, told WTVD she is being unfairly targeted by her community and claimed the circling creatures were already an issue before she moved into the neighborhood.
“It’s sort of, it’s ridiculous, is what it is,” Linda said, noting the town changed an ordinance after the initial wave of complaints to ban wildlife feeding beyond standard feeders.
“If people didn’t have vultures around here you would hear them screaming bloody murder about the town not cleaning up the animals that have been hit by cars, because that’s what they do, they are nature’s garbage disposal,” she continued.
“I don’t know what I’m supposed to do, tell the vultures that this is a no-feed zone. I just don’t know.”
No court date has reportedly been scheduled for the couple’s fight with the town.
North Carolina
Businesses worry of potential impacts as Marion tightens water restrictions amid drought
MARION, N.C. (WLOS) — The City of Marion is tightening water restrictions as drought conditions persist across western North Carolina, prompting local businesses to prepare for possible impacts on daily operations.
The drought monitor released on Thursday, May 14, shows that extreme drought now covers 90% of western North Carolina.
ASHEVILLE IS MORE THAN 7 INCHES BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL THIS YEAR, DATA SHOWS
As the region continues moving into a hotter and drier pattern, the City of Marion officials announced Stage Two water shortage restrictions less than a month after issuing a Stage One Water Advisory.
Businesses in Marion said the quick escalation is raising concerns about what could come next if drought conditions persist.
“They put us in stage one at the end of April and already it’s not through, it’s not the end of May and they’re already putting us in stage two,” said Barbara Brown, owner of Bruce’s.
Under the Stage Two restrictions, watering lawns, gardens and golf courses will be prohibited. Washing cars, filling residential swimming pools and serving water in restaurants except upon request will not be allowed.
Brown said her restaurant is already taking steps to conserve water.
“We check the bathrooms often to make sure people have turned the water off because we have found from time to time, people leave them running,” she added.
She said she worries stronger restrictions could eventually force businesses to make bigger operational changes.
“I’m concerned that eventually we might have to go to paper plates, paper cups, silverware,” Brown said.
Other businesses are also considering adjustments.
Kat Garner, a tattoo artist at Blue Ridge Tattoo, said water shortages could affect how the shop operates day to day.
LEADERS URGE WATER CONSERVATION AS DROUGHT DEEPENS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
“We would definitely be reduced to using distilled water for everything, which would become harder if everyone’s buying it out, so that would definitely make things a little bit more difficult,” Garner said.
The Stage Two water restrictions are set to begin Friday, May 15, at 8 a.m. and will last until further notice.
North Carolina
Police: North Carolina man charged after high-speed chase in Erie County, arrested in the Town of Perry
PERRY, N.Y. — A North Carolina man is in custody after a chase that started in Erie County and ended with an arrest in Perry.
Wyoming County Sheriff’s deputies say Ericson Vasquez-Moran, 22, rammed a Border Patrol vehicle in Erie County around 11:30 p.m. Tuesday before taking off. The suspect was spotted in Warsaw on Route 20A, but a chase was called off due to high speeds.
Then around 2:30 a.m. Wednesday, deputies say Vasquez-Moran called 911 from Perry to surrender.
He’s charged with speeding, failure to keep right, unlawful fleeing a police officer, reckless driving, and reckless endangerment in the second degree.
Vasquez-Moran was given an appearance ticket for the Village of Warsaw Court and was released to the custody of the United States Border Patrol.
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