North Carolina
Michigan State women vs North Carolina prediction: March Madness, NCAA pick is in
Breaking down the Albany 1 region first-round game between No. 9-seed Michigan State and 8-seed North Carolina:
Records: Michigan State (22-8, 12-6 Big Ten); North Carolina (19-12, 11-7 ACC).
Fast facts: 11:30 a.m. Friday; Colonial Life Arena, Columbia, South Carolina.
TV: ESPN2.
At stake: Winner faces winner of 1-seed South Carolina and 16-seed Sacred Heart or 16-seed Presbyterian on Sunday for spot in Sweet 16 in Albany, New York.
PRINT YOUR BRACKET: March Madness schedule, how to watch the NCAA tournament
About MSU
Location: East Lansing
Coach: Robyn Fralick (First season at MSU; 22-8 at MSU; 85-68 in Division I in six seasons).
School tournament record: 19-18 in 18 appearances.
Past 10 regular-season games: 7-3.
Scoring leaders: Julia Ayrault, 15.4 points per game; Moira Joiner, 14.7; DeeDee Hagemann, 12.4.
Rebounding leaders: Ayrault, 7.2 rebounds per game; Joiner, 4.8; Tory Ozment, 4.7.
Assist leaders: Hagemann, 5.1 assists per game; Joiner, 2.7; Theryn Hallock, 2.7.
3-point leaders: Joiner, 43.2%; Hagemann, 41.4%; Hallock, 37%.
THE ANNOUNCEMENT: Michigan State women’s basketball’s March Madness opponent is North Carolina in 2024 NCAA tournament
The buzz: It’s tough to imagine a more perfect debut season for Fralick, the 2020-21 MAC Coach of the Year and a 2017 national champion while leading Division II Ashland (where she went 104-3) — the Spartans swept rival Michigan and topped 90 points a dozen times, including six times against major-conference opponents. In all, the Spartans averaged 83.7 points a game, good for sixth in the nation, while whooting 48.4% from the field (ninth nationally) and 37.3% on 3s (12th). That was despite finishing 275th in rebounds per game. Then again, if you never miss, you never rebound, either. No Spartan made a bigger leap this season than Ayrault in her senior season; the Grosse Pointe North product went from averaging 3.6 points in 10.5 minutes a game last season to 15.4 in 25 minutes under Fralick while making the All-Big Ten first team. Joining Ayrault on the All-Big Ten team was Hagemann, a junior; the former Miss Basketball out of Detroit Edison earned second-team honors while averaging 12.4 points and 5.1 assists a game. Hagemann also took a huge leap, going from shooting 48.2% on 2-pointers and 30.3% on 3s last season to 58.8% and 41.4%, respectively, during this campaign. MSU’s defense isn’t always the sharpest, but the Spartans can stop opponents — or at least slow them down — when they’re focused. Consider their lone matchup against Big Ten champ Iowa on Jan. 2 on the road; the Spartans held the Hawkeyes to 41.8% shooting — including a 14-for-34 performance from all-everything Caitlin Clark, who still had 40 points — before Clark ended it with a buzzer-beating 3 for a 76-73 win.
About North Carolina
Location: Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
Coach: Courtney Banghart (95-55 in five seasons at UNC; 349-158 overall in 17 seasons).
School tournament record: 50-29 in 30 appearances.
Past 10 regular-season games: 4-6.
Scoring leaders: Deja Kelly, 16.7 points per game; Alyssa Ustby, 12.4; Lexi Donarski, 10.8.
Rebounding leaders: Ustby, 9.3 rebounds per game; Maria Gakdeng, 5.8; Indya Nivar, 4.3.
Assist leaders: Ustby, 3.6 assists per gae; Kelly, 3.3; Kayla McPherson, 1.9.
3-point leaders: Sydney Barker, 40%; Alexandra Zelaya, 35.3%; Lexi Donarski, 34.6%.
The buzz: An 8-seed is something of a disappointment for the Tar Heels, considering they entered last season’s tourney as a 6 (before falling to Ohio State), entered this season at No. 16 in the polls and had two of the most experienced guards in the nation in Kelly, from Texas, and Ustby, from Minnesota. And as late as Jan. 25, the Heels appeared on track for a top-4 seed. But then came a skid in the ACC, with losses in six of nine games, including two to a top-10 Virginia Tech squad. UNC’s lone conference tourney game didn’t help, either, as the Tar Heels blew a 14-point second-half lead in a one-point loss to Miami. Kelly had 15 points, but made just six of 20 shots from the field, a microcosm of her season in which she bumped up her scoring average slightly, but shot just 35% overall and 28.8% beyond the arc (compared to 37.3% and 28.1% last season). Similarly, Ustby’s percentages dropped, from 50.6% overall and 30.3% on 3s last season to 47.8% and 27.3% in 2023-24. Still, the Tar Heels do a good job of holding onto the ball, with their 12.8 turnovers a game ranking 335th in the nation, and can change opponents’ shots, as they average 4.6 blocks a game (31st).
Prediction
This one could be decided in the first few minutes if the Spartans connect early from outside and make the Tar Heels keep up with their top-level offense. But if it turns into an interior slugfest, UNC has plenty of experience making that work. The pick: MSU 75, UNC 57.