Friday Pick-Six: Week 7 best bets for Miami at North Carolina, Texas A&M at Tennessee, Oregon at Washington

Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I’ll pick five games against the spread each week, plus my Upset Du Jour. 

We’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!)

Tough Week 6. I got Major Burn’d by the LSU safeties pick-six for backdoor cover against Missouri. I also whiffed on Notre Dame going to Louisville winning, and Texas took a tough one losing to archrival Oklahoma in Red River.  I did nail UCLA covering against Washington State, Ohio State over Maryland and Iowa State as my Upset Du Jour of the week — two straight there at least!

Overall, I stand at 16-12-2, and 4-2 on my upset specials. This week’s slate is loaded with some major matchups with major stakes. 

Let’s make some picks. (All point spreads come from FanDuel).

Every college football reporter — myself included — has spent the week deservedly dunking on Mario Cristobal for his galactic buffoonery of BIG DUMB FOOTBALL MAN refusing to kneel out the clock. 

And yet, the Hurricanes’ embarrassing loss to Georgia Tech had zero impact on the spread against an undefeated Tar Heels team this week. Drake Maye got cooking against Syracuse but this will be the toughest defense he’s seen all season. 

I expect a bounce-back performance from Tyler Van Dyke (three picks versus the Yellow Jackets) and a spirited performance from an angry Hurricanes team. I don’t know that it will be enough for an outright upset win — UNC has won four straight versus the Canes — but they stay within the number. 

The Pick: Miami +3.5

The Aggies are coming off last weekend’s loss to Alabama, where Jimbo Fisher conservatively coached not-to-lose big and cost his team a real chance at a marquee win. Now they must go on the road to a well-rested, healthier Tennessee team coming off a bye week. 

This is a strength-on-strength matchup here, with the SEC’s best run defense against the SEC’s top rushing offense. Regardless of the Aggies’ saltiness up front, the Vols are going to lean on their ground, but Joe Milton will still have his chances for shot plays against a leaky TAMU secondary. My other question: Can the Aggies block the Vols in obvious passing downs? Tennessee is No. 3 in the SEC in sacks, No. 3 in TFLs.

The Aggies struggled in a much less hostile road environment at Miami earlier this season, and now they’re playing with a downgrade at QB. Give me the Vols. 

PICK: Tennessee -3

The Orange are coming off a bad loss against North Carolina and now must take a second straight road trip to a Florida State squad hungry to put up a big number after a couple of meh showings the last few weeks.

Syracuse is down several key starters, and head coach Dino Babers went on a diatribe earlier this week about a lack of depth thanks to losses to the transfer portal. 

The Seminoles ground game got going last weekend (Trey Benson had 200 yards on 11 carries), and I expect FSU to keep the offense humming this weekend and cover a big number. 

PICK: Florida State -17.5

The Cowboys stunned Texas Tech, pushed Texas for 3.5 quarters and just upset Top 25 Fresno State last weekend, and yet they’re double-digit ‘dogs to Air Force?

Yup, because the Falcons are quietly the best team in the Mountain West with one of the most efficient offenses in the nation. Air Force is also a Top 10 defense, allowing just 4.3 yards per play. 

The Falcons hammered San Jose State and San Diego State in back-to-back games before getting an extra week to prepare for Wyoming. 

PICK: Air Force -10

The Horned Frogs have lost two straight — including getting bullied on the road at Iowa State last weekend — are down their starting quarterback Chandler Morris, and are favored by nearly a touchdown?

Color me confused. 

The Cougars have had extra time to prepare for TCU, and while their offense has struggled to match points against Big 12 foes, their defense has proven to be good enough to keep them in games. I don’t know that Kalani Sitake is going to go win outright at TCU, but they could. 

PICK: BYU +6

Upset Du Jour

I’ve been backing Dan Lanning and the Ducks since the preseason, so why stop now?

I know all the Bo Nix road splits (20 of his 24 career INTs away from home), but most of that voodoo was when he was an Auburn Tiger. The more important Ducks on Saturday will be their OL and tailback Bucky Irving, who could provide real problems for a Huskies defense that’s been just so-so stopping the run. 

Washington’s prolific offense is absolutely capable of hanging a big number, especially with all three wideouts back, but Oregon is the more complete, balanced team. 

PICK: Oregon