Film Forecast ‘23: Miami at North Carolina

The 4-1 Miami Hurricanes head north to Chapel Hill to face the undefeated UNC Tar Heels on Saturday, October 14th at 7:30pm on ABC.

The Hurricanes are 0-1 in the ACC after the shocking, upset loss to Georgia Tech in their conference opener. UNC is 2-0 in the ACC and curb stomped Syracuse 40-7 a week ago.

This will be the ultimate test of Mario Cristobal as a head football coach. If the team comes out and plays uninspired football, he’s lost the roster two years in a row. If the ‘Canes come out with fire after a week of Ga. Tech noise- the faith in Cristobal will be rekindled.

The Doppler

This is by far Miami’s closest matchup per Bill Connelly’s SP+ all season. Miami is 17th overall while UNC is 18th. The Miami offense is 30th, the Tar Heels defense is 42nd. The UNC offense is 11th, the Miami defense is 13th. And Miami has the edge in the kicking game with a 5th ranking versus 43rd. This is a game that will come down to kicking, penalties, and you guessed it- game management by the head coaches.

Miami is 10th in points per game with 36.8, while UNC is 11th with 36.6 PPG.

Miami’s defense is 16th in points per game allowed, giving up 16.5 PPG on the season. UNC’s defense 25th in PPGA, giving up 19 PPG this year.

The U is 6th in yards per play, while UNC is 28th. Miami is 11th in points per play while the Heels are 33rd.

Games are won and lost by penalties. Just ask Miami about holding calls, taunting calls, and other stupid penalties that make up undisciplined football players. The ‘Canes are 117th in the country by committing 7.8 penalties per game. UNC is 34th in FBS as they’re called for only five penalties per game.

Turnovers are hard to overcome and win. Miami gave up five against Ga. Tech and took away two. UNC is 40th in FBS with +0.4 TO’s per game. Miami is 48th with +0.3.

The UNC kicker, Noah Burnette, finished 4-of-4 on field goals and 4-of-4 on PAT’s. However, they did have a punt blocked, even if it was converted into a 1st down.

Above– Mario Cristobal needs to focus on kicking and culture day-to-day, and his game management on Saturdays from here on out. Let the OC call the offense, DC call the defense. Worry about kicking, culture, and the damn clock!

UNC Offense

The Tar Heels converted 10-of-19 3rd downs and 1-of-2 4th downs against Syracuse. QB Drake Maye averaged 9.4 yards per attempt with three touchdowns, no interceptions but he did lose a fumble. Maye might be someone Miami can get to with strip sacks as he’s been turnover prone in ‘23.

UNC ran the ball 40 times (taking away two sacks), with Omarion Hampton as the feature back. Hampton rushed for 78 yards on 5.2 per carry vs. the Orange. Maye has been running more in the Chip Lindsey offense. Maye picked up another 55 and a score on the ground.

Kobe Paysour absolutely went off against ‘Cuse. Paysour averaged 33 yards per catch with a touchdown on three receptions. Nate McCollum continued his solid season with 19.3 yards per catch. Bryston Nesbitt added another receiving TD on 15.8 YPC. This means the UNC offense will be explosive and Miami’s offense may have to keep up.

The O-Line allowed two sacks to Syracuse and six tackles for loss.

Above– Miami throws enough bubbles in practice that the defense has it down better than Cuse does here. The bubble and smoke RPO’s don’t worry me that much.

Above– What does worry me? Smashy slot fades with tall WR’s against shorter nickels and safeties. They won’t throw this at James Williams, it’ll be at Te’Cory Couch and Kam Kinchens.

Above– The UNC offense hasn’t been perfect in ‘23. Maye has taken some bad sacks and thrown interceptions, fumbled the ball away. PRESSURE from the front four is necessary. Where is Leonard Taylor?

Above– Play-action sucking up the DB’s while the explosive UNC WR’s get behind them in coverage? Yeah, it’s a concern.

Above– UNC also runs TE slide based play-actions and RPO’s down inside the +5. A Miami team that’s over-aggressive to squeeze and play the RB, also that ignores the flats could be burned badly vs. Maye.

Above– Maye will run more than King did for GT. Chip Lindsey, the UNC OC, will run him more than former OC Phil Longo did, too. Be prepared from a big day from Maye running the football both designed, and scrambling.

UNC Defense

The Tar Heels defense has been steadily improving since Gene Chizik replaced Jay Bateman at DC. Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader averaged only 5.9 yards per attempt with an interception. UNC also picked off Carlos Del-Rio Wilson, the backup QB.

LeQuint Allen and Shrader were Syracuse leading rushers. Allen averaged 3.5 yards per carry with a TD, and Shrader averaged 2.8 YPC (including sack yardage).

Syracuse was limited in their explosive plays, clearly by the scoreboard. Umari Hatcher hauled in a 34-yard pass to average 14.2 yards per catch. The other three pass catchers were held under 10 yards per grab on the day.

The UNC defense logged only one sack, three TFL’s, and NOT A SINGLE PBU. Interesting stats in a 40-7 blowout.

Above– UNC DC Gene Chizik has almost flushed the soft Jay Bateman defense out of the Heels. They’re tackling and tracking much better than before.

Above– Myles Murphy will be a player to watch on UNC’s D-Line. Can Jalen Rivers control Murphy in the run game? That’ll be a tough ask.

Above– So what’s open vs. the UNC defense? The Jacurri Brown Package. Why isn’t that being used again? Vs. GT, Don Chaney Jr. ran the ball well, Henry Parrish Jr. didn’t. Another wrinkle could be a difference maker vs. UNC.

Above– UNC DB’s jump some hitches and picked Cuse off twice. I hope Tyler Van Dyke can read those breaks a little better than the Orange did.

Above– The Syracuse backup QB was in and gets hit and picked off. Van Dyke needs to learn when to throw it away, scramble, or just live to take a sack and fight another day. What works vs. Temple doesn’t work in the ACC.

The Forecast

The 2nd run of the Mack Brown Era has been good but not great. Brown has had a losing season, 6-7 in 2021. But the Heels are 4-0 against Miami. UNC has a 61.5% win expectancy per ESPN.

The Canyonero keys to victory for UNC from the summer are:

1- Don’t let Maye win the Heisman. Drake Maye has had a rocky ‘23 with turnovers but he came alive against Syracuse. UNC is 5-0 and playing at home in Chapel Hill. Miami’s defense can’t let Maye win the Heisman Trophy on Saturday night.

This one will be huge for Lance Guidry’s group to prove they are worth the dough. You have to start asking Jason Taylor where the pass rush is, and Guidry needs a solid performance with so many playmakers at WR for UNC.

2- Run the ball, effectively. I’m not sure what happened against GT, but Miami needs to be a little more colorful on offense against UNC. Chizik isn’t an idiot, the guy has won a National Championship as a DC at Texas and as a HC at Auburn. 1st down inside zone runs with seemingly no RPO tag aren’t going to do it.

3- Hit on explosives. I still think this is important. Miami needs to match explosive plays with UNC. 3-yards-and-a-cloud won’t win against WR’s hitting on 15+ yards per catch and versus an elite QB. Colbie Young, Jacolby George, etc. Miami needs big plays from that crew.

In the summer my prediction was UNC by 7 and it stands.