Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Leads Harris In North Carolina And Arizona, Tie In Georgia (Updated)

Georgia: Trump and Harris are tied at 49% in a Marist poll released Thursday, and Trump leads 49.9%-48.4% in a Bloomberg poll out Wednesday and 47%-43% in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of likely voters out Tuesday, while a Washington Post-Schar poll released Monday found Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

North Carolina: Trump is up 50%-48% in the Marist poll—within the 3.6-point margin of error—and he’s up by 49.6%-48.5% in Bloomberg’s polling and 50%-47% in the Washington Post-Schar poll, while Harris had a two-point lead in an Oct. 16 Quinnipiac poll. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with a 0.9-point advantage.

Arizona: Trump leads 50%-49% in the Marist poll (margin of error 3.7), and Trump is ahead by three points—49%-46%—in the Washington Post-Schar School poll, but Bloomberg reports an effectively tied 49.1%-48.8% Harris lead. Trump is up 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Michigan: Harris’ 49.6%-46.5% edge marks the largest lead of any state polled by Bloomberg, but it’s still within the four-point margin of error—and it’s similar to Harris’ 49%-46% lead in Quinnipiac’s polling after trailing Trump 50%-47% earlier this month. Harris is up by just 0.7 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Pennsylvania: Harris leads 50%-48.2% according to Bloomberg, and she had a 49%-47% advantage in the Washington Post-Schar poll. Still, Trump leads Harris by 0.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Nevada: Harris is up 48.8%-48.3% according to Bloomberg, but Trump is ahead 47%-46% in an AARP poll released Tuesday, and they’re tied at 48% in the Washington Post-Schar poll, while a Wall Street Journal poll released Oct. 11 found Trump up by 5 points. Harris leads by 0.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

Wisconsin: The state is almost as close as it can get, as Trump is up 48.3%-48% in Bloomberg’s poll and the two candidates are tied at 48% according to Quinnipiac, while Harris holds a 50%-47% edge in the Washington Post-Schar poll. Harris is up 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.