Could Mark Robinson cost Donald Trump North Carolina? Experts weigh in

North Carolina’s 2024 gubernatorial race took a dramatic turn last week when the campaign of controversial Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson was hit by a new scandal.

CNN reported allegations of racist and sexist posts Robinson allegedly made on a pornography forum, raising questions of whether Robinson’s troubles could extend beyond his own race and hurt former President Donald Trump’s bid for North Carolina.

The CNN report covered posts made on the forum by a user with a username tied to Robinson. The user made posts about enjoying transgender pornography (Robinson has publicly called transgender people “filth”), about desiring to own slaves, and in one post, the user described themself as a “Black Nazi.”

But could Robinson’s scandal cost Trump the critical state of North Carolina?

Newsweek contacted several North Carolina-based political analysts, who are split on the impact Robinson’s troubles will have on Trump’s 2024 prospects in the state.

Robinson, the GOP’s nominee for governor, has denied the allegations, calling them “salacious tabloid lies.” Nevertheless, the damage may already be done and many of his top staffers have since resigned.

Robinson, who Trump has previously endorsed and described as “like Martin Luther King on steroids” was notably absent from Trump’s rally in Wilmington last Saturday, a sign that the Trump campaign may be distancing itself from his increasingly embattled gubernatorial candidate.

Trump won North Carolina in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, albeit narrowly, and the latest polling aggregates show him just half a percentage point ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the state.

Impact on Trump Uncertain

Mitch Kokai, a political analyst at the John Locke Foundation, a conservative think tank, downplayed the idea that Robinson’s scandal would hurt Trump, telling Newsweek: “I doubt that Mark Robinson’s latest controversy will have much of an impact on Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. The former president has won North Carolina’s electoral votes twice, despite all of his own electoral baggage,” Kokai said.

He noted that Trump has been maintaining a lead in North Carolina polls, even as Robinson has fallen further behind Democratic rival Josh Stein in recent months.

Kokai added that Trump’s unique political brand, combined with his focus on issues like the economy and border security, is likely to insulate him from any fallout related to Robinson.

“Trump is likely to continue to hammer away at the same themes… It’s unclear whether that strategy will get him North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes, but it’s more likely to have an impact on the presidential race than Mark Robinson’s current predicament.”

Ticket-Splitting Tradition in North Carolina

David B. McLennan, a political science professor and pollster at Meredith University, offered a similar assessment, telling Newsweek that while Trump has consistently outpolled Robinson, the presidential race in North Carolina remains tight.

“Mark Robinson has always run behind Donald Trump in terms of voter preferences in polls,” McLennan said, adding that the margin widened in recent months.

He suggests that Trump may be “somewhat inoculated” from Robinson’s problems, though McLennan warned that in a margin-of-error race, even a slight dip in Trump’s numbers could be pivotal. “The loss of a few percentage points by Trump could matter.”

North Carolina has a history of ticket-splitting, with voters supporting candidates from different parties for state and national offices.

In the past two election cycles, voters backed Trump for president while re-electing Democratic Governor Roy Cooper.

McLennan predicted this trend to continue in 2024, with Trump running competitively against Harris, even if Robinson falters.

Robinson Could Damage GOP Brand

Chris Cooper, a professor of political science at Western Carolina University, agreed that ticket-splitting could be a saving grace for Trump.

However, he cautioned that Robinson’s scandal could still harm Trump if it dampens Republican enthusiasm.

“The bigger problem for Trump is if Robinson does damage the party brand enough that infrequent voters who lean Republican tend to stay home,” Cooper told Newsweek.

He said that, before the latest scandal, 8 percent to 12 percent of Trump voters were already planning to vote for Josh Stein over Robinson.

If that number grows, it could signal that Robinson’s candidacy is harming the party, though not necessarily Trump himself.

However, Cooper noted that predicting voter turnout, especially among occasional voters, is notoriously difficult. “Unfortunately for those who like to play the prediction game, that will be difficult, if not impossible to know until election day,” he added.

Demographic Shifts Could Play a Role

The changing demographics of North Carolina may also factor into how much Robinson’s scandal affects the GOP’s chances.

Susan Roberts, a political science professor at Davidson College, told Newsweek that many North Carolinians weren’t born in the state, and the influx of younger professionals could influence voter behavior.

“The demographic profile of North Carolinians is changing,” Roberts said, noting that many of these voters are unaffiliated and could be swayed by Robinson’s controversial views.

While Roberts did not believe Robinson’s troubles will drastically change minds about Trump, she suggested that some voters might skip the gubernatorial race while still casting a vote for president.

“I don’t think Robinson can necessarily pull Trump down,” she said, but acknowledged that unaffiliated voters might start to associate Trump with Robinson’s inflammatory rhetoric.

The Final Verdict? Unclear

For now, experts agree that Trump’s prospects in North Carolina are not entirely tied to Robinson’s fate.

While the scandal may have thrown Robinson’s campaign into turmoil, the real test will be whether it depresses turnout among Republican-leaning voters in a state Trump is likely to need to retake the White House.