Can lake effect snow happen in North Carolina?

Lake effect snow has been a big talker in recent weeks, as it buried parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York in feet of snow around Thanksgiving.

While this phenomenon is common in that part of the country, I wanted to see if it could happen on a smaller scale in North Carolina.

How does lake effect snow happen?

In order to get lake effect snow, you need a specific temperature differential between the surface and the air roughly 3,000 feet above it.

When arctic air moves over these relatively warmer lakes, lake effect snow gets going.

It is intense at times too, analagous to a summertime thunderstorm. In one town, you can have feet of snow. Miles down the road, you can have virtually nothing.

That’s what happened in Buffalo in late November.

The Buffalo Bills measured more than two feet of snow outside their stadium, while downtown Buffalo didn’t receive any measurable snow.

Just look at these totals from that time frame. They were measuring snow in feet in parts of upstate New York!

So…does it happen in North Carolina?

I found a case study by the North Carolina State Climate Office from January 2014.

In it, they show an example in Rocky Mount and Wilson.

Arctic air was blowing in after a prior snow storm (yeah…when those used to happen, right?!). Meanwhile, Kerr Lake was relatively warm compared to the Arctic air above.

According to the Climate Office, this generated an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow in places like Rocky Mount and Wilson.

The scale of lake effect snow in North Carolina is significantly smaller than that of the Great Lakes.

For example, Lake Erie has a surface area of more than six million acres. On average, it is 62 feet deep and oftentimes closer in proximity to Arctic air masses.

In comparison, Kerr Lake has a surface area of 50,000 acres (.08% the size of Lake Erie) and it has an average depth of 30 feet.

Therefore, the moisture load from Kerr Lake is obviously going to be significantly less than that of Lake Erie.

Any lake effect snow off Kerr Lake would be highly localized and minimal on comparison to the mammoth storms they see up north.

Another round of lake effect snow up north

Beyond our cold front this week, we won’t see lake effect snow.

However, there are several places in Michigan, northeast Ohio, western Pennsylvania and upstate New York that will see a healthy dose of lake effect in the days ahead.