Will Kentucky basketball beat Mississippi State today? Our prediction

• Mississippi State guard Josh Hubbard leads the SEC in scoring, averaging 23 points per game.
• Kentucky basketball coach Mark Pope praised Hubbard as an electric scorer and the team’s leading playmaker.
• Kentucky is looking for its first SEC win after an 0-2 start, while Mississippi State is on a six-game winning streak.

LEXINGTON — So much of the focus on Josh Hubbard is his scoring ability.

And rightly so.

Hubbard, a junior guard for Mississippi State, is averaging an SEC-best 23 points per game, which is tied for fifth nationally. But Kentucky basketball coach Mark Pope said Hubbard isn’t simply a scorer.

“He’s their leading assist guy by far,” said Pope, alluding to Hubbard’s 3.7 assists per game, more than twice as many as his closest teammate.

Stream Kentucky vs. Mississippi State

Pope and the Wildcats will try to do their best to keep Hubbard in check tonight as they host the Bulldogs at Rupp Arena.

Hubbard is fresh off scoring 30 points in a home win over Oklahoma. He has two other 30-plus-point efforts this season, while he’s scored 20 or more 10 times. Hubbard has reached double figures in every game but one in 2025-26; he played just two minutes before exiting with an injury versus San Francisco last month.

“So he’s an electric scorer,” Pope said. “He’s their best playmaker, their best assist guy … and he’s bringing it on the defensive end right now. He’s (got) a full, complete game. He’s a little bit undersized (but) he’s got a real physicality to him. He’s got an unbelievable cleverness to his game. Clearly, he shoots it incredibly well.”

Can Kentucky (9-6, 0-2 SEC) stop the bleeding and avoid its third straight loss to start conference play? Or will Mississippi State (10-5, 2-0) pick up its seventh straight victory and remain unbeated versus league foes?

Here’s what to know about the Wildcats’ battle with the Bulldogs tonight in Lexington:

UK and Mississippi State are slated to tip off at 8:30 p.m. today at Rupp Arena.

• Oct. 17: Blue-White game (Click here to read takeaways from the intrasquad scrimmage.)
• Oct. 24: exhibition vs. Purdue (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 78, Purdue 65
• Oct. 30: exhibition vs. Georgetown University (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Georgetown 84, Kentucky 70
• Nov. 4: Nicholls (Rupp Arena) ∣ SCORE: Kentucky 77, Nicholls 51
• Nov. 7: Valparaiso (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Kentucky 107, Valparaiso 59
• Nov. 11: at Louisville (KFC Yum! Center) | SCORE: Louisville 96, Kentucky 88
• Nov. 14: Eastern Illinois (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Kentucky 99, Eastern Illinois 53
• Nov. 18: vs. Michigan State (Champions Classic; Madison Square Garden, New York) | SCORE: Michigan State 83, Kentucky 66
• Nov. 21: Loyola University Maryland (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Kentucky 88, Loyola Maryland 46
• Nov. 26: Tennessee Tech (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Kentucky 104, Tennessee Tech 54
• Dec. 2: North Carolina (Rupp Arena; ACC/SEC Challenge) | SCORE: North Carolina 67, Kentucky 64
• Dec. 5: vs. Gonzaga (Bridgestone Arena; Nashville) | SCORE: Gonzaga 94, Kentucky 59
• Dec. 9: North Carolina Central (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Kentucky 103, North Carolina Central 67
• Dec. 13: Indiana (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Kentucky 72, Indiana 60
• Dec. 20: vs. St. John’s (CBS Sports Classic; State Farm Arena, Atlanta) | SCORE: Kentucky 78, St. John’s 66
• Dec. 23: Bellarmine (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Kentucky 99, Bellarmine 85
• Jan. 3: at Alabama | SCORE: Alabama 89, Kentucky 74
• Jan. 7: Missouri (Rupp Arena) | SCORE: Missouri 73, Kentucky 68
• Jan. 10: Mississippi State (Rupp Arena), 8:30 p.m.
• Jan. 14: at LSU, 7 p.m.
• Jan. 17: at Tennessee, noon
• Jan. 21: Texas (Rupp Arena), 7 p.m.
• Jan. 24: Ole Miss (Rupp Arena), noon
• Jan. 27: at Vanderbilt, 9 p.m.
• Jan. 31: at Arkansas, 6:30 p.m.
• Feb. 4: Oklahoma (Rupp Arena), 9 p.m.
• Feb. 7: Tennessee (Rupp Arena), 8:30 p.m.
• Feb. 14: at Florida, 3 p.m.
• Feb. 17: Georgia (Rupp Arena), 9 p.m.
• Feb. 21: at Auburn, 8:30 p.m.
• Feb. 24: at South Carolina, 7 p.m.
• Feb. 28: Vanderbilt (Rupp Arena), 2 p.m.
• March 3: at Texas A&M, 7 p.m.
• March 7: Florida (Rupp Arena), 4 p.m.

Record: 9-6 (0-2 SEC)

Betting odds: Kentucky is a 10⅟₂-point favorite (-102) on DraftKings, which set the over/under at 152 ⅟₂ points (-105). 

Kentucky 77, Mississippi State 75: According to KenPom.com, the Wildcats have a 79% chance to best the Bulldogs. But that’s almost the exact percentage (80) the site listed for Kentucky to top Missouri on Wednesday. (You don’t need to remind UK fans how that one turned out.) The situation is becoming increasingly dire for Kentucky, which is 0-2 in SEC play for the first time since 2005-06. It’s 2-5 in Quad 1 games this season. And has had multiple embarrassing performances in marquee matchups (Louisville, Gonzaga and Michigan State spring to mind.) Tonight is a contest UK can’t afford to lose. And it won’t. But the Wildcats will keep their anxious fans biting their nails until the final possession, when Hubbard’s 3 clanks off the rim to help the hosts escape with a two-point win.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.