What to watch for in Arkansas-Mississippi State

FAYETTEVILLE — After notching back-to-back street wins over South Carolina and Kentucky within the final week, Arkansas is returning dwelling.

The Razorbacks are set to host Mississippi State at 5 p.m. on Saturday as they give the impression of being to increase their successful streak contained in the SEC to 6 video games. The matchup will mark Arkansas’ first in Bud Walton Area on a weekend with a day tipoff since Dec. 3.

Listed here are a handful of issues to regulate:

• Arkansas’ inside protection

The Razorbacks are gearing as much as face one other big-bodied menace within the frontcourt, and their subsequent job is slowing the Bulldogs’ Tolu Smith.

A 6-11 ahead averaging 12.9 factors and seven.6 rebounds per sport in SEC play, Smith is the reigning SEC participant of the week after placing up 20 factors and 10 boards in a pair of wins final week. He has scored 25-plus factors twice in Mississippi State’s four-game successful streak.

Arkansas’ entrance line, notably Makhi and Makhel Mitchell, needs to be beaming with confidence after combining to restrict Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe to seven factors and 7 rebounds on Tuesday. The Razorbacks will probably rely closely on them once more.

Smith averaged 14.5 factors and 6 rebounds in 2 video games in opposition to Arkansas a season in the past. He went for 18 factors and 6 rebounds in Starkville, Miss., however the Razorbacks annoyed him within the rematch.

In his final journey to Bud Walton Area, the ahead had 11 factors and made solely 2 of 8 subject purpose makes an attempt.

“You’ve bought to have the ability to defensively defend the paint, beginning with Tolu Smith inside,” Arkansas coach Eric Musselman stated Wednesday. “Definitely coming into Mississippi State, the post-up sport, particularly of Smith, is of the best significance to us.”

Based on Hoop-Math knowledge, Smith has scored 120 occasions on the rim this season and made 68.2% of his makes an attempt. Just one different Bulldogs participant has greater than 50 such buckets.

On the flip aspect, Smith will face a protection that allowed its final 5 SEC opponents to make simply 58.2% of its seems to be on the rim and 23.3% of all different makes an attempt within the lane, per CBB Analytics. The Razorbacks personal a block charge of 14.4% throughout their successful streak.

Mississippi State has made not less than 56% of its two-point tries within the final 5 video games.

On condition that the Bulldogs personal the worst in-league three-point proportion (24.5%), their finest wager is to work for a high quality inside try. And which will play proper into Arkansas’ fingers.

• Jordan Walsh

The freshman wing, in the end, seems to be discovering a rhythm.

Walsh reached double figures in scoring in opposition to Texas A&M and Kentucky, and grabbed 10 rebounds in Arkansas’ first street win of the season in opposition to South Carolina. The Razorbacks are plus-16 in his time within the lineup the final three video games, together with plus-10 on Tuesday.

“I believe whether or not a participant begins or comes off the bench, you need that participant to be mentally engaged, be capable to are available and have an effect proper when he checks in, get into the circulation of the sport offensively, however make an impression on the boards, make an impression working the ground, make an impression defensively,” Musselman stated Wednesday. “Definitely, we really feel like Jordan has performed that.”

CBB Analytics knowledge exhibits Arkansas has an offensive score of 113.0 with Walsh on the ground the final 5 video games. The Razorbacks, too, rebounded one-third of their misses in his run and boosted their free throw charge (free throws tried divided by subject targets tried) to 40%, up from 22.6% when he sat.

Musselman gave Walsh credit score after the win at Kentucky for his motion with out the basketball and defensive vitality.

“I believe he retains getting higher and higher,” Musselman added. “When he performs with the vitality we’ve seen of late, he actually, actually impacts the sport on three ranges — offensively, defensively after which on the backboards, each offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding.”

On Saturday, he might discover himself matched up in opposition to Mississippi State’s 6-7 forwards DJ Jeffries and Cameron Matthews, who’re second and third on the crew in rebounding in league video games. Limiting their effectiveness on the glass could also be his prime precedence.

Jeffries is coming off an 18-point night time in opposition to LSU during which he knocked down 5 threes and completed with 7 rebounds and 4 assists. Walsh’s versatility as a defender might actually come into play on this matchup.

“He’s sort of an X-factor for us,” Musselman added. “When Jordan performs rather well, we develop into a a lot, a lot better crew on each side of the ball.”

• Razorbacks’ quick-strike offense

Arkansas has been irritating to look at at occasions in transition this season, however much less so throughout its successful stretch within the SEC.

The Razorbacks have averaged 14.2 fast-break factors per sport of their final 5 league outings. Highs in that span embody 21 in opposition to Texas A&M and 20 at Kentucky.

That per-game determine jumps to 14.8 factors of their six wins contained in the convention. In Arkansas’ 5 SEC losses, it plummets to five.0 per sport.

Mississippi State will enter the weekend boasting the nation’s No. 4 protection by way of effectivity, permitting 89.8 factors per 100 possessions. The Bulldogs, too, are No. 3 in in-conference defensive effectivity, so the Razorbacks profiting from transition alternatives could possibly be very important.

Based on CBB Analytics, Arkansas has scored at a 1.42 point-per-possession clip within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock within the final 5 video games. It’s 40 of 46 on two-point makes an attempt and a couple of of 6 past the arc.

The Razorbacks within the final 5 video games have additionally scored shortly in different methods. Based on CBB Analytics, they’ve operated at a 1.17 PPP charge on 18 scoring possibilities out of timeouts, and 1.14 PPP when possessing the ball first to start a half.

“I believe we attempt to take quite a lot of delight in our opening play of the sport,” Musselman stated Wednesday. “We attempt to run a play that we’ve by no means run earlier than to start out each sport, a brand new set. After which we really feel prefer it’s necessary to get an excellent shot to start out the second half, whether or not you’ve gotten the ball to start out or in case your first offensive possession is after a defensive possession.

“Then actually after timeouts…offensively, we need to attempt to do the identical factor and attempt to rating off perhaps a wrinkle that the opposition hasn’t seen.”

• Ball safety

Creating turnovers has been a key ingredient in first-year Mississippi State coach Chris Jans’ recipe for fulfillment on the defensive finish.

The Bulldogs are eleventh nationally in turnover charge, inflicting a miscue on 23.6% of opponents’ possessions, per KenPom. They’re additionally No. 1 in SEC video games in turnover charge.

Mississippi State is forcing 15.5 turnovers per sport this season and averages 9.5 steals.

Valuing the basketball on every possession figures to be a should for Arkansas if it hopes to safe a sixth straight league win.

“You’ve bought to be ready for physicality,” Musselman stated Wednesday. “It is a crew that likes to create steals. It’s a high-gamble crew defensively. They soar in passing lanes. They attempt to management the tempo of play.”

Apparently, the Bulldogs have 4 of the league’s prime 10 gamers by way of steal charge, in line with KenPom knowledge, in Dashawn Davis (third), Shakeel Moore (fifth), Cameron Matthews (sixth) and DJ Jeffries (tenth).

Davis has recorded a number of steals in 8 of the final 9 SEC video games, and Moore has 3 three-plus steal video games contained in the league. Matthews led with 5 steals in Wednesday’s win over LSU and has 8 complete within the final 2 video games.

The Razorbacks have performed a good job lately limiting turnovers past their prime three ball handlers. Anthony Black, Davonte Davis and Ricky Council have to be certain in decision-making and powerful with the ball.

And the identical could be stated for individuals who might be on the ground with them given the best way the Bulldogs generate takeaways at a number of positions.