The Six Pack: Texas A&M-Mississippi State, Oklahoma State-Baylor among best Week 5 college football picks

I had hoped that following a 5-1 efficiency in Week 3, The Course of had damaged by just a few weeks of mediocrity and was prepared to begin sprinting. It was not. As a substitute, issues went the wrong way. The Six Pack went 2-4 final week, narrowly avoiding a 1-5 consequence.

So I suppose it might’ve been worse?

Whereas the outcomes weren’t what I hoped for, I can at the very least take away just a few classes. Essentially the most outstanding one is that Maryland may genuinely be good this 12 months. Not win the Large Ten good — dropping to Michigan hurts these probabilities severely — however presumably the fourth- or fifth-best workforce within the convention. Possibly if we be taught at the very least one lesson like this each week, we’ll be capable to go 6-0 as soon as earlier than the tip of the season!

Possibly it will even occur this week. There’s just one method to discover out. Let’s get to the picks. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. 

Video games of the Week

No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss: I do not belief both of those groups very a lot. Kentucky is perhaps a top-10 workforce within the AP Ballot, however I concern for the game if it is one of many 10 greatest groups within the nation proper now. The Wildcats struggled to get by Northern Illinois final week, and it was not because of any fluke. It is an offense that struggles to maneuver the ball persistently and lacks explosive performs. That is not Ole Miss’ drawback; the Rebels rank tenth nationally in explosive play charge and have been significantly distinctive on the bottom. The issue is Ole Miss hasn’t performed anyone but. Its greatest win is both a 42-0 shutout over a Georgia Tech workforce that simply fired its coach, or final week’s eight-point win over Tulsa.

Neither evokes a lot confidence. Ultimately, I believe Ole Miss’ offense is nice, however inferior to it is seemed, and it’ll have a a lot harder time towards Kentucky. With the Rebels’ offense more likely to decelerate, mixed with little religion in Kentucky’s offense to do something particular, the underneath makes for an interesting play. Ole Miss 27, Kentucky 17 | Beneath 54

Featured Recreation | Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 16 Baylor: Baylor is a tricky workforce to determine offensively. On a per-snap foundation, the workforce’s EPA ranks thirteenth nationally. That is nice! Its success charge of fifty.2% ranks fifteenth. That is additionally excellent! However that very same offense ranks a hundred and fifth in explosive play charge. What does it imply? Properly, it means the Bears are overly reliant on stacking profitable play after profitable play to maintain lengthy drives. Additionally, Baylor’s conversion charge of 39.1% is effectively above the nationwide common of 26.2%, and I don’t suggest counting on changing third-and-long. It hardly ever works for lengthy, significantly whenever you run into good defenses.

Oklahoma State’s protection has not been pretty much as good as final 12 months, however it’s nonetheless above common. A few of that is because of its schedule, however basically it is a sound unit. We noticed these groups play two shut video games towards one another final season, and I would not be stunned if this 12 months’s assembly appears to be like comparable. In that scenario, I will take the factors. Oklahoma State 31, Baylor 28 | Oklahoma State +2

Lock of the Week

Featured Recreation | Air Power Falcons vs. Navy Midshipmen

Navy at Air Power: We arrive at a long-standing custom … and one I concern will come to an finish quickly. Hopefully, simply not this weekend. For these new to The Six Pack, Service Academy Unders have lengthy been a staple of our weight-reduction plan. The idea is straightforward. Service academies run choice offenses. Which means they run the ball extra usually than each different workforce within the nation. Air Power is No. 1 within the nation with an 89.1% run charge, whereas Navy is third at 82.9%. Military is second. No different workforce runs the ball greater than 70% of the time (UMass is at 69.6%). When groups run the ball, the clock does not cease. When the clock does not cease, it limits general possessions. When there are fewer possessions in a sport, fewer factors are scored.

Additionally, whereas choice offense can provide the academies an edge towards different groups that are not used to it, that is not the case right here. These defenses face choice assaults each day in follow. Put these elements collectively and this is what you get: the underneath has gone 41-9-1 in video games between the service academies since 2005. The priority is books have caught on and begun decreasing totals for these video games in latest seasons. It hasn’t stopped the unders from cashing, however they’re going to crack the code ultimately. Till they do, we trip the wave. Air Power 20, Navy 13 | Beneath 37.5

Underdog of the Week

Featured Recreation | Kansas Jayhawks vs. Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State at Kansas: Talking of driving waves, I have been on Kansas all season lengthy and I am not stopping now. The Jayhawks received and coated once more final week, enhancing to 4-0 on the season straight up and towards the unfold. They’ve coated by a mean of 17.5 factors per sport. Nonetheless, regardless that it ought to be apparent to all people by now that this workforce is lots higher than anticipated, it is a residence canine this weekend towards an Iowa State workforce that sits exterior the highest 50 nationally in each offensive and defensive success charge.

The Cyclones have been the Large 12’s plucky underdog over the previous couple of seasons, however regardless of their 3-0 begin and win over Iowa, they don’t seem to be the identical workforce this 12 months. Kansas has taken over their position within the Large 12, and I imagine Kansas to be the higher workforce on this sport. Not markedly higher, however the Jayhawks’ offense would be the greatest unit on the sphere. That makes it laborious to move up the Jayhawks catching factors. Kansas 31, Iowa State 30 | Kansas +3

Friday Evening Fade of the Week

Featured Recreation | Boise State Broncos vs. San Diego State Aztecs

San Diego State at Boise State: Boise State is a prepare wreck, however the market hasn’t figured it out but. Final week, the Broncos misplaced to UTEP 27-10. The efficiency was so lackluster it led to the firing of the workforce’s offensive coordinator, Tim Plough. The choice to fireplace Plough brought about the workforce’s beginning QB, Hank Bachmeier, to enter the switch portal.

It isn’t an important signal when your beginning QB is peacing out after the primary month of the season! Contemplating how poor Boise has seemed and that its lone wins have come towards New Mexico and UT Martin, this is not a workforce that ought to be favored by a landing towards anyone proper now. Not even at residence. No, the blue turf doesn’t present the identical benefit it used to; Boise is barely 6-4 at residence because the 2020 season and 4-6 ATS. San Diego State 23, Boise State 20 | San Diego State +6.5

Upset of the Week

Featured Recreation | Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas A&M Aggies

No. 17 Texas A&M at Mississippi State: I’ve not been an avid supporter of Texas A&M this season, and I imagine my issues concerning the Aggies have been justified. It isn’t simply the loss to Appalachian State; it is the offense general. Even in wins, the Aggies have been dreadful with the ball, and so they rank 106th nationally in level per drive, 107th in success charge and 88th in EPA per snap.

But right here I’m, taking them as my upset choose! Whereas Mississippi State’s offensive numbers have been robust, they’re severely missing within the explosive play division. That may very well be an issue towards this Texas A&M protection. Additionally, when you have a look at the Bulldogs’ résumé, the perfect win is over Memphis. In opposition to LSU, the Bulldogs struggled to maneuver the ball, and I can see that scenario repeating right here. Texas A&M wins this sport usually sufficient to make this a worthy guess. Texas A&M 27, Mississippi State 21 | Texas A&M (+148)

Which faculty soccer picks are you able to make with confidence in Week 5, and which top-10 favourite will go down laborious? Go to SportsLine to see which groups will win and canopy the unfold — all from a confirmed pc mannequin that has returned greater than $3,100 in revenue over the previous six-plus seasons — and discover out.