South Carolina football vs Mississippi State: Our score prediction for Week 4 SEC game is in

COLUMBIA — South Carolina football will have plenty of connections on the opposite sideline when Mississippi State comes to Williams-Brice Stadium this weekend.

The Gamecocks (1-2, 0-1 SEC) host the Bulldogs (2-1, 0-1) for the first time in a decade on Saturday (7:30 p.m., SEC Network), and South Carolina won the 2013 meeting 34-16. Coach Shane Beamer started his career as an assistant at Mississippi State from 2004-06, and starting linebacker Stone Blanton was committed to play baseball and football for the Bulldogs before flipping his commitment to Beamer in 2022.

South Carolina leads the all-time series with Mississippi State 9-7 after winning seven consecutive meetings from 2000-13. However, the Bulldogs won 27-14 the last time the teams played in Starkville in 2016. Mississippi State’s last win in Columbia was a 38-0 shutout in 1998.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Bulldogs ahead of Saturday’s matchup:

Will Rogers’ impact post-air raid offense

Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers entered the season on pace to break the SEC’s all-time passing record, but the senior is coming off one of the worst games of his career last week against LSU. Rogers went 11-of-28 passing for 103 yards and zero touchdowns, his first performance under 200 yards as a starter.

First-year coach Zach Arnett is attempting to reinvent Mississippi State’s offense behind a quarterback that thrived in Mike Leach’s signature air raid system. Rogers has no mobility with minus-350 net rushing yards and one rushing touchdown over the previous three seasons, so South Carolina’s pass rush needs to rise to the occasion after a disappointing start.

Can South Carolina stop Mississippi State running game?

South Carolina’s running defense is among the worst in the country, allowing an average of 145.7 rushing yards per game, led by 190 at Georgia last week. The Gamecocks’ limited depth at linebacker means Debo Williams and Blanton are playing nearly every snap, and the defense gave up more rushing yards after halftime against both Georgia and North Carolina.

Mississippi State’s rushing offense is led by senior Jo’quavious Marks, who ranks No. 11 nationally with 325 rushing yards. He logged 75 yards on just eight carries in the Bulldogs’ loss to LSU. Marks is also a receiving threat with at least 250 yards in each of the last three seasons, and he’s Mississippi State’s best chance to keep pace with South Carolina’s explosiveness.

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Mississippi State defense fueled by turnovers

Mississippi State leads the SEC in forced turnovers through three games with four interceptions and two fumble recoveries but has also given up nearly 390 yards per game. LSU QB Jayden Daniels shredded a secondary struggling to replace first-round NFL Draft pick Emmanuel Forbes, and the Gamecocks’ passing game is flourishing under a much-improved Spencer Rattler.

The Bulldogs’ linebacker duo of Jett Johnson and Nathaniel Watson are a force to be reckoned with, tied for first in the SEC in tackles with 31 apiece. They also each have two sacks, and Mississippi State’s best chance to slow Rattler down is with heavy pressure. South Carolina has given up 13 sacks in three games and will start at least one freshman on the offensive line in Week 4.

South Carolina-Mississippi State score prediction

South Carolina 35, Mississippi State 28: Rattler has another dominant performance at Williams-Brice Stadium, connecting with three different receivers in the end zone. Marks keeps Mississippi State afloat with two touchdowns, but the Gamecocks protect a wire-to-wire lead.