Ole Miss football vs Mississippi State score prediction, scouting report in 2024 Egg Bowl

OXFORD — There’s always an added element of intensity in the Egg Bowl.

It will be important for Ole Miss football (8-3, 4-3) to find an extra gear against Mississippi State (2-9, 0-7 SEC) in Friday’s rivalry matchup (2:30 p.m., ABC). The Rebels are coming off a deflating loss at Florida that left Ole Miss’ College Football Playoff hopes hanging by a thread.

Mississippi State is slogging through a difficult year under first-year head coach Jeff Lebby. While first-year head coaches have fared surprisingly well in Egg Bowl games over the years, the Rebels will be heavy favorites at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on Black Friday. The game is just the second Egg Bowl in eight years not to be played on Thanksgiving.

Let’s dive into the matchup:

Why Jaxson Dart, Rebels’ offense should be able to extend drives

Usually defenses that force opposing into offenses into third-down situations fare well. For Mississippi State, completing the job on third down has been difficult.

The Bulldogs have allowed SEC opponents to convert on 70 of 147 third downs. That is 47.6%, and the worst mark in the SEC. Ole Miss’ defense, by comparison, is No. 5 in the SEC at 32%.

More broadly, the Bulldogs’ defense has been getting gashed in SEC play. Mississippi State has allowed 40.7 points per SEC game. Even if star Ole Miss receiver Tre Harris is out because of an injury, the Rebels have a good opportunity to light up the scoreboard like they did in a 63-31 win at Arkansas.

Can Ole Miss rack up the sacks, keep Dart upright?

Stats indicate Friday’s game will be easier for Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart than Mississippi State quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr.

Mississippi State has allowed 35 sacks against SEC opponents. The inverse also bodes poorly for the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is last in the SEC in sacks. In 11 SEC games, the Bulldogs have just eight.

To make it harder on Van Buren Jr., Ole Miss’ defense leads the SEC in sacks. Look for him to get pressured early and often by a ferocious defensive line. There could − and maybe should − be two or three Rebels with multiple sacks in the Egg Bowl.

Rebels rushers Princely Umanmielen and Suntarine Perkins are prime candidates to feast. They each have 10.5 sacks, which ties them for No. 6 in the nation.

Will Ole Miss try to run up the score on the Bulldogs?

Aside from satisfying its fan base in a heated rivalry, Ole Miss has another reason to try to win big against Mississippi State. It’s the Rebels’ last chance to impress the College Football Playoff Committee.

Because of chaos in Week 13, the Rebels can still cling to an outside shot at making the College Football Playoff. While the Rebels will need other teams to lose Saturday, a dominating win Friday will only help their case.

On the flip side, even a narrow win against a Mississippi State team that hasn’t won a Power Four game this season would make it easier for the committee to exclude the Rebels.

Ole Miss football vs Mississippi State Egg Bowl score prediction

Ole Miss 42, Mississippi State 9: Each of the Rebels’ SEC games has resulted in one of two things: a close loss or blowout win. Expect the latter in the final regular season game at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Ole Miss has the pass rush to create turnovers that will overwhelm an outmatched Bulldogs team.

Sam Hutchens covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at Shutchens@gannett.com or reach him on X at @Sam_Hutchens_