Mississippi State football: schedule breakdown and predictions for 2024 season

The 2024 Mississippi State football season kicks-off this Saturday, and our contributors here at Maroon and White Nation got together to preview the season. Chase Brumfield, Reed Green, and Andrew Miller answered a long series of questions to give their takes on the team.

First they discussed Jeff Lebby’s new-look offense. Then, they dove into a somewhat questionable Bulldog defense. Now, they’re breaking down the schedule.

Mississippi State plays a very difficult schedule this year with trips to Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss. They’ll also face ranked Texas A&M and Missouri squads in Starkville. That’s going to be tough to get through!

But the non-conference slate of Eastern Kentucky, at Arizona State, Toledo, and UMass should be manageable, as State will be favorites in all four games. And with tossup games against Florida and Arkansas in Starkville, finding a path to a bowl isn’t out of the question.

How does the Maroon and White Nation team feel about the Bulldogs’ schedule? Here are thoughts on State’s draw, some of their biggest games, and their official record predictions for the 2024 season…

Mississippi State plays one of the most difficult schedules in the country, facing six preseason ranked teams. But the non-conference slate seems manageable, and they get some winnable SEC games at home. Can they navigate this slate enough to have a successful year (however you define success)?

Chase: I don’t think State can navigate this challenging schedule without difficulties. State must stay sharp consistently, or opponents will take advantage. However, this experience will prepare them for next season. The adversity they face this year will be crucial in determining their success in future seasons.

Reed: I think they can navigate their conference schedule this season. They have winnable games at home versus Florida and Arkansas, and they get Missouri and Texas A&M at home too. If they go 2-2 in this stretch, then this would be a successful first season in conference play.

Andrew: It’s a brutal schedule for a brand new team, but they could find a way to work through it to a successful year. The non-conference games are very winnable and they get a pair of toss-up SEC games at home. If they can come together quickly enough to pull off those wins, they could find a way to a bowl.

What is the most important game on MSU’s 2024 schedule?

Chase: The most important game on MSU’s 2024 schedule is against Ole Miss. This enduring rivalry carries significant stakes. A defining win over Ole Miss in Lebby’s first year would provide a major boost and offer a lot for the Bulldogs to look forward to.

Reed: Arizona State. If they win this, I believe 6-6 and even 7-5 is on the table for them. If they lose this game then they will have to upset somebody to make a bowl game.

Andrew: Florida. Beating the Gators would likely mean State would be 4-0 with UMass and a beatable Arkansas team left on the schedule. That’s a clear path to a bowl game. Lose to Florida, and now a major upset is necessary to find six wins.

If the Bulldogs were to spring a major upset this fall, in which game do you see that as being most likely?

Chase: The Bulldogs have a chance to pull off an upset in their home game against Mizzou on November 23rd. Mizzou could be vulnerable at this point in the season. With nothing to lose, State has an opportunity to surprise Mizzou if they’re not fully focused.

Reed: Texas A&M. They are still super talented, but they also have a new head coach taking over for them. State has also been successful at home versus the Aggies since they joined the SEC. Every single time, Texas A&M has had a more successful team, but they’ve only won twice in 2012 and 2020 in Starkville.

Andrew: I’ll echo Chase and say Mizzou. The Tigers seem to be a regression candidate in 2024 with the losses suffered on defense. The schedule sets up favorably for State in this game too, so if a big upset is to be had, it’s most likely to come vs Mizzou.

What are your overall expectations for MSU football this year? Not a record prediction (we’ll get to that shortly) but simply what you expect to see of the team on the field. 

Chase: My overall expectation for MSU football this year, specifically on the field, is that it will be different. A new wave of excitement is in the air for Stark Vegas, which will translate to improved performance on the field. This momentum will carry into next season and beyond.

Reed: I expect to see an exciting offense that will move the ball in almost every game, if not every game. I think Shapen will surprise people with his strong arm and quarterback play. I also expect the defense to be about what they always are at State, with the exception of 2018, and that is a bend but don’t break defense.

Andrew: If nothing else, I’m expecting the Bulldogs to be entertaining. The offense should be a ton of fun and keep them in games. I’ve made it clear I’m low on the defense, but that just means playing lots of shootouts which are fun! Beyond wins and losses, the product on the field should be worth tuning in for, which is an improvement for the program.

Alright the time has come to make your official prediction for the 2024 Mississippi State football season. Give us the Bulldogs’ final record, both overall and in SEC play. 

Chase: I predict the Bulldog’s final record will be 5-7 and 2-6 (SEC) for the 2024 season.

Reed: My final prediction for Mississippi State is 5-7 overall and 1-7 in the conference.

Andrew: Well I was hoping at least one person would be optimistic enough to predict State bowling, so we weren’t total pessimists. But I too have MSU 5-7 (1-7 SEC). I think they’ll win their non-conference games but split the UF and Arkansas games. I won’t rule out winning both nor would I rule out them springing a big upset. But I’ll go safe on the prediction and say they just miss a bowl in year one despite being clearly improved.