“If” has often been the refrain for many Mississippi Democrats after losing statewide elections, as they have done with regularity since 2003.

“If we only had a candidate who could energize true Democrats to the polls, we could win those statewide elections,” is a paraphrase of the full refrain.

That “if” has to be in the back of Lowndes County District Attorney Scott Colom’s mind as the Democrat campaigns to upend incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in the November midterm election.

In short, what Colom has to ponder is some people’s belief that a lot of Mississippians support many of the principles of national Democrats but are not voting because Mississippi candidates generally avoid those issues or campaign with a more conservative bent.

Colom’s already herculean task is made even more difficult by the fact that independent Ty Pinkins, a former Democrat, is also in the race and could possibly siphon votes from him.

Colom, obviously, needs every Democratic vote in his bid to upset Hyde-Smith and become the first Democratic senator from Mississippi since the 1980s and the first Black Mississippi senator since the 1800s.

Recent Democratic campaigns

Former Attorney General Jim Hood, the last Mississippi Democrat to win a statewide election, was accused of not embracing his party as he campaigned with his hunting dog, rifle and pickup truck in his 2019 loss to Republican Tate Reeves in the governor’s race.

After the 2023 election, former Northern District Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley faced much of the same criticism after his unsuccessful attempt to defeat Reeves. Most would concede that Presley ran closer to the national Democratic Party than did Hood.

The results, though, were close to the same.

In his 2020 campaign against Hyde-Smith, former U.S. Rep. Mike Espy came closer to running as a national Democrat than both Presley and Hood. For that effort, Espy garnered more votes than any Democrat in a statewide campaign since Bill Waller in his victorious 1971 gubernatorial race.

But Espy garnered a lower percentage of votes in a higher-turnout election than did Hood or Moore.

In 2019, Reeves defeated Hood 52% to 47%, or by a little more than 45,000 votes. In a lower-turnout election four years later, Reeves beat Presley 51% to 48%, or by fewer than 27,000 votes.

In the 2020 Senate election, Hyde-Smith won 54% to 44%, or by fewer than 131,000 votes in the highest turnout election in the state’s history. Remember, Espy garnered more votes than any Democrat since Waller in the 1971 gubernatorial election.

What the numbers mean for midterm election

Based on the numbers, can the argument be confirmed that some Mississippians are sitting at home on election day who could sway the election to a Democrat if they could be inspired to go to the polls?

In considering that question, it is important to keep in mind that Mississippi is generally near the bottom each election cycle in terms of voter participation.

According to the University of Florida Election Lab, nationally 66.4% of eligible voters cast a ballot in 2020. That year 60.6% of eligible Mississippians did so.

If Mississippians had equaled that national participation in 2020, an additional 126,500 people would have voted.

If that had occurred and all the additional voters had cast Espy ballots, which of course would not have happened, he still would have lost to Hyde-Smith by about 5,000 votes.

But that was a presidential election, and by happenstance an election that set both a national and Mississippi record for the number of voters. A midterm election, such as the upcoming Colom vs. Hyde-Smith contest, is a different story. The turnout will be much lower – perhaps closer to a Mississippi gubernatorial turnout.

In that instance, new voters perhaps could make a difference for Colom if – there is that word again –  he could equal Presley’s or even Hood’s performance.

Colom, though, must walk that fine line of attracting those mysterious hard-to-find Mississippi progressives while not scaring away moderate voters who might be considering him in the current political environment where Trump and the Republicans have lost some of their luster nationally and perhaps even in true-red Mississippi.

If – if – Colom could accomplish those goals, perhaps he could give Mississippi Democrats something to cheer about for the first time in a long time.

Bobby Harrison, Mississippi Today’s senior capitol reporter, covers politics, government and the Mississippi State Legislature. He can be reached at [email protected]

GULFPORT, Miss. (WLOX) — Gas prices in Mississippi have fallen ahead of the Fourth of July holiday weekend, with AAA reporting the average price for regular unleaded at $3.46 a gallon, down eight cents from last week.

Prices along the coast are even lower.

AAA spokesman Don Redman said the drop is tied to a decline in crude oil prices.

“We’ve definitely seen a decrease statewide,” Redman said.

Redman said lower crude oil prices can mean lower gas prices, since crude oil is used to make gasoline.

“When we were at the height of this war, we touched over $115 a barrel, but we’re currently looking at $70 a barrel and that absolutely has had an impact,” Redman said.

AAA said prices had been higher in recent weeks because of uncertainty in the global oil market, including the conflict in Iran.

Gulfport-area driver David Depreo said the lower prices are a welcome change from paying more than $3.50 a gallon.

“It sure is nice to see this,” Depreo said.

Depreo said the higher prices had taken a financial toll on his family.

“It’s put pressure on everybody. I’m retired, but I have younger children with kids and it’s a struggle for them,” Depreo said.

He said the savings will add up at the pump.

“I’m gonna probably save $10–$15. I fill up every half a tank and keep a full tank,” Depreo said.

Redman said drivers are not out of the woods yet.

“I think we’re always going to be in a state of flexibility in terms of prices and seeing that light at the end of the tunnel really will come when a permanent treaty is signed with Iran,” Redman said.

AAA expects more than 60 million Americans to hit the road this holiday weekend.

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WASHINGTON – The U.S. Supreme Court backed on Monday state laws that allow mail-in ballots received after Election Day to be counted, rejecting a Republican-led challenge to a five-day grace period in Mississippi and dealing a setback to President Donald Trump.