Michigan State basketball vs Miss. State in March Madness: Prediction for 2024 NCAA opener

Michigan State men’s basketball vs. Mississippi State

Breaking down Friday’s West Region first-round game between No. 9 Michigan State and No. 8 Mississippi State:

Records: No. 9 Michigan State (19-14, 10-10 Big Ten); No. 8 Mississippi State (21-13, 8-10 Southeastern Conference).

Fast facts: 12:15 p.m. Thursday; Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina.

TV: CBS.

TUNE IN: Watch NCAA tournament games on TNT, TBS and truTV

At stake: Winner faces winner of 1-seed North Carolina vs. 16-seed Howard or 16-seed Wagner on Saturday for spot in Sweet 16 in Los Angeles.

THE LINE: Michigan State basketball opens as slight gambling favorite over Mississippi State

PRINT YOUR BRACKET: March Madness schedule, how to watch the NCAA tournament

About MSU

Location: East Lansing.

Coach: Tom Izzo (29 seasons at MSU, 706-294 career).

School tournament record: 72-35 in 36 appearances.

Past 10 games: 5-5.

Scoring leaders: Tyson Walker, 18.2 points per game; Malik Hall, 12.6; A.J. Hoggard, 11.

Rebounding leaders: Hall, 5.6 rebounds per game; Mady Sissoko, 5.1; Carson Cooper, 4.6.

Assist leaders: Hoggard, 5.2 assists per game; Walker, 2.9; Tre Holloman, 2.5.

3-point leaders: Holloman, 41.8%; Walker, 37.3%; Akins, 36%.

The buzz: After losing to Kansas State in overtime of last year’s Sweet 16, MSU entered this season as a top-five pick and embraced national championship ambitions. Instead, it immediately suffered through an inconsistent, wild winter. The Spartans dropped their season-opener at home to James Madison, then lost their Big Ten opener at home to Wisconsin. Sophomore center Jaxon Kohler missed the first 14 games after October foot surgery, and freshman point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. was lost for the season after he was shot and suffered non-life threatening injuries Dec. 23. MSU was 9-7 overall and 1-4 in conference play after losing Jan. 11 at Illinois, then won eight of its next 10 games, including beating the top-10 Illini at Breslin Center on Feb. 14. But the Spartans then lost back-to-back home games to Iowa and Ohio State and closed the regular season losing four of five, then split two games at the Big Ten tournament. Walker’s scoring numbers have plummeted — since averaging 20 points per game over his first 17 games this season, the senior is averaging just 16.1 points and shooting 39.4% in the past 15 games. And junior Jaden Akins, since making 7 of 10 3-pointers against Michigan on Jan. 30, is shooting just 30.5% from deep in his past 12 games.

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About Mississippi State

Location: Starkville, Mississippi

Coach: Chris Jans (42-26 in two seasons at Mississippi State, 185-70 in eight seasons overall).

School tournament record: 11-12 in 12 appearances.

Past 10 games: 5-5.

Scoring leaders: Josh Hubbard, 17.1 points per game; Tolu Smith III, 15.2; Cameron Matthews, 9.5.

Rebounding leaders: Smith, 8.4 rebounds per game; Matthews, 6.9; D.J. Jeffries, 5.7.

Assist leaders: Matthews, 2.9 assists per game; Dashawn Davis, 2.6; Shakeel Moore, 1.8.

3-point leaders: Hubbard, 38.7%; Trey Fort, 34.9%; Moore, 34.8%.

The buzz: Much like the Spartans, the other MSU has battled inconsistent play throughout the season. The Bulldogs defeated No. 6 Tennessee, 73-56, in Friday’s SEC tournament quarterfinals before losing to eventual champion Auburn in Saturday’s semifinals, 73-66. Mississippi State also defeated the Vols, a No. 2 seed in the NCAAs, in January while also earning regular-season wins against the Big Ten’s Northwestern and Rutgers and NCAA qualifier Washington State. The Bulldogs had two non-SEC losses, against Georgia Tech and Southern, along with a 2-11 mark against the other seven NCAA qualifiers in their conference. With the Spartans already struggling to shoot beyond the arc, they run into one of the nation’s best at defending it from deep. The Bulldogs are seventh in Division I in allowing opponents to make just 29.4% of their 3-point attempts and are 52nd at 41.6% field-goal percentage defense. They also are one of the better offensive rebounding squads at 12.44 per game, which ranks 39th nationally, and 28th in rebounding margin at plus-5.9. Mississippi State scores 74.8 points a contest while giving up 69.1 to opponents. Hubbard, a 5-foot-10 freshman guard, is averaging 25.4 points a game over his past eight.

Prediction

In the battle of MSU’s, it is the Spartans’ veterans who harness lessons learned all winter and make the clutch plays down the stretch to advance to a showdown with 1-seed North Carolina. The pick: Michigan State 69, Mississippi State 65.

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

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