Lower Mississippi Valley Drought To See Rain | Weather.com

Rain will soak parts of the Mississippi River Valley suffering from drought and low water levels, but it won’t be nearly enough to turn the tide of what’s been an exceptionally dry summer for some.

M​ississippi River levels are near historic lows. For the second year in a row, stretches of the Mississippi River have sunk to near record low levels from near the confluence of the Ohio River to Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi.

O​ne reason that’s important is this shallower stretch of the river won’t accommodate the usual volume of barge traffic. According to the Associated Press, roughly 60% of the nation’s grain exports travel by barge down the Mississippi River. The low levels make it more expensive either to float fewer, lighter barges or offload cargo to semi trucks.

Salty Gulf water is moving upriver. Another serious impact of the low water levels is a wedge of salt water has leaked up the Mississippi River from the Gulf of Mexico into parts of Louisiana, as the video atop this article explains.

That’s happening because the dredged portion of the river south of Natchez, Mississippi, is below sea level. When the drought-stricken river isn’t running with enough volume, this Gulf salt water can creep upstream along the river bottom.

T​he salt water could be a threat to drinking water supplies, agriculture and other infrastructure. In a news conference, Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said he may request an emergency declaration to tap more resources to address this issue.

Drought covers much of the Mississippi River Basin. Over the summer, drought rapidly developed and worsened over much of the Mississippi Valley, from Minnesota and Wisconsin to Louisiana and Mississippi. It also stretches over key tributaries including the Missouri, Arkansas and Red Rivers.

I​t’s particularly exceptional from Texas to Mississippi. Louisiana just had its hottest summer on record, according to NOAA. The last three months ending Saturday was the driest June 24 – Sept. 23 period on record in both Lake Charles and New Orleans, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

T​here is some rain in the forecast. Fortunately, this relentlessly dry pattern will take a break for a day or so.

W​hile some locally heavy rainfall is possible, most of these areas will probably pick up less than an inch of rain.

S​o while this rain will be welcomed, it won’t raise Mississippi River levels much at all.

T​here is some hope ahead. NOAA’s seasonal outlook released last week expects much of the Mississippi Valley drought to either improve or be wiped out by the end of the year.

T​hey’re expecting better odds of a wetter than average October-December over much of the South, including the lower Mississippi Valley.

T​hat’s due, in part, to an increasingly strong El Niño, which typically turbo charges the southern branch, or subtropical, jet stream, bringing wetter weather in fall and winter to the South.

T​he other wild card, however, is the remainder of hurricane season.

Even just one slow-moving tropical depression or storm could dump enough rain to soak parched ground and produce rises on the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Of course, that same scenario could also wring out too much rain at once, leading to flash flooding.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter from a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He studied physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then completed his Master’s degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X/Twitter, Facebook and Threads. 

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