“Fertilizer Prices Are Falling,” Black Sea Export Deal in Focus, While Mississippi River Flow Draws Attention – Farm Policy News

Bloomberg writers Elizabeth Elkin and Tarso Veloso Ribeiro reported yesterday that, “Fertilizer costs are falling as farmers balking on the excessive prices of vitamins maintain off on purchases, driving down demand and inflicting gluts which might be upending the marketplace for crop inputs.

“Fertilizer costs soared to file highs earlier within the yr after sanctions towards Belarus, a serious producer, and Russia’s struggle in Ukraine fueled hovering costs for crop vitamins. That prompted world fertilizer companies to increase purchases and transport large quantities of product to keep away from provide chain points and commerce restrictions in export markets akin to Russia.

“Such strikes have led to bloating fertilizer inventories in some key areas and farmers simply aren’t shopping for — a state of affairs that’s now weighing available on the market. The turnabout is enjoying out in each the US, a serious fertilizer-buying nation and the world’s prime corn exporter, in addition to agricultural powerhouse Brazil, the No. 1 soybean provider.”

Elkin and Ribeiro identified that, “A weekly index for the widespread nitrogen fertilizer urea in New Orleans fell 3.2% Friday, extending a monthlong downward pattern as US farmers wait to see how low costs would possibly go. Brazilian farmers are additionally halting purchases, driving costs down as fertilizer piles up.”

Additionally yesterday, DTN author Todd Neeley reported that, “5 of eight fertilizer costs tracked by DTN are on the downward slide within the second week of October in comparison with one month in the past, with the starter fertilizer 10-34-0 persevering with a big drop for the second straight week…The typical value of 10-34-0 was $759 per ton for the second week of October, falling a whopping 12% from one month in the past.”

Neeley defined that, “DAP’s common value was $925/ton, down about 3% from one month in the past. MAP’s common value dropped to $986 a ton from $1,009 one month in the past, or about 2%. The typical value of potash dropped by about 2% to $863/ton. The typical value of UAN28 fell fractionally from $578/ton to $576 on this replace.”

“The typical value of anhydrous spiked by about 4% to $1,417/ton since final month. Urea jumped in value by about 2% from $808/ton to $824. UAN 32′s common value noticed a 1% bump from $665/ton to $670,” the DTN article stated.

In the meantime, New York Occasions author Carly Olson reported earlier this week that, “Russia is threatening to refuse to increase the United Nations-brokered deal that resumed Ukrainian agricultural exports by sea if Moscow’s calls for over its meals and fertilizer exports are usually not met, a Russian official informed a prime U.N. official in a gathering on Monday.”

The Occasions article famous that, “Earlier than the struggle, Ukraine equipped about 50 million tons of grain a yr to the world market, based on the United Nations. Ukrainian officers have estimated that the blockade trapped about 22 million tons of grain in silos.

“For the reason that deal was struck almost three months in the past, Ukraine has exported about 8.6 million tons of grain and different agricultural merchandise, based on the United Nations.

“Though exports have but to succeed in their prewar ranges, they’ve picked up in latest months. That is partly a capability problem, with solely three of Ukraine’s 17 ports in use.”

Bloomberg author Aine Quinn reported yesterday that, “A logjam of vessels delivery Ukrainian crops eased as inspections sped up over the weekend, however the backlog stays excessive with simply over a month of the grain-export deal left.

“Outbound ships have to be inspected in Istanbul below the deal, and no less than 12 have been checked every day from Friday via Sunday. That’s up from seven to 9 a day earlier within the week. The variety of inspection groups edged as much as 5 on Friday, stated Amir Abdulla, United Nations coordinator for the Black Sea Grain Initiative.”

“Shippers are speeding to export as a lot as potential via the Black Sea hall earlier than the present deal expires, with negotiations on extending it persevering with.”

And Reuters writers Krisztina Fenyo and Krisztina Than reported yesterday that, “Europe’s largest land-based container terminal began working close to Hungary’s border with Ukraine on Tuesday, aiming to improve shipments of Ukrainian grains by way of Hungary to Adriatic ports.”

Additionally with respect to Ukraine, Reuters author Pavel Polityuk reported yesterday that, “Ukraine’s agriculture ministry revised up its forecast of the world to be sown for the 2023 winter wheat harvest to round 4 million hectares from the earlier outlook of 3.8 million hectares, ministry knowledge confirmed on Tuesday.

“The ministry stated farmers had sown 2.5 million hectares of winter wheat as of Oct. 18, or 61% of the anticipated space.”

Additionally yesterday, Dow Jones author Kirk Maltais reported that, “Wheat for December supply fell 1.3% to $8.49 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Commerce on Tuesday, with grain merchants persevering with to cost within the chance that the Black Sea grain export hall deal is renewed.”

“Weak spot in wheat weighed on row crop futures, with the U.N. this week calling talks between it and Russia ‘constructive‘ and leaving open the chance of a renewed Black Sea grain export hall settlement.”

Maltais added that, “Whereas dry climate inflicting low water ranges is the principle concern for grain merchants concerning barge visitors, labor points are additionally enjoying a task in slowing visitors [on the Mississippi River].”

Reuters author Mark Weinraub reported yesterday that, “A U.S. Division of Agriculture (USDA) report on Monday confirmed the corn harvest was 45% full by mid-October, barely under market forecasts however forward of the five-year common.

“The U.S. soybean harvest was 63% full, above the five-year common of 52%.

“Merchants are additionally assessing U.S. export prospects, which have been sophisticated by a robust greenback and low water ranges on the Mississippi river, a serious route for transporting grain to U.S. Gulf export terminals.”

Latest Twitter updates have additionally offered perception into the drought’s persevering with impression on Mississippi River transportation flows: