Northern Illinois vs. Miami (Ohio) Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 13

Northern Illinois wasn’t able to follow up on its upset of Notre Dame early in the season, falling behind in the MAC conference race, but has a chance to play spoiler in the league. 

The Huskies will take on Miami (Ohio) in Tuesday night MACtion with the RedHawks looking to make a bid at a second straight league title. However, NIU has been elite on the defensive side of the ball all season and winners of two in a row. Can the Huskies snap Miami’s five-game winning streak and soil its hopes of a repeat? 

Here’s how to bet the marquee matchup of the Week 13 opening slate.

Spread

Moneyline

Total: 41.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Northern Illinois

Telly Johnson Jr.: With Antario Brown out last week, Johnson was the leadback for the Huskies in the team’s win against Arkon. Brown is not on the depth chart this week, so it appears he won’t go, meaning Johnson will likely be called on to lead the run-first Huskies offense against Miami’s stingy defense. 

Miami (Ohio)

Brett Gabbert: The senior quarterback continues to show out as MAC play continues, tallying 15 passing touchdowns with only one interception in league games. Since the loss to Toledo, the RedHawks have won all but one game by double digits and are starting to look like the MAC Champion from a year ago.  

This game is likely going to be dictated by both team’s defense, among the best in the MAC. 

Both units are top 40 nationally in EPA/Play, but there are some stylistic differences that make for an advantageous matchup for the road underdog. 

NIU is focused on keeping the ball on the ground with its stable of running backs in addition to quarterback Ethan Hampton. While the RedHawks have an elite defense, it’s far better against the pass than the run, ranking outside the top half of the country in EPA/Rush this season. The defensive line isn’t getting a similar push to last season, outside the top 90 in defensive line yards, and may struggle to keep Northern Illinois out of favorable down and distances. 

Meanwhile, Miami does lean on its passing game. Despite the emergence of running back Keyon Mozee, who is averaging nearly seven yards per carry, the RedHawks throw at a top-40 rate nationally. 

However, the Huskies defense is elite against the pass, top 20 in the country in EPA/Pass, and among the best down-to-down defenses, ranking top 25 in success rate. 

NIU has lost three MAC games by a total of 12 points, one of which in overtime and the other on a last season field goal, which stunted its ability to contend for a MAC title, but not from having betting value. 

I’ll take the underdog to throw some chaos into the title race. 

PICK: Northern Illinois ML +116

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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