The New York Mets (50-48) and Miami Marlins (35-64) conclude their 4-game series Monday. First pitch from loanDepot park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Marlins lead 5-4
The Mets offense had 8 hits on Sunday but could only manage 2 runs in a 4-2 loss Sunday. The Mets are now 24-22 on the road and 47-51 against the spread (ATS).
Miami won its 2nd game in this series as DH Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit a 3-run HR and Jake Burger had a solo shot. Miami has held New York to 7 total runs in this series.
Mets at Marlins projected starters
LHP David Peterson vs. RHP Yonny Chirinos
Peterson (4-0, 3.09 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 43 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 7-0 victory against the Washington Nationals on July 11
- 2024 road splits: 2-0, 3.09 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 5.8 K/9 in 4 starts
- Last start vs. Marlins: Win, 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 1 K in a 10-4 victory on June 12
Chirinos (0-1, 5.76 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.72 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 25 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 4 BB, 1 K in 7-4 defeat at Cincinnati Reds on July 12
- 2024 home splits: 0-0, 4.50 ERA (10 IP, 5 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 in 2 games
- Only start vs. Mets: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in a 7-6 road loss on Aug. 13, 2023 as a member of the Atlanta Braves
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Mets at Marlins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:21 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets -172 (bet $172 to win $100) | Marlins +144 (bet $100 to win $144)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (-106) | Marlins +1.5 (-113)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Mets at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Marlins 2
Moneyline
PASS.
Surprisingly, the Marlins have played the Mets tough, but New York will even their series on Monday evening. As confident as I am, I’ll stay away from the Mets (-172) moneyline and look to the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
BET METS -1.5 (-106).
Peterson has been lights out since rejoining the Mets rotation in late May. He is 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA in July and he hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of his last 5 starts. Peterson may have struggled a bit in his 1st start against the Marlins in 2024, but got the victory.
The Mets have hit better on the road than at Citi Field this season, batting 30 points higher.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-105).
The Under has hit in 3 of the last 4 matchups between these 2 teams.
The Under has also hit in Peterson’s last 2 starts. He has allowed just 13 runs in his last 38 2/3 IP (less than 2 runs per start) since the start of June.
The Marlins have been Under in 3 of their last 4 games. Chirinos is 2-2-1 against the Over in his last 5 starts.
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