Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators Prediction: Who Wins, and Why?

Two head coaches both under .500 in two seasons are in need of a statement win early on in this SEC vs. ACC matchup as Miami and Florida meet in college football’s Week 1 action on Saturday.

Mario Cristobal and Billy Napier were heralded as the men tagged to resurrect their respective football programs, but now the Hurricanes and Gators coaches are both facing serious pressure to right the ship and record a needed early W this season.

Florida faces arguably college football’s toughest overall schedule, especially in the second half of the year, so this game means a little more for them, while Miami is hoping to score a win against an SEC team as it makes a case as the next team to beat in the ACC.

What can we expect from the matchup? Here’s what you should watch out for as Miami and Florida square off from The Swamp, with our updated prediction for the game.

How to watch

When: Sat., Aug. 31
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Miami vs. Florida game odds

Miami: -2.5 (-110)
Florida: +2.5 (-110)

Miami to win: -137
Florida to win: +114

Over 54.5 points (-105)
Under 54.5 points (-115)

FPI picks: UF 57.7% | MIA 42.3%

What to watch for

1. The U’s new guys. Working behind a decent line are two top-flight transfer pickups: quarterback Cameron Ward, a dual threat who had 33 all-purpose touchdowns and 3,736 passing yards last season, and tailback Damien Martinez, who posted almost 1,200 yards a year ago and averages 6.1 yards per rush with 16 scores in his career. They could generate momentum against a Gator defense that allowed 6.4 yards per play last season.

2. Testing Miami’s secondary. A relative weakness on the team remains this pass defense after losing some important contributors from a year ago. Florida has the perimeter speed on a receiving corps led by Eugene Wilson to test that alignment, and while quarterback Graham Mertz is efficient, he’s not exactly known for his long ball, either.

3. Battle on the ground. Florida’s backs may struggle finding running lanes against a Hurricanes front seven unit that placed 2nd in the ACC by allowing just under 106 yards on the ground per game last season and only improved after scoring some decent transfer acquisitions. Montrell Johnson leads the Gators’ ground attack, though he’s coming off a knee surgery.

Miami vs. Florida prediction

On paper, Miami has the superior offensive rotation, but it’s not clear exactly how well acclimated the unit will be in the first game of the season. Early stumbles could throw a monkey wrench into the Hurricanes’ momentum early on, something Florida could take advantage of on its home field.

Graham Mertz posted good numbers a year ago, but the Gators quarterback does struggle when it comes to consistently testing the deeper portion of the field. Still, Miami’s relative weakness on the back end could play into his hands and help Florida exploit the deeper passing lanes.

But over time, the Hurricanes have more variety in their offensive skill threats and the superior alignment up front to prevent the Gators from gaining too much rhythm on the ground.

College Football HQ picks…

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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