Miami Heat think they are ready to make another unlikely run: 'It'll be a show'

MIAMI — Before he was done with the sentence, Bam Adebayo caught himself. The Miami Heat center was about to consider this season in isolation. Whoops.

“We’ve (gone through) a lot of ups and downs throughout the season — these past seasons, actually,” Adebayo said after the Heat polished off a 46-36 regular season with a 118-103 win over the Toronto Raptors. “This is the time of year when backs are against the wall. You start to find out who everybody is.”

It is clear that, while acknowledging each season is a bit different, the Heat bathe in a self-assurance that belies their eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. After last year, the Heat might have to miss the playoffs to rule them out of making a deep run into late spring.

After losing the 7-8 Play-In game to the Atlanta Hawks, the Heat were a few minutes away from missing the playoffs proper last season. They came back to edge the Chicago Bulls, and that’s when the fun started: upset wins, at least by seeding, over the Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks and Boston Celtics, the first, fifth and second seeds in the Eastern Conference respectively. They lost to the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals.

The Heat have made the conference final in three of the four last seasons, despite being the fifth and eighth seeds in the two in which they made the Finals.

And so it is again, with the Heat seeded eighth heading into the Play-In Tournament. They will visit the Philadelphia 76ers in the 7-8 game on Wednesday. If they win, they play the New York Knicks in the 2-7 matchup. If they lose, they will play the winner of Tuesday’s game between the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks for the right to play the Boston Celtics, the heavy favorites to advance out of the Eastern Conference.

The question is obvious: Can the Heat do it again?

“The playoffs will let us know. But we’ve certainly experienced a lot together, that’s for sure,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said before the Raptors game. “It’s been an eventful season. Many different things have happened. But I think as long as your team approaches all of those experiences the right way, you’re gaining something from it and then developing some collective grit and toughness and all of that.”

Last year, the Heat entered the Play-In Tournament with the ninth-ranked defense and the 25th-ranked offense, sporting a negative net rating. This year they were fifth and 21st, respectively, before Sunday’s finale. Jimmy Butler played 64 games last year as opposed to 60 this season, but his per-minute and advanced statistics were some of the best of his career in 2022-23. They fell to previous levels this year, although he has been a more dangerous and prolific 3-point shooter this year. Adebayo won’t win Defensive Player of the Year, but he will find his way on to many ballots.

The broad strokes are similar.

“We’re not the same group as last year, so we leave that where it’s at,” Butler said. “We’re moving forward with the group that we do have. But we … are very confident in the guys that we do have, and we know what we’re capable of.”

“I think the biggest takeaway from last year is just (that) anything can happen,” Heat guard Tyler Herro added. “It’s not ideal to be in the seven or eight spot, but we’re here and that’s our reality. We can make moves with wherever we’re at.”

Herro, the Heat hope, is one of the biggest differences. Last year, he broke his hand in the first game in Miami’s first series, not playing another minute in the playoffs. This year, Herro missed 20 consecutive games in February and March with a right foot injury. Obviously, nothing can insulate him — or anyone else — against suffering another random injury, but he should be fresh heading into the playoffs.

Herro came back for the last six games of the regular season, averaging 21 points per game on 44.8 percent shooting, including 37.5 percent from the floor. That is close to where his regular season numbers finished.

The supporting cast has changed from last year, with Max Strus in Cleveland and Kyle Lowry in Philadelphia. The man who Lowry was traded for, Terry Rozier, has missed the last four games of the season with a neck injury. Duncan Robinson missed the last four games, as well, with a back injury. They are considered day-to-day, with their status for Wednesday up in the air. Kevin Love also has an upper arm injury that could hamper him or keep him out of the lineup on Wednesday.

With that said, rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr., Haywood Highsmith and Nikola Jović have stepped comfortably into meaningful roles. The Heat have made runs at less than full strength before. So long as they have Adebayo and Butler, they will believe in themselves, even as the rest of the world is skeptical that they have another magic trick at their disposal.

“I’m good. We all are,” Butler said. “It is another opportunity to play basketball at a high level in front of the world, in front of our fans, in front of their fans. So it’ll be a show.”

Given his past playoff exploits, when Butler says it, you tend to believe, too.

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(Photo of Tyler Herro: Megan Briggs / Getty Images)