March Madness 2023 Final Four: UConn vs. Miami odds, prediction

For 4 rounds, UConn has hardly been examined alongside its path to the sixth Remaining 4 in program historical past.

Standing in its manner now’s Miami, which has shocked among the prime groups in school basketball en path to its first-ever Remaining 4.

The Huskies opened as sizable favorites and have seen a lot of the motion of their favor within the lead-up to Saturday’s recreation.

Nonetheless, we’ve seen this script earlier than with the Hurricanes, who’ve been doubted each step alongside the way in which of their historic run.

Right here’s how we’re betting Saturday’s contest, which suggestions off at 8:49 p.m. ET on CBS.

UConn vs. Miami choose

UConn vs. Miami prediction and evaluation

Getting into Saturday’s semifinal, Connecticut has dominated each opponent it’s confronted up to now within the NCAA Match. Why would that change on Saturday?

It’s not like this got here out of nowhere for the Huskies, who gained their first 14 video games of the season and peaked as excessive as No. 2 within the polls.

That’s when a 2-6 droop that spanned most of January threw bettors off the scent of Dan Hurley’s crew, even because the superior metrics continued to hail this group as one of many nation’s finest.

We noticed that play out during the last month of the season: from Feb. 7 by means of Choice Sunday, UConn ranked because the No. 1 crew within the nation with top-10 effectivity on each ends and the most effective offensive rebound price (45.6%).

And we’ve seen that dominance proceed into this event, too.

The Huskies’ 28-point win over Gonzaga to clinch this weekend’s semifinal berth was the biggest win by any crew within the Elite Eight in over 30 years.

It was additionally UConn’s fourth win by no less than 15 factors by means of the primary 4 rounds – one thing simply 9 groups have executed in NCAA Match historical past.

5 of these 9 groups gained the nationwide title, and 7 of them gained their Remaining 4 matchup by a median of 10.3 factors.

The lone two outliers? Arizona (1988) and Kentucky (1993), each of which misplaced to fellow No. 1 seeds.

Fifth-seeded Miami deserves a number of credit score for its spectacular run up to now, which has flown within the face of market expectations.

The Hurricanes have been dealing as -130 favorites over No. 12 seed Drake within the first spherical and trailed within the ultimate minutes earlier than closing the sport on a 16-1 run to maintain their season alive.

That set the tone for Jim Larranaga’s group, which has since ripped off dominant second-half runs in every of its subsequent three event wins to arrange Saturday’s conflict with UConn. Miami did it the exhausting manner, too, going through the best attainable seed (No. 5 Indiana, No. 1 Houston, No. 2 Texas) on its method to the college’s first-ever look on this stage.

It’s simple to marvel when this crew’s protection, which ranks exterior of the highest 100 in adjusted effectivity, will ultimately rear its ugly head.

It hasn’t been a difficulty up to now, as Miami has posted an offensive effectivity of 122.0 or higher in every of its final three wins.

Nonetheless, the ‘Canes haven’t seen measurement like what they’ll see on Saturday in opposition to star middle Adama Sanogo (6-9, 245), who’s averaging 20 factors, 9.8 rebounds and 1.3 blocks on 65.5% capturing by means of the primary 4 rounds.

When he hits the bench, he’s changed by freshman Donovan Clingan (7-2, 265), whose 14.6% block price would rank second nationally if he’d performed sufficient minutes to qualify.

If Miami can’t generate offense close to the ring, it’ll must depend on the elite perimeter shot-making that’s carried this group in every of the final three rounds.

We’ve already seen distinctive capturing shows from Nigel Pack (44.8%) and Isaiah Wong (41.7%), each of whom are pulling down greater than 40% of their 3-pointers on this event.

Nonetheless, can these two maintain that once more on Saturday?

It will be silly to jot down that off completely, however UConn’s protection ranks within the prime 15 in 3-point share (29.7%) and 3-point price (30.1%) and has allowed simply 18 made triples on 27.3% effectivity by means of the primary 4 rounds.

Betting on Faculty Basketball?

The X-factor on this recreation shall be UConn guard Jordan Hawkins, who’s averaging 17.3 PPG on this event however might be restricted by sickness on this one.

If he can swimsuit up and play in addition to he did in opposition to Gonzaga – when he hit six of his 10 makes an attempt from deep – he’d be the last word second-half antidote for any potential Miami run.

In the end, the hole between these two groups feels cavernous with the way in which that the Huskies have performed up to now and the relative volatility of the Hurricanes’ 3-point heavy strategy, which feels doomed for a pointy and sudden drop – particularly at NRG Stadium, which is notoriously a tricky place to shoot.

UConn vs. Miami Odds (through BetMGM)

• UConn -5.5 (-110), moneyline -250
• Miami +5.5 (-110), moneyline +200
• O/U 149.5 (below -115)