Rutgers vs. Maryland prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends, and stats

Maryland (4-5) opened 3-1 with wins over UConn and @UVA to go with a 27-24 loss to Michigan State where Maryland only had a 10%-win expectancy. Though they lost a 42-28 decision to undefeated Indiana, the Terps actually had the smallest margin of defeat of any team Indiana has played this season, which counts as a moral victory. They got trounced by Northwestern 37-10 before the Terps bounced back to extract a 29-28 win over USC. HC Mike Locksley’s offense is a pass-oriented scheme that ranks Top 20 in both pass rate and completion rate (68.4%). The Maryland linebacker group ranks 7th in havoc rate and fortifies a credible run defense that slots in at 18th in yards per rush and 17th in yards after contact allowed.

The Scarlet Knights (5-4) barnstormed through their early season schedule with notable victories over @Virginia Tech and Washington, as RU opened up with a 4-0 record. However, since then Rutgers dropped one-score decisions against @Nebraska and UCLA in addition to getting crushed by USC and Wisconsin to even their record at 4-4 heading into last week’s game against Minnesota when they secured a 26-19 victory over the Gophers. Offensively RB Kyle Monangai leads a credible run game that ranks 14th in YAC and 40th in EPA/rush. Monangai missed the last game but has already been cleared to play against the Terps. RU is allowing a brutal 50% rushing success rate (13th worst in FBS) while ranking 125th in EPA/rush allowed but is still considered the 33rd defense in FBS according to SP+.

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Game Details and How to watch Rutgers @ Maryland

· Date: Saturday, November 16, 2024
· Time: 6:00 PM EST
· Site: SECU Stadium
· City: College Park, MD
· TV/Streaming: FS1

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Game odds for Rutgers @ Maryland courtesy of BetMGM

The latest odds as of Friday morning:

• Moneyline: Maryland (-225), Rutgers (+185)
• Spread: Maryland -5.5
• Over/Under: 51.5 points

This game opened with Maryland as a 3-point favorite but quickly shot up to a range of -5.5 to 6 in current trading. Rutgers moneyline opened at +150 and has improved to +185. The game total has corrected upwards from 50.5 to a current high-water mark of 52.5.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“These two programs are consistently engaging in high scoring affairs, as Maryland ranks 5th nationally with a 7-2 record to the Over and Rutgers is no slouch themselves hitting the Over at 6-3 clip. Accordingly, i’m backing the Over 51.5 points to be scored on these two leaky defenses.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

Quarterback matchup for Rutgers @ Maryland

• Maryland: Billy Edwards Jr. beat out four-star NC State transfer QB MJ Morris for the starting gig and has run with the job, completing a commendable 65.7% of his throws for 2,519 pass yards and a 14-to-8 ratio while recording an 81.2 PFF offensive grade that ranks as the 23rd best mark among Power Conference quarterbacks. Edwards has been getting the ball out of his hands in a brisk 2.32s on average, which is the fourth quickest release time in the country. He is leading a rather conservative Terps passing attack that ranks 118th in 20+ yard pass rate, and 121st in passing explosiveness.

• Rutgers: HC Greg Schiano moved on from ineffective 2023 starting QB Gavin Wimsatt in favor of former Minnesota signal caller Athan Kaliakmanis, who transferred in this offseason. The change of scenery did a world of good for Kaliakmanis, who has improved his yards per attempt average from 6.2-to-6.8 and lowered his pressure-to-sack rate from 20.5% to 15.0%. However, the biggest quantifiable gain from an advanced statistical perspective is Kaliakmanis boosting his PFF passing grade from 58.2-to-74.1. The change of scenery has been beneficial for Kaliakmanis who will try to beat Maryland and achieve bowl eligibility for the Scarlet Knights.

Betting trends & recent stats

• Maryland’s offensive line has been strong in pass protection, allowing a 25.3% pressure rate (18th) with a 3.9% sack rate (31st). However, they rank a disappointing 111th with a 10.9% blown run block rate, and 102nd in yards before contact (1.33).
• Maryland WR Tai Felton is averaging 8.9 receptions per game, which leads the FBS and ranks second in FBS only to San Jose State WR Nick Nash at 9.6 receptions per contest.
• RU is tackling opponents for a loss on 13.6% of the rush attempts they’ve faced, 57th out of 67 Power Four teams. Washington ranks last with an 8.9% TFL rate.
• Rutgers ranks 125th nationally with a 53.8% completion rate, and 27th in FBS averaging 7.0 air yards per completion. The Scarlet Knights are consciously sacrificing accuracy in favor of trying to hit explosive pass plays downfield.

BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (Last Week to Now)

• Ohio State +350 to +300
• Texas +550 to +450
• Ole Miss +3500 to +1000

Highest Ticket%

• Ohio State 14.0%
• Texas 11.5%
• Georgia 10.6%

Highest Handle%

• Ohio State 17.7%
• Georgia 16.3%
• Texas 11.4%

Biggest Liabilities

• Colorado
• Ohio State
• Tennessee

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