Republican Larry Hogan ties with Dem in deep-blue Maryland’s Senate race: poll

GOP Maryland Senate hopeful Larry Hogan is deadlocked with his Democratic rival in a new poll, elevating Republican hopes of an upset victory as other Republican candidates in swing contests for the upper chamber struggle.

Hogan tied with Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks at 46% each, according to a shock AARP poll. The remaining 8% of survey respondents were undecided.

“I’ve been clear from the start that we are the underdogs in this race,” Hogan said in a statement about the survey. “People have always counted us out — and in this deep blue state, during this unprecedented and chaotic time in American politics, this uphill battle is a daunting climb.”

By contrast, the poll pegged Vice President Kamala Harris trouncing former President Donald Trump in Maryland with a whopping 59% to 29%.

The Old Line State hasn’t had a Republican serve in the Senate since 1987, and President Biden managed to win the state by some 33 percentage points in 2020. Only one of its eight-member congressional delegation is a Republican — Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.)

Despite Maryland’s liberal leanings, Hogan is widely seen as a deeply formidable GOP candidate due to his more moderate stances, family legacy and history of winning statewide to serve as a popular governor.

In 2018, a year that saw Democrats sweep elections nationwide, Hogan won re-election as Maryland governor by nearly 12 percentage points.

Both Hogan and Alsobrooks are jockeying to fill incumbent Democrat Sen. Sen. Ben Cardin’s soon-to-be vacant seat representing Maryland. Alsobrooks had prevailed in a bruising primary against Rep. David Trone in May.

Should she win, Alsobrooks would be the first black senator from Maryland and only the second female senator from the state following Barbara Mikulski.

Republicans are staring down a favorable map to reclaim the upper chamber, only having to defend 11 seats compared to the 23 held by Democrats and three Independents caucusing with them.

However, polls show a tight race across the board. Some of the toughest races feature Democratic incumbents, which adds to the difficulty of flipping those seats.

The GOP has also eyed races in Arizona, Montana, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin as possible pickup opportunities.

Of those, The Cook Political Report ranks Michigan, Montana and Ohio as tossups, while deeming West Virginia a solid Republican state for the Senate contests. Maryland is ranked “likely Democrat” by the election handicapper.

Democrats currently control the Senate 51 to 49. Whoever wins the vice presidency will get the tiebreaker vote in the event of a deadlock.

During his time as governor, Hogan gained a reputation for his centrist stances and became one of the loudest voices within his party to criticize Trump, who has remained largely quiet on the contest.

Hogan has taken a pro-abortion rights stance during his Senate race and his first commercial spot included a call for the codification of abortion rights nationwide, as Republicans struggle with the politics of that albatross issue.

He has also sought to fashion himself as a maverick, and stressed that Republicans shouldn’t take his vote for granted in the Senate if he wins.

The bipartisan AARP poll was taken from Aug. 14-20 and sampled 1,258 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

It was conducted by the Republican-leaning Fabrizio Ward firm and Democratic-leaning Impact Research.