MD Hurricane Season: Updated Forecast Calls For More Storms In 2023

MARYLAND — Tropical storm activity is expected to ramp up in the Atlantic as the peak of the 2023 hurricane season nears, and two agencies have updated their predictions to say more storms are likely to spawn than earlier forecast.

Maryland officials are reminding residents to be prepared as the state approaches the typical time for hurricane activity.

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with the peak season running between August and late October.

The National Hurricane Center forecasters said Thursday that the region can expect an above-average number of hurricanes in a season that hasn’t seen any storms approach the U.S. so far. Five storms have reached tropical storm strength and one developed into Hurricane Don.

NOAA is now predicting 14 to 21 named storms this season, an increase from its May prediction of 12 to 17 storms.

A weather disturbance becomes a tropical storm when wind speeds reach 39 mph and becomes a hurricane when wind speeds reach 74 mph.

Of the 14 to 21 predicted storms, six to 11 could become hurricanes and two to five could become major hurricanes, NOAA said. This increases the National Hurricane Center’s outlook for the season from near-normal to “an above-normal level of activity.”

Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season outlook forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, said the conditions that forecasters predicted would limit hurricane activity have been slow to develop, while unprecedented heat in the south could fuel storms.

Rosencrans said NOAA is 70 percent certain about Thursday’s updated outlook predicting two to five major hurricanes reaching Category 3 to 5 levels.

Here Are The 2023 Hurricane And Tropical Storm Names

AccuWeather’s Updated Forecast

An updated hurricane forecast on Aug. 2 from AccuWeather called for an increased number of increased storms, and said the Atlantic basin could become “very active” later this August. There have already been five tropical storms in 2023, said AccuWeather.

The weather agency forecasts 13 to 17 named storms this year in their update, higher than March’s initial forecast of 11 to 15 storms.

AccuWeather said between four and eight of the predicted storms could reach hurricane-strength, and up to three of them could become major hurricanes — that is, those with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater and rated 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Two to four of these storms could directly impact East Coast states, said AccuWeather.

“This hurricane season could be the eighth in a row with the number of named storms being at or above the historical average of 14,” said AccuWeather. “The last time a season ended below this benchmark was in 2015, when only 11 named systems developed.”

In comparison, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center forecasted between 12 and 17 named storms in their Atlantic hurricane season predictions. Of these, between five and nine could become hurricanes (categorized as having winds over 73 mph) — with at least one major hurricane, and possibly up to four.

Weather patterns show that Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states may be spared the worst of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather said — but forecasters urge residents in hurricane-prone areas to get their plans in place.

Hurricane Preparation Tips

Residents should take these safety precautions before a storm heads toward Maryland: