Maryland vs. Oregon predictions and best bets: Can UO cover spread in 5th-straight game?

Oregon football has never faced Maryland, but that’s going to change Saturday when the Terrapins make the long trek to Autzen Stadium.

The Ducks are reaching new heights, thanks to their first-ever No. 1 ranking in the College Football Playoff. Oregon is nearly a three-touchdown favorite at the top online sportsbooks, and there are two bets I’m circling for this weekend’s clash with Maryland.

CFB Week 11 Maryland vs. Oregon predictions and best bets

• Oregon -25: -110 odds at Fanatics
• Terrance Ferguson anytime TD scorer: +110 odds at DraftKings

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Oregon has been a bettor’s best friend in recent weeks, covering the spread in four straight games, according to TeamRankings. Maryland is 1-2 against the spread on the road with only one cover in its previous four games.

Tez Johnson leads Oregon’s WR corps in catches, yards and touchdowns, but he’ll miss a few games because of an injury suffered against Michigan. The Ducks have outstanding pass-catching depth, and TE Terrance Ferguson’s production should rise with Johnson out.

UO got Ferguson back last week after a two-game absence, and he nearly scored his first touchdown of the season. The senior’s 20-yard catch fell a yard short of the goal line.

This is Maryland‘s first time traveling to the Pacific time zone, and cross-country flights have led to poor performances for Big Ten teams. The Terrapins’ spotty defense is solid against the run but struggles against the pass.

Maryland hasn’t pressured opposing QBs well enough, leading to 276 passing yards and 28 points allowed per game. Oregon is likely to find the end zone early and often, and I predict Ferguson to be one of the touchdown scorers.

Terrapins QB Billy Edwards Jr. has been excellent. Maryland ranks ninth nationally in passing yards per game, but Edwards Jr. has four interceptions in the past three games.

Oregon may allow more points than usual against Maryland’s pass-heavy offense. However, I don’t expect it to be enough to keep the final score within 25 points.

Maryland vs. Oregon moneyline odds analysis

Why Oregon could win as the favorite

Best odds: -3000 at BetMGM

WR Traeshon Holden stepped up when Johnson left early in last week’s game, catching six passes for 149 yards. Oregon’s second-leading receiver, Evan Stewart, was quiet versus Michigan but caught UO’s only touchdown pass.

Ferguson, Justius Lowe and Kenyon Sadiq combined for 10 catches and 111 yards. Oregon has spectacular pass-catching depth, and QB Dillon Gabriel will keep the offense humming until Johnson returns.

RBs Jordan James and Noah Whittington haven’t forced Gabriel to do all the heavy lifting. The Ducks average 168 rushing yards and have the third-most rushing touchdowns in the Big Ten.

Oregon’s defense also has been top-tier. The Ducks surrender 16 points per game with 23 sacks, seven interceptions and eight forced fumbles.

DEs Matayo Uiagalelei and Jordan Burch have been unstoppable, combining for 10.5 sacks.

Why Maryland could win as the underdog

Best odds: +1500 at bet365

The margin for error is almost nonexistent when you face the No. 1 team in the nation. Edwards Jr. must cut down on his interceptions to give the Terrapins a shot at an upset.

Maryland’s defense has been especially bad against conference foes, allowing 36 points per game. Michigan State and Northwestern are among the lowest-scoring Big Ten teams, and both managed 25+ points versus the Terrapins.

One thing Maryland’s defense has done well is force turnovers. The unit has nine interceptions, and a few timely takeaways would go a long way.

WR Tai Felton will be the catalyst of the Terrapins’ offense. Felton has the sixth-most receiving yards in FBS, and he’ll need a monster performance to help match Oregon’s scoring.