Illinois vs. Maryland prediction: College basketball odds, pick

There are two certainties in college basketball betting this year. 

First, Big Ten home teams win and cover. 

Home teams in conference play are 52-41-2 ATS, covering 56% of the time.

Since the start of last season, Big Ten home teams are 132-97-3 ATS. 

The Big Ten has the second-highest home-winning percentage of any conference this season, with home-court advantage winning out 72% of the time. 

Second, ranked teams on the road either don’t cover or don’t win. 

Ranked squads are 81-102-2 ATS on the road this season, and those squads are 26-37-1 as a favorite. 

So, when I saw No. 14 Illinois was laying two points in College Park, Maryland, on Saturday, I had to bite. 

Illinois vs. Maryland odds

(Via FanDuel)

Illinois vs. Maryland prediction

(5:30 p.m. ET, FOX)

But as I investigated the game more, I realized the Terps match up well with the Illini. 

Maryland has won and covered four of the past five head-to-head matchups, thrice winning outright as underdogs.

That includes a matchup in Champaign earlier this season, where the Terps won by nine as nine-point ‘dogs. 

There’s one main reason for that. 

Both squads run every opposing offense off the 3-point line.

The Illini rank sixth nationally in 3-point rate allowed, while the Terps rank 13th.

They get there in different ways – Illinois runs a drop-coverage defense while Maryland spams mainly press coverage – but it has the same effect. 

That being: Illinois vs Maryland generally devolves into an interior, 2-point shooting, post-up battle.

It’s all about paint buckets. 

Maryland has a significant upper hand in that regard, specifically on defense. 

The Terps are devastating on the defensive end. Julian Reese is among the nation’s best post-up defenders (.52 PPP allowed, 91st percentile), leading one of the nation’s better post-up defenses (.76 PPP allowed, 84th percentile).

Maryland allows only 28 paint points per game (84th percentile), blocks five shots a night (93rd percentile), and leads the Big Ten in 2-point shooting allowed (46%). 

There’s a reason why Maryland ranks fifth nationally in defensive efficiency, and its interior wall is the main reason. 

Illinois mainly tries to create offense through isolation and transition sets, leaning heavily on Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask, with Coleman Hawkins and Quincy Gurrier getting action on the interior. 

Unfortunately, Maryland is a rock-solid transition defense (.96 PPP allowed, 77th percentile) that’s even better defending on an island (.62 PPP allowed, 92nd percentile).

Jahmir Young, Julian Reese and Donta Scott are three of the Big Ten’s best isolation defenders.

Between those three and Reese, the Terps can match up with Illinois at every position. 

Illinois will try to augment its offense with offensive rebounds and second-chance points, but that’ll be tough against a Terps defense that allows only .95 offensive rebound/second-chance PPP (93rd percentile). 

Maryland’s interior defense will stand more than firm, and we can’t say the same for Illinois. 

The Illini allow 35 paint points per game (16th percentile), which has jumped to 38 in conference play (fifth percentile).

The Illini don’t defend the rim particularly well (8% block rate, 12th in Big Ten) and are merely average against post-up sets (.86 PPP, 49th percentile). 

The Terps funnel much of their offense through Reese in the post, but the Kevin Willard offense is mostly about Jahmir Young creating off the dribble.

And that’s huge against the Illini’s drop defense.

Drop-coverage schemes overplay ball handlers on the interior and force them toward an interior big man sagging toward the rim.

Thus, dribble-penetrating guards must create in the middle of the floor, and Young can do that. 

In fact, the best way to beat Young and the Terps’ backcourt is to pressure them, given Maryland is the worst ball-handling team in the Big Ten.

But the drop is a passive coverage, so Illinois ranks second-to-last in the conference in defensive turnover rate. 

Ultimately, I feel good about Young and Reese managing buckets against the Illini’s questionable, passive interior defense.

Betting on College Basketball?

Meanwhile, I don’t feel good about the Illini’s four big scorers creating individual offense against the Terps.

That’s precisely what happened in the prior matchup. 

Reese scored nine of his 20 points on 12 post-up sets, while Young scored 28 on 11-for-20 shooting from 2-point rage.

Overall, the Terps scored 52 paint points while shooting 26 for 48 (54%) from inside the arc and dishing out 14 assists to only seven turnovers. 

Meanwhile, the Illini managed only 26 paint points and shot a miserable 15 for 42 (36%) from 2-point range.

They were miserable in ball screens (four points on 14 sets) and posted a negative assist-to-turnover ratio (eight to nine). 

Expect more of the same on Saturday and wager accordingly. 

Illinois vs. Maryland pick

Maryland +2.5