Hurricane Ian Flooding May Reach Maryland This Weekend – Just In Weather

Monday Night September 26

Hurricane Ian has continued to get stronger. This night is is now a Class 2 Hurricane with winds of 100 mph and is anticipated to succeed in Class 3 by tomorrow. This brings with it the widespread damaging winds, waves, storm surge, and heavy rain when it brushes up in opposition to Florida. Whereas they put together for landfall of their State of Emergency, we have to think about the impacts of this storm farther up the coast. That features the potential for flooding throughout Georgia, the Carolinas, and even into Maryland by way of the weekend. 

IR Satellite tv for pc Loop

The upper cloud tops are shaded in darkish pink, clack, and purple.  There may be numerous wholesome convection wrapping round a creating eye wall. This does appear to be it is able to make a leap of speedy intensification as quickly because it reaches hotter water.

Night Snapshot at 8 PM

Hurricane Power Winds: Extends 35 miles from the middle.

Tropical Storm Power Winds: Extends 115 miles from the middle.

In my prior report I confirmed the forecast for some locations to presumably exceed 15 inches of rain.  On this report I wish to deal with what we anticipate because it travels farther north. As soon as making landfall it should get weaker, however the rain will unfold out and is forecast to succeed in the Mid Atlantic over the weekend. 

How a lot rain continues to be topic to the depth earlier than landfall and monitoring inland. However there may be numerous settlement that heavy rain will unfold up the East Coast with the heaviest presumably reaching into Maryland. Let’s have a look.

If you’d like a more in-depth take a look at the Florida flooding from storm surge and rainfall, click on right here.

Hurricane Ian Forecast Animation

GFS Mannequin: Wednesday by way of Tuesday

That is one resolution and never the ultimate name. I’ve a number of pc plots under. This does nevertheless present the growth of the rainfall inland past landfall. 

Rainfall might get delayed reaching the Mid Atlantic till late Saturday or Sunday. This can be decided partially if Hurricane Ian does almost stall for a day close to Tampa.

Pc Mannequin Forecast Plots

GFS Mannequin

These are all of the ensemble members, with the consensus plot highlighted black. That tracks instantly by way of Central Maryland together with metro Baltimore. 

European Mannequin ECWMF

These are all of the ensemble members, with the consensus plot highlighted within the center. This output tracks farther west of Atlanta, then loses tropical id. This isn’t the top of the rainmaker. 

ATCF Plots

These typically observe East of the ECMWF and turns up into the Mid Atlantic area by Sunday.

Rainfall Forecast By way of Sunday 

East Coast

Heaviest Rain north of Tampa FL might attain 15 inches. 

Southern Maryland might get into the attention of the three to six inch rainfall. 

Mid Atlantic Area

Centered on Maryland, this exhibits the 1 to three inches of rain potential north of Baltimore to York PA. 

Annapolis to southern Maryland and the Seashores can vary from 3 to over 5 inches. 

In my subsequent report, I’ll present you ways this will result in a sample change and one thing to observe for atmospheric reminiscence as a good sample for snow this winter. 

Additionally See:

Hurricane Ian Florida Flooding From Rain And Storm Surge

WIND WIDGET FORECAST

COMPARE TO THE  PAST

If you’d like a snowy winter, that is what you may wish to search for in the remainder of the tropical season.

Report August For No Named Tropical Storms: Nearer Look At Snow Following

Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 By way of November 30

NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Regular Once more

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