Friday’s March Madness matchup between the No. 4 Maryland Terrapins and No. 13 Grand Canyon Antelopes has the potential to be one of the best games of the Round of 64.

The Terrapins have been circled for tournament glory since conference play, with a dynamic offense and a Top-40 defense out of the Big Ten. They run into an exciting Antelopes squad that nearly flipped the bracket upside down last year and have the potential to do it again in 2025.

I’m a big fan of GCU, at least in the first 20 minutes. That’s where you’ll find my best Grand Canyon vs. Maryland predictions and March Madness picks for March 21.

Who will win Grand Canyon vs Maryland?

While I think GCU can put a scare in the Terps, Maryland will advance to the Round of 32. The odds currently give the Terrapins an implied win probability of 86%. 

Grand Canyon vs Maryland prediction

My best bet: Grand Canyon 1H +6 (-110 at bet365)

Flash back to last March and the Grand Canyon Antelopes are standing toe-to-toe with Alabama in the Round of 32. Grand Canyon did lose that matchup with the Crimson Tide, but the experience let Bryce Drew & Co. know they can play with anyone in the country.

This season, Grand Canyon could have a better shot at getting back to the Round of 32 and beyond.

Tyon Grant-Foster had an up-and-down year due to injury but is healthy for this postseason run and has support with transfer JaKobe Coles sharing the scoring load. All in all, GCU has four players scoring double figures.

The Antelopes up-tempo attack is fueled by chaos on the defensive end. Grand Canyon holds foes to the 26th-lowest effective field goal rate and it sucks opponents in with its frenetic pace, leading to 15 forced turnovers per contest. The Lopes then flip those miscues into buckets, scoring almost 16 POTOVs an outing.

If these attributes sound familiar, it’s because the Maryland Terrapins are cut from a very similar cloth. 

The Terrapins have the No. 6 defense in the country and are excellent at transforming turnovers into points (18 POTOV). Maryland also gets scoring from multiple sources, with the now infamous “Crab Five” featuring every starter scoring 12-plus points per game.

So why stick to the first half spread with GCU?

Grand Canyon comes out swinging, scoring 38.4 points in the first half (29th in the country), and its talent and defense will keep things close in the opening 20 minutes. The Antelopes own the second best first-half defensive rating in the country (behind only Houston) and sit just ahead of Maryland in that derivative metric.

The biggest difference between these two programs is the Terrapins’ outside shooting. Maryland can get streaky from distance but once the Big Dance nerves settle, I expect the Terps to start taking and making more shots from the perimeter. They’ll make adjustments at halftime, and their surplus of skills will eventually tip the scales.

Grand Canyon has managed to cover the spread in just 13 of its past 34 games (38%) but has covered the 1H spread in 19 of those same outings (56%). The Antelopes own an average 1H margin of +7.2 but see that tighten to +1.7 in the second half.

Full game projections range from Maryland -14 to -7 with my number at Terps -10.5. This spread got as high as Maryland -11.5 before coming down a point. However, the first half line jumped from GCU +5.5 to +6 and doesn’t reflect just how strong the Lopes are from the tipoff.

Grand Canyon vs Maryland same-game parlay (SGP)

Grand Canyon 1H +7.5

Under 71.5 1H

Ja’Kobi Gillespie 2+ 3-pointers

The Antelopes put Maryland on its heels in the first 20 minutes. The SGP menu offers +7.5 as the closest 1H derivative.

We have the No. 2 and No. 3 1H defenses in the country. Let’s say points come at a premium in the opening frame.

Gillespie will hit two or more triples to push the Terps ahead in the second half. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Grand Canyon vs Maryland odds

Grand Canyon vs Maryland live odds

Grand Canyon vs Maryland opening odds

• Spread: Grand Canyon +11 | Maryland -11
• Moneyline: Grand Canyon +464 | Maryland -621
• Over/Under: Over 150.5 | Under 150.5

Odds courtesy of bet365

Grand Canyon vs Maryland betting trend to know

Grand Canyon has covered the 1H spread in 19 of its last 34 games (+2.75 Unit /7% ROI) while going 13-21 ATS on the full-game spread. Find more college basketball betting trends for Grand Canyon vs. Maryland.

How to watch Grand Canyon vs Maryland

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