Tropical Threat in the Northern Gulf

(KMDL-FM) As of tomorrow, the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be a month and a half old. So far, the season has produced three named storms, Andrea, Barry, and Chantal. None of those storms has created any weather consequences at landfall. However, the remnant moisture of Barry played a major part in the historic and deadly flooding in the Texas Hill Country.

That in itself is proof that you don’t have to live along or near the coast to be affected by a tropical system. Another case in point is the devastating floods of last year in the Carolinas, caused by a dissipating Hurricane Helene. It just proves the old tropical weather wisdom, “hide from the wind, run from the water,” is true no matter how close you live to the coast.

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Speaking of the coast, the northern Gulf Coast is under the gun for tropical development over the next seven days. However, that prognostication of tropical development is far from certain. Here is the latest graphic from the National Hurricane Center.

You can see the large area of potential development runs from the southeastern Louisiana coast through Mississippi, Alabama, and into the Florida Panhandle and central sections of the Sunshine State.

What Are The Chances a Tropical Storm Will Form in the Gulf This Week?

Forecasters are only giving this area of low pressure a 30% probability of spinning up into a tropical cyclone. A scan of the long-range tropical model runs seems to suggest that the development of this system will be unlikely. But because of the system’s proximity to the coast, it does bear watching.

The forecast models do suggest the system will bring an increased threat of showers and storms to the northern Gulf Coast over the next several days. Rain chances will be elevated, and some portions of Louisiana could experience an “Excessive Rainfall Event”.

What Should Louisiana Expect From Tropical Development in the Gulf?

As of now, the area under the gun is from Baton Rouge eastward to the Mississippi State line. But other portions of the state could see heavy downpours in afternoon and early evening thunderstorms today and over the next several days. But widespread flooding is not expected.

The next full update from the National Hurricane Center will come at 7:00 this morning, with another update scheduled for 2:00 this afternoon. We will update this story with new information as it becomes available.

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