The biggest question in Louisiana politics for months had been whether President Trump would endorse U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow to be Louisiana’s next senator over Sen. Bill Cassidy or stay neutral.

President Donald Trump’s endorsement Saturday night of U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow to be Louisiana’s next senator has dramatically shaken up a race where Sen. Bill Cassidy already had four major Republican challengers, political insiders said Sunday. 

Trump’s decision makes it likely that Letlow will formally enter the race in the coming days and adds to the headwinds that Cassidy was facing to win a third six-year term. 

For months, given the president’s dominant role in Republican politics, the biggest question in Louisiana politics has been whether Trump would endorse Letlow, one of Cassidy’s already-announced challengers or stay neutral in the race. Letlow has been expected to get in only if Trump endorsed her. 

Trump’s decision indicates that he has not forgiven Cassidy for voting to convict the president on impeachment charges for instigating the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol by his supporters. Cassidy has tried to offset that by being a steadfast supporter of Trump since he began his second term a year ago and has said lately that the president would stay out of the race. 

“I don’t understand the president’s deal,” said Eddie Rispone, a Baton Rouge business owner and major Republican fundraiser who was nearly elected governor in 2019 and is supporting Cassidy. “I think it’s pretty ridiculous. You have a great guy making a difference. He chairs a major committee and is on the Finance Committee. She’s obviously a smart person, but she’s not even a seasoned congresswoman. It doesn’t make sense to me. They’re all running on one vote he made on impeachment.” 

If Letlow does indeed announce her candidacy, Cassidy’s challengers – state treasurer John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez, state Rep. Julie Emerson and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta – must then decide whether to stay in the race. 

Cassidy also faces that decision, although he has a massive fund-raising advantage over his Republican opponents and Letlow, at least at this point. His campaign said it has $11 million in cash, while a supportive super PAC, Louisiana Freedom Fund, had another $2.4 million on hand as of July 30, when it last reported to the FEC. 

The decision on whether any candidate will run must come soon because qualifying for the race occurs from Feb. 11 to 13. The closed party primary is on May 16, and, under new election rules, the top two finishers would vie for the Republican nomination on June 27 to face the top Democrat in the fall. 

People who spoke to Cassidy on Sunday said he has no plans to get out. 

“I’m proudly running for re-election as a principled conservative who gets things done for the people of Louisiana,” Cassidy said in a statement Saturday evening. “I am confident I will win if Congresswoman Letlow decides to run.” 

Scrambling Louisiana politics 

Letlow’s likely entry into the race also will scramble Louisiana politics because of the number of elected officials who have been eyeing her House seat if she jumped into the Senate campaign. 

In the minds of many political analysts, Trump’s endorsement makes Letlow a formidable candidate. 

Formerly a senior official at the University of Louisiana at Monroe, she has been elected to the House three times but ran the first time only because her husband Luke died from COVID in December 2020 just after winning the seat. Last year, she moved from northeast Louisiana to Baton Rouge with her two small children. 

In December, Letlow, 44, got engaged at the White House to Kevin Ainsworth, a Baton Rouge lawyer and lobbyist. 

Trump called them up to the stage to congratulate them and in his Truth Social post Saturday night wrote, “Should she decide to enter this Race, Julia Letlow has my Complete and Total Endorsement.” 

She’s in an enviable position, said Scott Wilfong, a Republican campaign operative. 

“Now it’s perfect timing for her to come in and say I can’t ignore the call from the greatest president of our lifetime and the people from the greatest state in the country,” said Wilfong. “The race may be over. How do you beat the person endorsed by Trump? She has a compelling life story. She lost her husband. I’m just objectively talking. She will be a super candidate.”  

Letlow had been expected to announce her plans by Jan. 28, when Washington Mardi Gras – an annual extravaganza with parties and fund-raisers for Louisiana’s political world – kicks off. 

“It’s going to make an interesting line of conversation in Washington Mardi Gras, with the buzz that’s always there,” said Rodney Alexander, a lobbyist who formerly held Letlow’s congressional seat. “There are always a lot of influential people in business and politics together there at one time.” 

 A surprise announcement 

Republican insiders have been complaining privately for weeks about Letlow’s inaction over whether to run for a full third term in the House or give up that seat and challenge Cassidy, as qualifying the Senate and congressional races grew closer and closer. 

Rumors heated up during the Christmas holidays that she would take on Cassidy but that talk died down. 

It was not a big topic of discussion Friday night when Gov. Jeff Landry held a reception at the Governor’s Mansion for members of the Republican State Central Committee, said two people who attended – nor at the committee’s quarterly meeting on Saturday in Baton Rouge. 

That Trump announced the decision Saturday night caught most people by surprise. 

Landry, Fleming, Miguez and Emerson were all attending an annual fund-raising gala for Louisiana Right to Life at Le Pavillion in Lafayette when news broke. Word spread like wildfire in the room. (Cassidy had attended the group’s gala event in New Orleans the night before.) 

Some heavyweights still back Cassidy 

 Trump’s endorsement came as an odd juxtaposition to a major fundraiser Cassidy held at the Baton Rouge Renaissance Hotel, where Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota was the star attraction. 

Cassidy’s team said he raised $650,000 that night, his campaign said. 

Rispone introduced Cassidy to the big crowd. Other heavy-hitters who showed their support for Cassidy were Baton Rouge business owner Lane Grigsby, Baton Rouge trial attorney Gordon McKernan and state Senate President Cameron Henry, R-Metairie. 

“It does not change my support [of Cassidy],” Henry said Sunday, referring to Trump’s endorsement. 

Richard Lipsey, another Baton Rouge business owner and major fundraiser, echoed Henry’s statement. 

Cassidy “has done a lot for the state and our country. He’s made a fabulous public servant for many years,” Lipsey said, adding that he also is a fan of Letlow. 

James Davison, a major business owner and donor in Ruston, said he had thought Trump would stay neutral. 

“I like her a lot and am close to her,” Davison said and added, “I think Cassidy has done a lot of us. I’m alright either way. I hate to see two Republicans running against each other who are strong.”  

On Sunday, Fleming said in a text that he’s staying in the race and that polls show him thumping Cassidy head-to-head in a Republican Party runoff.  

Miguez and Emerson have both been touting themselves as young MAGA warriors. They didn’t respond to texts on Sunday. 

Skrmetta hasn’t raised any money, leading to doubts that he’ll actually qualify. But on Sunday he said he is about to hold his first fund-raiser. 

Kathy Seiden, a first-term St. Tammany Parish council member, announced in October that she’s also challenging Cassidy. 

Three little-known Democrats have said they plan to run as well. 

If Letlow runs for the Senate, that will create a wide-open race for her 5th Congressional District, which was based in northeast Louisiana when Letlow was first elected in 2021 but has been reconfigured and now includes the Florida Parishes and predominantly White precincts in Baton Rouge. 

State Sen. Rick Edmonds, R-Baton Rouge, on Sunday said he would run, while state Rep. Dixon McMakin, R-Baton Rouge, texted an advertising logo he has already designed for his campaign. 

State Sen. Stewart Cathey, R-Monroe, state Rep. Daryl Deshotel, R-Hessmer, and state Rep. Michael Echols, R-Monroe, all said on Sunday they are considering the race.