New Orleans area residents and officials on Tuesday made preparations for a potential major rain event, distributing sandbags and warning of localized flooding in the region as a tropical disturbance brewed near Corpus Christi, Texas. 

National Hurricane Center forecasters give the storm — which as of Tuesday morning was dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone One — a 70% chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next two days, possibly as early as Wednesday morning. The storm is “fairly close to transitioning into a tropical depression,” according to Eric Blake, a senior hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center. 

If it does, it will become Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of this year’s hurricane season.

The worst case, forecasters warned on Tuesday afternoon, is that some areas could see 20 inches of rain through Thursday, though five to ten inches is the more likely forecast in most of the storm’s path. The heaviest rain in Louisiana is expected in a band around the Baton Rouge and Lafayette areas, as well as along a swath of the northshore, which are forecast to see more rain than New Orleans. A moderate risk of flash flooding extends in a wide band from Corpus Christi to Atlanta.

Even if this storm doesn’t earn a name, rainfall is expected to be heavy along the Louisiana coast. Residents should expect some coastal and potentially dangerous flash flooding by midweek, forecasters said.

“Whether or not it becomes a tropical cyclone, the biggest hazard is going to be the rainfall, and potentially flooding along the Gulf Coast,” said Robbie Berg, a warning coordination meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami. “That hazard is going to occur regardless of whether it gets the name.”

It has also already earned the season’s first “cone of uncertainty” forecast track, and it’s aimed at the Louisiana-Texas border. The storm will keep heading northeast, moving offshore and gaining some strength over the Gulf’s hot waters. It will track the Texas coastline northward, increasing in speed gradually over the next few days. 

While the storm is expected to bring heavy rain, it isn’t likely to bring especially strong winds to the New Orleans region. A flood watch is in effect for the entire region through Friday morning, with parts of the northshore facing flash flood warnings on Tuesday afternoon. Moderate storm surge of two to four feet is expected from the upper Texas coast to Morgan City. 

The tropical storm warning extends from Sabine Pass to Morgan City, but doesn’t include Southeast Louisiana. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the upper Texas coast from Sargent to Sabine Pass. 

Still, the weather service warns that “a tornado or two” is possible, anywhere from the upper Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle. 

The New Orleans region prepares

Officials across the New Orleans region urged residents to make preparations and mobilized government resources to assist. 

Emma Skillbred, a spokesperson at the New Orleans Office of Coordination and Emergency Management, said the city was in close touch with the National Weather Service and other agencies.

Their primary concern is heavy rain and localized flash flooding. They urged residents to avoid unnecessary travel and not to drive through flooded roads.

“Floodwaters are often deeper than they appear, and just a small amount of moving water can carry away a vehicle,” she said. 

Sewerage & Water Board General Superintendent Kaitlin Tymrak asked residents to keep an eye on catch basins and sweep away any debris on the street surface to avoid having it run into storm drains. Catch basins clogged by debris can be reported to the city by calling 311.

“We monitor all of the underpass stations. Our crews go out and will typically do a cleaning of each underpass as well,” Tymrak said, describing storm preparations.

S&WB officials say the drainage system is generally able to handle one inch of rain in the first hour of a storm and half an inch thereafter. At least five storms have exceeded those thresholds since December 2023, resulting in widespread street flooding.

“If we were to get three inches in an hour, that would very likely overwhelm parts of our drainage system. We have a very robust system, but it can only handle so much based on its design,” Tymrak said.

Jefferson Parish officials also advised residents to make sure their storm drains are clear, and said that 196 of the parish’s 198 pumps are online. The two that are out of commission are the Harvey pump station and the Pailet pump station, but both have additional pumping capacity.

In St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, and St. Tammany parishes, sandbag distribution was already underway. 

Not uncommon

It might feel early to have a storm develop in the Gulf, but Berg with the National Hurricane Center said it’s completely normal. 

“We commonly see tropical cyclone development in the Gulf and off the southeast coast of the U.S.,” he said. “It is actually not that abnormal to have a storm form this time of year.”

Since 1950, there have been only four hurricane landfalls along the Gulf Coast in the month of June. 

But named tropical storms swirling through the Gulf far before peak hurricane season are much more common. In the last two decades, there have been 16 named storms in the Gulf during the month of June. 

Staff writers Ben Myers, Marco Cartolano, Lara Nicholson, Joni Hess, and Justin Mitchell contributed reporting.