It’s been a rainy week, but drought persists in parts of Louisiana. Here’s why

Louisiana’s months-long drought could be coming to an end soon.

The U.S. Drought Monitor, a collaboration between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Drought Mitigation Center and U.S. Department of Agriculture, has designated most of southeast Louisiana as abnormally dry, with some areas experiencing moderate drought.

The drought began in mid-March, with over 10% of the state in drought conditions and 22% abnormally dry. It was expected to end by mid-June, but as of May 2 drought conditions in the state had barely changed.

However, that earlier prediction was when a large portion of April was forecast to be wetter than normal. Last month, New Orleans’ rainfall amounts were about 2 in. below average. So far this month, New Orleans has gotten about 0.4 in of rain above average.

“That’s a drop in the bucket considering our average is close to 70 inches per year,” said Robert Frye, senior meteorologist at the National Weather Service.

So far in 2023, we’ve gotten a total of 13 in. of rain. That’s 7 in. less than the 20 in. average amount of rain New Orleans would usually get by this time of year.

The average amount of rain for May is about 5.6 in. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts Louisiana is 40-50% likely to have above average precipitation through the 24th. This will go down to 33-40% likely above average for the last week of the month.

There is hope in sight for rain to pick up this month. There’s a 70% chance of thunderstorms in New Orleans throughout the day Thursday, likely up to half an inch, with localized flooding possible.

New Orleans will continue to get more rain for the next week. There’s a 30% chance of rain Friday and chances of rain Monday and Tuesday, though rainfall amounts aren’t certain yet.

The Climate Prediction Center’s monthly drought outlook says that southeast Louisiana should have at least some drought relief by the end of May. It says however that drought removal will be likely through July if dry conditions persist.