Francine path updates: Where will forecasted hurricane make landfall?

Editor’s note: Read Tuesday’s updates on Francine as the storm takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Francine, which formed Monday, has taken a slow, meandering path across the Gulf. It’s now gathering speed and taking direct aim on the Louisiana Gulf Coast, with landfall expected there sometime on Wednesday.

“Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through this afternoon, and then move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday,” the National Hurricane Center said in a midday Tuesday forecast. Towns closest to the location of expected landfall include Morgan City and Houma, Louisiana.

New Orleans should brace for major flooding rain, winds of up to 73 mph, the possibility of tornadoes and 3-5 feet of storm surge, the local weather service office said Tuesday. The city, infamously ravaged by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, was just to the east of Francine’s worst impacts, according to Tuesday forecasts.

After landfall, the storm’s center is expected to move into Mississippi “on Wednesday night or Thursday.”

As the system approaches the central Gulf Coast and eventually pushes inland across Louisiana, an increased threat of life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and considerable flash flooding is anticipated, the hurricane center warned.

As Francine neared, authorities called for a mandatory evacuation of residents in three coastal communities, schools were shut and officials distributed sandbags.

Tropical Storm Francine tracker

What’s causing Francine to move north?

Other weather systems are shoving Francine around: An approaching trough of low pressure over Texas should cause Francine to turn northeast at a faster forward speed during the next 24-36 hours, “and this motion should bring the center to the Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening,” the hurricane center said.

“After landfall, Francine should turn more northward between the trough and a mid-level ridge over the eastern United States.”

Louisiana no stranger to storms

The most recent hurricane to hit Louisiana was Ida in 2021, AccuWeather said. “Between 2019 and 2021, Louisiana had eight tropical storms or hurricane landfalls, including major hurricanes Laura and Ida,” noted Alyssa Glenny, AccuWeather meteorologist, in an online report.

Heavy rain and inland flood threat

Along with the threat from strong winds and storm surge comes the threat for heavy rainfall:

“Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding for far northeast Mexico into the far southern coast of Texas today and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday,” the hurricane center said. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning.

Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts up to 12 inches are forecast across much of central and eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday night, the National Weather Service said.

Francine spaghetti models

Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.