College football predictions: Bet Louisiana to win Sun Belt

One of the most interesting conferences heading into the 2024 college football season is the Sun Belt. One of the deepest conferences in the country, the Sun Belt has five teams with betting odds lower than 10-1 to win the championship led by Appalachian State (+275), Texas State (+400) and Louisiana (+600).

Here is a breakdown of the top contenders in the Sun Belt and my pick to emerge as conference champion. 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Appalachian State Mountaineers (+275)

Appalachian State is the rightful favorite entering the season. The Mountaineers return 14 starters off last year’s nine-win team. Quarterback Joey Aguilar was the 2023 Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year and he should be even better in his second season under center. 

The conference schedule is manageable, although ASU does play back-to-back road games at Marshall and Louisiana in October. Navigate through that rough patch and the Mountaineers will be in good shape for a spot in the title game. 

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Texas State Bobcats (+400)

Texas State was one of the biggest surprises in college football last season. The Bobcats finished 8-5 and won a bowl game over Rice. This season, Texas State returns 18 starters and is a serious threat to win the conference title. 

G.J. Kinne has done a masterful job at using the transfer portal to improve the overall talent at Texas State. The Bobcats avoid the top teams in the East Division and host Louisiana. They do lose quarterback TJ Finley but picked up Jordan McCloud from James Madison, who is the reigning Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. 

Texas State has the most talented roster top to bottom in the Sun Belt. Toss in one of the conference’s easiest schedules and this is the team to beat. 

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (+600)

I really like this Louisiana squad. The Ragin’ Cajuns return 15 starters from last year’s team that finished 6-7 and lost five games by a touchdown or less. If Louisiana figures out how to win close games, it is a serious threat to win the Sun Belt. 

The key to Louisiana will be a defense that returns eight starters, including leading tackler K.C. Ossai. This unit has a chance to be the Sun Belt’s top defense if they improve in the red zone. Last year, the Ragin’ Cajuns’ defense allowed opponents to score on 82.8 percent of their red zone trips. 

Louisiana hosts Appalachian State and travels to Texas State. How the Ragin’ Cajuns perform in those two games will decide if they are playing for a Sun Belt title in December. 

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Pick to win Sun Belt Conference 

Louisiana (+600)

I think the Sun Belt winner will come down to Texas State and Louisiana. I expect one of those two teams to win the West and reach the conference championship game. I lean slightly to Louisiana at +600. If the Ragin’ Cajuns can close out tight games, they have the talent to be the best team in the conference.