Why is No. 14 Ole Miss a touchdown favorite over No. 7 Kentucky?

The AP’s school soccer rankings are supposed to find out one of the best groups within the nation. No. 1 is meant to be a greater workforce than No. 2 if each groups performed on a impartial subject. The identical goes with No. 2 and three, 3 and 4…and so forth and so forth. Due to this fact, it got here as a large shock when bettors awakened final Sunday and noticed a sure betting line for Week 5.

On the schedule was No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss. On a floor stage, you’d suppose Kentucky, regardless of being the highway workforce, can be the favourite, or on the very least, very small underdogs. WRONG! They had been 6.5-point underdogs firstly of the week. The rankings are all the time going to be the very first thing any informal bettor sees. They see a seven subsequent to Kentucky and a 14 subsequent to Ole Miss and suppose, “Alright! That’s a mistake! Time to make the sportsbooks sorry. I’ll take the underdog Kentucky to cowl.” Nonetheless, it is a basic Admiral Ackbar state of affairs. It’s an infinite entice!

This created a really, very lopsided distribution of bets poured in Kentucky’s favor. Eighty % of bettors had been betting on Kentucky to cowl. That stated, solely 53 % of the cash was in Kentucky’s favor. That’s telling. Individuals are extra keen to place larger greenback quantities on a worse-ranked workforce that would wish to win by a landing or extra. Why? What do these bettors and the sportsbooks know that may’t be defined by the workforce’s rating?

Whereas Kentucky is the higher workforce total, Ole Miss seems to be a nightmare matchup. Kentucky’s largest weak point is its offensive line. By 4 weeks, Kentucky is final within the SEC in yards per carry at 2.41. The Wildcats have additionally surrendered essentially the most sacks within the SEC with quarterback Will Levis having hit the turf 16 occasions already this 12 months. Whereas the O-line is normally a power at Kentucky, this 12 months Professional Soccer Focus ranks them 66th within the nation in move blocking and 77th in run blocking. That’s not good, but it surely will get worse while you understand the place Ole Miss’s largest power lies.

The Rebels’ entrance seven is among the hardest within the nation. They rank second within the SEC in sacks and third in tackles for loss. In accordance with PFF, Ole Miss ranks forty fourth within the nation in run blocking with a 77.9 grade and 14th in move rush. That’s a fairly large discrepancy, and whereas the Rebels have sustained Sure, the Wildcats will see the return of preseason All-American Chris Rodriguez Jr., however an incredible working again usually doesn’t make up for poor offensive line play.

On the flip aspect of the ball, Ole Miss has been probably the most efficient dashing groups in FBS, averaging 280.8 yards per recreation on the bottom. Kentucky’s secondary has been nice this 12 months, rating fifteenth in passing yards allowed per recreation and eighth in passer score allowed. Nonetheless, that entrance seven, regardless of constantly holding opponents to below their season common, has benefited closely from the sport script. In each recreation this 12 months, the Wildcats have led by at the least a landing in the beginning of the fourth quarter. That’s going to advertise a pass-heavy offense from each opponent and that’s the place Kentucky’s power lies. Kentucky likes to run defenses with gentle field strain, however towards a workforce like Ole Miss that loves nothing greater than to run the ball down their opponent’s throats, that might come again to chew them.

Is the road too excessive?? Possibly, however Vegas tends to be superb at setting traces. If they weren’t, they wouldn’t make any cash, and everyone knows they’re solely in it for the cash. Whereas I consider Kentucky to be the higher workforce total, Ole Miss’ strengths offensively and defensively match up so completely towards Kentucky that I can’t assist however perceive why sportsbooks would have the No. 7 workforce within the nation as such hefty underdogs. Mainly, as a lot of a layup as this recreation could appear at a look, all the time do your analysis earlier than throwing cash down.