Kentucky
The allure of Publix: Why new grocery chain could upend local market
Attention local grocery shoppers: competition is about to heat up as Publix prepares to invade the region with the first of five (so far) planned stores in 2025.
By moving into Greater Cincinnati, the Lakeland, Florida-based, supermarket chain is challenging Cincinnati-based Kroger on its home turf. Publix opened its first grocery store in Kentucky a year ago and has announced plans to open a dozen more, including the five for Northern Kentucky.
For most people, that means a celebration of Publix subs, gallons of sweet tea, and even sweeter weekly BOGO (buy-one-get-one) deals.
Kroger has been a Cincinnati institution since its first store opened in the city more than 140 years ago. Headquartered Downtown, it dominates the region’s grocery business with more than 50% market share worth more than $4.2 billion in sales, according to Tampa-based industry-tracker Chain Store Guide. The company, which employs nearly 20,000 people in the Greater Cincinnati area, did not comment for this story.
Publix has something Kroger doesn’t, though. It’s one of the rare grocery stores that’s amassed a kind of pop culture currency with a fan following.
People wait in line for hours at grand openings. An online search pulls up photos of Publix tattoos. People dress their babies up as the store’s famous sub sandwiches.
That happens all while Publix defies supermarket industry norms: its stores are not big; its prices are not cheap; and it’s growing aggressively.
So, what’s the hype and what does it mean for Publix to open just 15 miles away from Kroger’s home base?
The Enquirer has spent weeks delving into the world of all things Publix in anticipation of its first Northern Kentucky opening. This is what we’ve found.
Publix merch, tattoos, and an ‘answered prayer’
Louisville resident Alex Musser knew what he had to do when he heard a Publix was opening in his city.
“I want to be the first person to get a Publix sub,” he thought to himself.
So he made a plan.
Musser, 37, took a half-day off from his job as an oral surgeon. He showed up to the new store at 5 a.m. where he waited in the January cold for two hours in the snow. And when the doors opened, he rushed to the deli to place his order: a Boar’s Head Ultimate (ham, turkey and roast beef) sub on white bread with mayonnaise on both sides, mustard, lettuce, pickles, black olives, salt, pepper, and oil and vinegar.
“I’m from Florida and it just made sense. So I did it,” Musser told The Enquirer, joking that Publix in Kentucky is an “answered prayer.”
He grew up in the city of Lakeland, just east of Tampa, where Publix is headquartered.
Musser’s sandwich of choice is the same kind Orlando resident Todd Hopton got tattooed on his right calf at the beginning of January, along with a gallon of the store’s sweet tea.
It joins other Florida-themed tattoos on the leg, like a flamingo and alligator.
“There’s not really a whole lot more that’s more Florida than Publix,” he told The Enquirer.
In the Sunshine State, the store is just part of life.
Going to the beach? Grab a Pub Sub. Going shopping with your kids? They get a free cookie at the bakery. Want a mini-date night? Some of the stores have a bar called Publix Pours where you can get a glass of wine, cup of coffee, or try a beer flight.
That helps create a kind of organic brand loyalty that few other grocery stores can accomplish. New York-based Wegmans has Wegmaniacs who love the hot food bar and niche item selection. Texas-based grocer H-E-B lures people in with its fresh tortillas and state pride focus. Publix lovers don’t have a cute name, but one news article dubbed the supermarket’s following the “cult of Publix.
As the company has steadily grown outside of Florida and throughout seven other southeast states, it has ridden a line between representing its Florida roots while also supporting local vendors in whichever state it’s in.
For instance, in Louisville, you can get a Florida-style key lime pie at all its stores along with key lime ice cream. But you can also get local Kentucky-made products that are arranged with their own display in the stores.
Will that matter in Kentucky?
Louisville private chef Todd Alexander isn’t sure.
He attended the Louisville grand opening and was struck by the store’s immaculate appearance and broad selection in its produce department. The only thing that gave him pause were the prices, which he thought were a little high.
He said, “In today’s economy, families are price-conscious.”
How and where Publix has grown
Publix was a Florida-exclusive supermarket chain for 60 years.
Founded in 1930, by George Jenkins a former Piggly Wiggly store manager, Publix grew through the end of the 20th century to become a dominant grocery chain in Florida. The retailer is the No. 1 grocer in Miami, Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples, Key West and other destinations in the Sunshine State, according to Chain Store Guide.
It began opening stores outside of the state in the early 1990s, but growth was slow and cautious. Thirty years ago, just 43 of its 470 total stores operated outside Florida.
Since then, its presence has nearly doubled to 859 stores in-state while its non-Florida footprint has increased tenfold to more than 500 stores. Today, more than one-third of Publix’s 1,360 stores are outside of Florida.
And competition with Kroger or Walmart is nothing new to the company.
Publix’s largest market outside of Florida is the metro Atlanta area where it has established 150 stores since 1991. The company does more than $6 billion in sales and is the No. 2 grocer behind Kroger.
In just over two decades in Tennessee, the Publix presence in the Nashville market has grown to 36 stores and $1.5 billion in sales. It’s now the third biggest grocer behind Kroger and Walmart in Nashville.
Why build in Kentucky?
As the company has grown, so has its number of distribution centers, which makes it easier to transport products.
Jared Glover, media relations manager at Publix, said a new distribution center in Greensboro, North Carolina, was one of the key reasons the company was able to move into Kentucky.
The company broke ground on the facility in 2020 and expanded it to include a dry storage area by 2022. That distribution center is just over seven hours away from Northern Kentucky.
The company also knew its loyal Florida customer base would help the stores compete.
“For us, we had already been scanning out the area for a while. We knew a lot of people have traveled to and from Florida that live in Kentucky, believe it or not,” Glover added.
In 2023, for instance, an estimated 18,740 Floridians moved to Ohio, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That’s 10% of all new residents.
Kentucky saw an influx of 5,243 Florida transplants, which was about 5% of all new transplants, according to the census bureau.
How does Publix compete?
Publix’s success confounds some industry experts because the company has a track record of defying norms. It often takes different directions from industry trends pursued by rivals.
The retail’s current prototype store is small: 32,000 to 62,000 square feet, compared to a typical 200,000 square-foot Walmart supercenter or 100,000 square-foot Kroger Marketplace.
While customers love its weekly BOGO sales promotions, Publix is hardly a bargain retailer with its gross profit margin (the initial profit realized on goods sold to customers) topping 26% in its last fiscal year, compared to 22% at Kroger. And while many retailers jam as many product displays as possible into its aisles, Publix prizes clear, uncluttered site lines in its stores.
“It’s the antithesis of what anyone says will work in the grocery industry,” Scott Mushkin, the managing partner of research firm R5 Capital, said. “Publix does the opposite and they’re very successful.”
Mushkin said Publix has succeeded by embracing being a classic grocery store – albeit a very clean, well-lit one and avoiding the pitfalls of overwhelmingly large stores that are cluttered and hard to navigate.
A healthy thriving business fuels Publix’s expansion: while its $57 billion in sales during its last fiscal year is barely more than one-third of Kroger’s $150 billion in revenue, Publix is more profitable: $4.3 billion in net earnings in 2023 vs. $2.2 billion at Kroger.
Northern Kentucky grand openings
The first Publix in Northern Kentucky will open at the Triple Crown Shopping Center, which is right near the luxury Triple Crown neighborhood where homes can cost up to $2 million and residents get around the winding streets and greenspace in golf carts.
It’s located less than 10 miles away from the nearest Kroger.
The 56,000-square-foot store will likely look a lot like the first Publix at the Terra Crossing Shopping Center in Louisville.
That store is also around 56,000 square feet (about half the size of a typical Kroger Marketplace store design).
The Enquirer visited the store this winter.
The store has grocery basics like meat, seafood, dairy and bakery. But it stands out with its deli area where employees make subs, sandwiches, and wraps to order, including its well-known chicken tender sub.
The site also includes a Publix Pours, a cafe and bar dining area that invites shoppers to linger and stay for lunches or other quick bites including subs, soup and pizza. Also, located next door, was Publix’s 3,200-square-foot liquor store.
The store also has food stations serving up burger-pizza (yes, that’s hamburger patties on pizza), pasta, and sushi.
Publix is tight-lipped about what the other stores in the area will look like.
Here’s what we know about the four other locations:
- Independence: a 48,387-square-foot facility and 3,200-square-foot liquor store on nearly 20 acres of land at the northeast intersection of Madison Pike and Harris Pike, roughly located in central Kenton County.
- Cold Spring: a 48,387-square-foot store on just over 53 acres. It will be part of a shopping area known as Cold Spring Pointe at the southeast corner of Ky. 9/AA Highway and Alexandria Pike.
- Boone County: a roughly 56,000-square-foot store with an attached 3,200-square-foot liquor store and a drive-through pharmacy at what will be known as the Farmview Commons, which borders Florence and Union on U.S. Highway 42.
- Hebron: The 50,325-square-foot store will be located in Hebron at the southwest corner of Williams Road and Worldwide Boulevard at a development called The Shoppes at Hebron Pointe.