Men’s college basketball picks: Kentucky-Louisville, Kansas-Oklahoma State and more

We consider January because the month when convention play will get totally underway, however 2022 goes to kiss us goodbye with a packed slate of league contests, topped by a historic rivalry between two struggling groups. I additionally heard someplace that there may be some actually cool soccer video games being performed as properly. What extra might you need from New Yr’s Eve?

To kind all of it out on the hoops finish of issues, your prescient prognosticator is again to finish this 12 months on a heater. You’ll discover from the standings beneath that I’m amassing tokens like a lot Instances Sq. confetti, and I intend so as to add to the pile Saturday. As all the time, I’ve 100 tokens to placed on these video games as I see match, with a minimal of 10 on every recreation. No man is a failure who has tokens!

All strains are by way of BetMGM.

Louisville at Kentucky (-23 1/2), Midday ET, CBS. These are two proud packages having two awful seasons, though by completely different levels. Kentucky is having a tough time dwelling as much as preseason projections, and Louisville was humiliated as soon as once more Wednesday evening in an 89-75 loss at Missouri. The Cardinals had a lot decrease expectations coming into Kenny Payne’s first season (they had been picked to complete twelfth within the ACC’s preseason media ballot), but they’ve someway managed to carry out exponentially worse. They didn’t win their first recreation till Dec. 14, and they’re the lowest-ranked energy convention group on KenPom (No. 257), though they’ve received two of their previous 4 video games and have been higher offensively throughout that stretch. But, that is nonetheless a giant rivalry, made even larger by the truth that Payne spent 10 years as an assistant to John Calipari in Lexington. The Cats even have an harm concern with 6-foot-3 senior guard C.J. Fredrick, who left the Missouri recreation early within the first half with a dislocated finger. And the one factor Louisville does have is dimension within the frontcourt, so it has an opportunity to make issues difficult inside for Oscar Tshiebwe. I’m simply undecided UK needs to be favored by this a lot over any group, even one as unhealthy as Louisville. I feel the Playing cards will make it no less than just a little bit fascinating. The decide: 10 tokens on Louisville.

UConn (-2 1/2) at Xavier, Midday ET, Fox. When you look intently — like, for those who squint actual arduous — you possibly can see indicators of mortality in these Huskies. They trailed lowly Georgetown at residence by seven factors with 11 minutes to play earlier than successful by 11. They led Villanova at residence by two factors with three minutes to play earlier than successful by eight. The Wildcats restricted UConn’s two-headed monster at heart, Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan, to a mixed 13 factors, and nobody on Villanova is taller than 6-8. Xavier, alternatively, begins 7-foot senior Jack Nunge and 6-9 senior Zach Freemantle up entrance, with 6-8 senior ahead Jerome Hunter coming off the bench. The Musketeers even have a veteran level guard in super-senior Souley Boum, who has been a revelation after transferring from UTEP. They’ve additionally received seven in a row. Except you assume UConn goes to run the desk, Cintas Heart is among the most definitely locations the Huskies will lose this season. I feel it occurs. The decide: 10 tokens on Xavier.

GO DEEPER

Bracket Watch: UConn, Purdue are twin pinnacles, however a lot meeting stays

Texas Tech at TCU (-3 1/2), Midday ET, ESPNU. I’ve been pumping up TCU all season regardless of its many harm and personnel points, however now that the Horned Frogs are lastly at full power — they simply began the identical 5 guys in consecutive video games for the primary time all season — they’re able to make me look prescient. Jamie Dixon has totally imported his previous Pittsburgh tradition to Fort Price. TCU is ranked No. 22 in adjusted defensive effectivity on KenPom and 18th in offensive rebound proportion. The Frogs don’t make lots of 3s, however they deal with the ball (twenty first in turnover proportion). They usually have a bona fide bucket-getter in 6-1 junior guard Mike Miles, who was banged up earlier within the season however is second within the Huge 12 in scoring (18.1) and sixth in area aim proportion (51.4). Texas Tech can also be enjoying its normal robust D (twenty ninth in effectivity, per KenPom), however the Purple Raiders’ weak nonconference schedule (it’s ranked No. 331 within the NET) has not ready them properly for this recreation. They performed solely two high 100 KenPom groups (Creighton and Ohio State) and misplaced to them each. The decide: 20 tokens on TCU.

Oklahoma State at Kansas (-10 1/2), 2 p.m. ET, CBS. Mike Boynton’s Cowboys aren’t precisely overflowing with offensive expertise — their main scorer, Avery Anderson, averages 12.2 factors per recreation — so their mission is to attempt to win ugly. It has labored, for probably the most half. The Pokes rank fifth within the nation in area aim proportion protection (36.0), and so they have held opponents to 61.5 factors per recreation. It helps that they’ve been capable of keep away from accidents, which has allowed Boynton to make use of the identical beginning lineup for all 12 video games. Nonetheless, Oklahoma State is transferring up a weight class, and the duty will probably be even more durable given Kansas will probably be rested and prepared after a nine-day layoff between video games. Defensively, Oklahoma State depends closely on 7-1 junior heart Moussa Cisse, who’s sixth within the nation in blocks proportion and first in defensive rebound proportion, however Invoice Self has had nice success up to now utilizing a smaller lineup, so it will likely be arduous for Cisse to play his normal minutes. Plus, Oklahoma State ranks 317th within the nation in turnover proportion, which ought to imply a number of pick-six alternatives for the speedy Jayhawks. The decide: 20 tokens on Kansas.

Texas (-2 1/2) at Oklahoma, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN+. The Longhorns are in an odd place with Chris Beard’s indefinite unpaid suspension, however Marcus Carr is doing his greatest to shoot them by means of it. The 6-2 super-senior guard scored a career-high 41 factors and tied a faculty file with 10 made 3s in Texas’ 97-72 win over Texas A&M-Commerce on Tuesday evening. Carr is making 44.6 % from behind the arc, a drastic enchancment on his 33.8 % clip final season. For sure, he’ll face a a lot larger caliber of protection in opposition to the Sooners, who rank sixth within the U.S. in 3-point protection (26.4 %) and seventh in defensive rebound proportion. The Sooners began the season with a one-point loss at residence to Sam Houston State, however they’ve had some good wins, and so they had been aggressive in losses to Villanova (street) and Arkansas (impartial). They play a glacial tempo (338th nationally in tempo) and are led by a veteran guard in 6-2 senior Grant Sherfield, who scored 22 factors in Tuesday’s win over Florida in Charlotte and is considered one of 4 seniors or super-seniors within the beginning lineup. Texas is the higher group, however when you’ve got an opportunity to take a house underdog in a league recreation, you do it, particularly this early within the season. The decide: 10 tokens on Oklahoma.

Arizona (-6 1/2) at Arizona State, 2 p.m. ET, Fox. This was a circle-your-calendar recreation simply a few weeks in the past, however there are main query marks concerning the Solar Devils after their 97-60 loss at San Francisco on Dec. 21. There’s no disgrace in enjoying poorly or shedding to a great group, particularly contemplating ASU was lacking its third-leading scorer, Desmond Cambridge, who was out due to a non-COVID-19 sickness. The Solar Devils have used a swarming protection (they’re fourth within the nation in 2-point D at 40.5 %) to energy their 11-2 begin, and so they’re going to want to rediscover that in opposition to Arizona’s offensive juggernaut. The Wildcats lead the nation in adjusted offensive effectivity and 2-point proportion (62.5), and they’re second in scoring (90.2), eighth in help price and tenth in tempo. Can ASU, which is 191st nationally in tempo, impose its will? I’m skeptical, even at residence. The decide: 10 tokens on Arizona.

Baylor (-1 1/2) at Iowa State, 2 p.m. ET, ESPNU. That is the precise time, opponent and place the place the rubber hit the street for the Cyclones final season. They got here into their New Yr’s Day residence recreation in opposition to Baylor undefeated and ranked No. 8 within the AP ballot. The Bears pulled out a 77-72 win, and some weeks and several other losses later, the Cyclones had been unranked and combating for his or her tourney lives. The distinction in that recreation was Iowa State’s 1-of-14 3-point taking pictures. The Cyclones haven’t relied all that closely on the deep shot this season, and Baylor isn’t the identical defensive group it was a 12 months in the past. The Bears are forty first nationally in adjusted defensive effectivity; final 12 months they had been thirteenth. And the Bears had been terrible defensively of their solely different street recreation this season, permitting Marquette to attain 1.39 factors per possession in a 96-70 rout on Nov. 29. Nonetheless, whereas I’d in any other case be inclined to lean into Hilton Magic on this one, Iowa State will probably be enjoying with out its high rebounder, 6-8 senior ahead Aljaz Kunc, who will miss the following few weeks with a damaged finger. So I’ll lean the opposite manner. The decide: 10 tokens on Baylor.

Marquette at Villanova (-1 1/2), 2 p.m. ET, FS1. Give Kyle Neptune credit score for righting the ship at Villanova. His first 12 months succeeding Jay Wright began disastrously, however after a 2-5 begin the Cats have received 5 of their previous six and acquitted themselves properly in a 74-66 loss at UConn on Wednesday evening. Nova isn’t getting close to the identical manufacturing at level guard it has the previous few years, however that is nonetheless a wonderful offensive group (sixteenth in effectivity, per KenPom) that after once more leads the nation in free-throw proportion (84.1). The Wildcats face as a lot of a must-win as a group can have in late December. The Golden Eagles are again to enjoying the up-tempo model that was Shaka Good’s signature throughout his VCU days, and they’re brimming with confidence following wins over Baylor, Creighton and Seton Corridor at residence. All of their 4 losses had been aggressive, and two had been in extra time. Marquette doesn’t have a lot dimension, but it surely does have a flexible glue man in 6-9 junior ahead Oso Ighodaro, who’s averaging 11.9 factors, 7.0 rebounds and three.4 assists per recreation. I like that Villanova is a determined residence group, and given Marquette’s make-up and enjoying model, this can be a excellent recreation for Villanova freshman Cam Whitmore to get proper once more. He has performed in solely six video games after lacking the primary seven following offseason thumb surgical procedure, however he has been quiet the previous three. The decide: 10 tokens on Villanova.

(Prime photograph of Kansas’ Okay.J. Adams: Jay Biggerstaff / USA At this time)