Kentucky vs Auburn predictions? Can UK football pull off road win in Week 10?

When the Kentucky and Auburn football programs met last season in Lexington, it featured two struggling clubs. The Wildcats were 14th in the 16-team SEC, with a 1-4 record in conference games at that point; the Tigers were 0-4 and in a tie for last (alongside Mississippi State).

A year later, UK and AU are once more fighting to climb out of the conference cellar.

Kentucky is last in the league standings, sitting at 0-5. Auburn is only one game better, with a 1-4 mark. The Tigers have a better overall record as well. They’re .500 (4-4) on the season, while the Wildcats are 2-5.

UK and coach Mark Stoops seek an end to a 10-game conference losing streak that has lasted more than a year.

The Wildcats also hope they can change their luck in the series with the Tigers. Heading into Saturday night’s matchup, Auburn is 28-6-1 versus Kentucky all time. AU is 19-1 against UK in the past 20 meetings.

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Which Kentucky defense shows up? The one that limited Texas to fewer than 200 yards in an overtime loss on Oct. 18? Or the one that gave up seven touchdowns and more than 500 yards in a one-sided setback to Tennessee last week? Much like life, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle. Think back to last season’s game between the Wildcats and Tigers: It was 10-all at halftime before Auburn scored the final 14 points in a 24-10 win at Kroger Field. Expect another close battle for a good portion of Saturday night’s contest on the Plains. But the Wildcats haven’t been able to get over the hump and vanquish an SEC foe in quite some time. Desperate for a winning season for the first time since 2020 — an accomplishment that, perhaps, would save coach Hugh Freeze’s job in the process — Auburn will hold serve at home and hand Kentucky its 11th consecutive conference loss.

Why Kentucky has an advantage: The Wildcats have clarity at quarterback. While the Tigers are sorting through whether to stick with Jackson Arnold (who started the first eight games this fall) or Ashton Daniels (who led a second-half comeback to top Arkansas last week), the Wildcats know Cutter Boley is QB1. The redshirt freshman is fresh off a record-setting performance. His five touchdown passes last week set a single-game UK record for a freshman. How well Tigers defensive coordinator DJ Durkin disguises his coverages could be the difference in this one, particularly if Seth McGowan, the Wildcats’ leading rusher and top offensive threat, misses his second straight game and forces the unit to rely more heavily on Boley’s arm.

Why Auburn has an advantage: The Tigers have one of the best defenses around. They give up just 84.1 rushing yards per game, which is second in the SEC and fifth nationally. They also rank among the top 30 in the FBS in scoring defense (18.6 points per game; tied for 21st) and total defense (318.5 yards per game; 29th). The most points Auburn has allowed this fall is 24 — on three occasions (Arkansas, Baylor and Oklahoma). The Tigers are one of only four teams in the country, and the only one that resides in the SEC, not to allow an opponent to reach the 25-point threshold in 2025.

Auburn 31, Kentucky 20.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.