Kansas Jayhawks at Kentucky Wildcats Basketball Preview: Can KU Get Revenge For Last Year’s Beatdown?

The constructive: Kansas will get a much-needed break from the grind of the Large 12 because the SEC-Large 12 Problem takes place all through the day Saturday. The detrimental: the Jayhawks nonetheless must face a top-30 KenPom workforce that has one 4 video games in a row to keep away from a four-game shedding streak.

To not point out it’s one other blue blood with a Corridor of Fame coach (no matter what you consider him this yr) and the reigning nationwide participant of the yr. It’s Kansas and Kentucky, the 2 winningest applications in a recreation the place the Jayhawks can be searching for revenge for the beatdown UK gave them in Lawrence a season in the past.

Opponent Overview

Workforce: Kentucky

Report: 14-6

KenPom: 29

Line: TBD

Workforce Type

Kentucky is without doubt one of the handful of blue bloods this yr which have struggled in comparison with preseason expectations (Duke, UNC, Indiana…). The Wildcats are simply 1-5 in quad-one video games and still have a quad-four loss on the resume. However UK has gotten higher of late.

Kentucky is on a four-game profitable streak. The schedule has not been the hardest, however it did begin with that lone Q1 win at Tennessee. Since then, it has performed Georgia, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt. All had been no-doubt wins and A&M is wanting sturdy, however it’s additionally truthful to level out that is no Large 12 gauntlet.

Gamers to Watch

It’s uncommon {that a} nationwide participant of the yr returns to high school, however that’s what has occurred with Oscar Tshiebwe due to NIL and a altering NBA panorama. Tshiebwe hasn’t been capable of fairly match his NPOY season from final yr—and it was unlikely he was going to win twice given the character of voters and incumbents—however he’s nonetheless been actually, actually good. Tshiebwe is averaging 16.6 factors and 13.9 rebounds and is one way or the other even higher on the offensive boards this yr, grabbing 5.7 per recreation.

Illinois State switch Antonio Reeves is second on the workforce in scoring at 12.9 ppg, which is probably going a shock provided that Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston had been each five-star recruits coming in. Wallace has had a robust season to this point at 11.2 factors and three.6 assists per recreation, however what has stood out essentially the most has been his protection. Wallace is a superb defender and is averaging 1.9 steals per recreation.

Jacob Toppin (11 factors, 6.6 boards), Sahvir Wheeler (8.2 factors, 5.8 assists, three-point specialist CJ Fredrick (8.2 ppg), and Livingston (5.2 ppg) spherical out the Wildcats’ rotation.

Matchups to Watch

Kansas higher get some our bodies and vitality down low as a result of Kentucky is dominant on the offensive glass. UK is second nationally, grabbing 38.8% of its missed photographs. The Wildcats are additionally glorious at preserving opponents off the offensive glass.

What’s fascinating—and the place Kentucky has run into bother—is that for a workforce that grabs so lots of its personal misses, UK isn’t very environment friendly from contained in the arc. Kentucky ranks 174th in 2-point effectivity. Examine that to different nice offensive rebounding groups Kansas has confronted recently (Baylor, TCU, and Ok-State); all three of these groups are within the prime 100 in 2-point proportion.

The Wildcats are additionally a wonderful (forty first nationally) 3-point-shooting workforce, however UK simply doesn’t take them a lot. The 32.2% of threes to field-goal makes an attempt is 304th within the nation. Kentucky has additionally regressed a bit throughout SEC play, capturing simply 32.7% in comparison with 36.9% on the yr. The opposite SEC regression is on the defensive facet. UK has the Tenth-best protection within the convention by way of defensive effectivity and the Wildcats are letting SEC opponents shoot 52% from the sphere.

Prediction

It feels just like the sky is falling proper now, however this is similar workforce that additionally gained 16 of 17 earlier than this level. It simply requires consistency from guys like Kevin McCullar, Dajuan Harris, and KJ Adams. Kentucky is just not going to power many turnovers, they usually have been identified to surrender factors near the basket.

The Jayhawks must hold a protracted, athletic UK workforce off the glass. It may possibly’t be one-and-done for KU on the offensive finish each time whereas Kentucky will get three or 4 probabilities on a possession. I’m not assured it will occur utterly, however I do suppose this workforce, with 5 days to arrange, will look completely different than final weekend.

I’ll take Kansas to rebound in Lexington and prolong the lead because the winningest program within the course of.

Kansas 77, Kentucky 73

Prediction document

10-8-1 ATS

Final recreation – Prediction: 74-71 KU | Precise: 75-69 Baylor