Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: Northern Kentucky Norse

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats hit the road for the first time this season on Tuesday night at Northern Kentucky. Cincinnati lost in this exact scenario two years ago amidst a brutal offensive showing in the second half, but they are ready to avenge that performance with the best UC roster Wes Miller’s had.

UC enters with a 92.9% chance to win the game on ESPN’s Matchup Predictor. The Bearcats are ranked 11th on KenPom, while Northern Kentucky is 186th (highest-ranked UC opponent yet).

“I was pleased with the defensive effort to start the game,” Miller said about his team following Friday’s 86-49 win over Nicholls State. “I was pleased with the defensive effort to start the second half. And there was some good stuff going on.”

Cincinnati is 2-1 all-time against NKU ahead of the 7 p.m. ET Tuesday tip-off on ESPN+.

Will Simas Lukošius keep shooting over 70% from three-point land? Probably not, but Cincinnati is going to be a firm national title contender if he does.

So far, he’s hit 10-14 triple tries to rank tied for third nationally at 71.4% overall. The stroke looks as clean as any shot I’ve seen in person, mixed with the best shape Lukošius has been in during his college career. History says he can’t shoot this well on this type of volume, but above 40% over the full season is very plausible at this rate.

“I don’t feel like he’s forcing the shot at all,” Miller said about his top shooter. “I can’t think of one time when he forced a shot. In fact, early in the game, as he was coming off the floor for the first media timeout, I told him to shoot more. I thought he passed a couple of shots up. He had one he passed up in the corner drove in and turned it over by trying to get a lob to Aziz [Bandaogo]. Those are the turnovers that I can live with because they are aggressive, but he is such a damn good shooter. 

“He hasn’t been forcing them, and I think he’s taking the right shots. I believe you have to give credit to the other guys as well because the ball is popping around. You look down tonight and we have 18 assists. The ball is moving around, and there are a lot of other good players on the floor as well. Simas [Lukosius] is not going to shoot 80% this year, because nobody’s ever done that. I want him to do that but that won’t happen. He is going to have a great year, because he’s a really good player, and he continues to improve.” 

Off the catch, dribble, and in transition, Lukošius is hitting every type of deep shot through three games, all while he and Jizzle James lead the offense with 5.3 assists per game each.

He’s been the second-most efficient offensive player in the Big 12 so far, posting a whopping 40.3 Player Efficiency Rating and a scorching 92.9% effective field goal rate (fifth nationally). Now, he gets to test that shot outside the friendly confines of Fifth Third Arena. A place where UC shot 28.6% from deep two years ago.

The Lithuanian is showing the end of last season wasn’t just some hot streak—it’s who he can consistently be as a college player. We’ll see if the full-season cement can set on this trajectory.

Time will ultimately tell who takes over the top perimeter guarding role on this Bearcats roster, but Jizzle James has led the way so far.

John Newman III looks like he’s rubbed off on the stout young guard. He’s notched an 82.4 defensive rating this season (16th-best in the Big 12), a big improvement from his 104.6 freshman mark. That’s been showcased with strong footwork on defense and complete control of his on-ball physicality (zero fouls committed in three games).

NKU doesn’t boast any daunting guard matchups like Nicholls’ Rob Brown. The Norse’s leading scorers are both guards, but neither are shooting over 42% from the floor.

“Jizzle James is really improved, and I think that’s so obvious guys,” Miller said on Friday. “He was really, really good on defense tonight. I mean, not only did he defeat ball screens, but I don’t think anybody hit him with the ball screen all night. I mean, he was special, so I was pleased with that, and I could keep going down the line, but I thought Jizzle had a really nice night.”

NKU is bottom-10 nationally in scoring average (57 PPG) and has KenPom’s 300th-ranked offense by efficiency. It should be a clamping field day for James and his teammates.

If healthy, Cincinnati has a few different avenues to hit a high ceiling this coming spring, and these early signs from James are great indicators they can keep climbing up the CBB hierarchy.

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