Arkansas vs. Kentucky: How are both sides of John Calipari’s shocking move faring in Year 1?

Last April, on the eve of the men’s national championship game, John Calipari sent shockwaves through college basketball. With the sport focused on the looming heavyweight matchup of reigning champ UConn and Zach Edey-led Purdue, Calipari’s departure from Kentucky, where he had made four Final Fours and won a national title in 15 years as coach, to take over at Arkansas left fans and media members alike flabbergasted.

The ensuing Kentucky coaching search had its twists and turns, but it ultimately landed on beloved alum Mark Pope, previously the coach at BYU. Replacing the larger-than-life Calipari was an unenviable task, and the fact Calipari had landed with an SEC rival ensured the performance of the two coaches would be inextricably linked.

It also ensured Calipari’s return to Rupp Arena would be one of the most anticipated games of the 2024-25 season. Saturday is the Razorbacks and Wildcats’ only scheduled meeting this year, and if the returns of Chris Beard to Texas Tech and Ed Cooley to Providence taught us anything, it’s that college hoops fans will stage quite a spectacle to express their animosity toward a coach who abandons them for a league foe.

Of course, Kentucky fans are likely quite pleased with the tradeoff at this point. Pope’s energy and fan engagement — he brought back former UK coach Rick Pitino for the team’s preseason showcase in October, among other PR victories — has reinvigorated Big Blue Nation, and Kentucky’s 15-5 start with wins over Duke, Florida, Louisville and most recently Tennessee has only fueled the fervor.

Contrast that success with Calipari’s first Arkansas team, which needed six tries to notch its first SEC win of the year, and Kentucky fans figure to have plenty of ammunition Saturday. The Razorbacks are just 12-8 overall, and their 1-6 start to SEC play has them looking like a long shot for an NCAA Tournament berth.

So how did each squad get to Saturday night? Can the underdog Hogs play spoiler for their coach, or will the stars of Pope’s instant rebuild give Kentucky fans even more bragging rights over their departed boss?

Kentucky: Offense humming, starters hurting

Pope and Calipari had to rebuild their rosters from scratch this offseason, turning to the transfer portal to load up on instant-impact talent. But Pope’s haul has fit better together on the floor.

At BYU, Pope directed elite offensive units, emphasizing skill, spacing and unselfishness to put pressure on the opposing defense. His final squad in Provo ranked 14th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency rankings, fueled by high-volume shooting (No. 4 in Division I in 3-point attempt rate) and pinpoint passing (No. 6 in assist rate).

His first Kentucky team is built similarly, with Cougars leading scorer Jaxson Robinson transferring in as a key building block. Robinson and Dayton transfer Koby Brea have given this Kentucky team two lethal perimeter weapons that command the defense’s full attention wherever they are on the court.

Every coach wants shooting — that does not make Pope unique. Neither does his five-out offense that strives to keep the paint open for drives and cuts by allowing all five players to operate from beyond the 3-point line. But structurally, his offenses have a more unconventional look. Kentucky constantly uses its centers as initiators at the top of the key, and Amari Williams (10th in the SEC in assist rate) and Brandon Garrison (25th) were perfect fits from the portal.

Williams’ skills allow Pope to use him in a variety of ways. He is most often a triggerman in dribble handoffs, but he flashed some vision as a pick-and-roll ballhandler against Tennessee on Tuesday:

As jumbo ball screen operators go, Williams is not quite on the level of Michigan 7-footer Danny Wolf, but he does add a different element to the attack. Defending the Wildcats is a special challenge because of their bigs’ pristine passing.

For Kentucky fans who enjoyed last year’s explosive offense, it’s been a welcome sight to have their new coach continue the fireworks show. The Wildcats have racked up at least 90 points in 10 of their 20 games.

It’s not all sunshine and rainbows for the Wildcats, though. The defense has been leaky, to put it generously, particularly inside the arc. In SEC play, Kentucky ranks last in points per possession allowed (1.17, a gruesome number) and 2-point field goal defense (opponents are shooting 57.6 percent).

Lingering injuries have clipped Kentucky’s wings somewhat, as well. Point guard Kerr Kriisa has been out since Dec. 7 with a Jones fracture in his foot, though his erratic play vacillated between a blessing and a curse in the first month of the season. More recently, lineup mainstays Lamont Butler and Andrew Carr have missed time; the Wildcats’ win at Tennessee on Tuesday was made all the more impressive by Butler’s absence and Carr’s limited minutes.

Per CBB Analytics, Carr and Butler rank second and third on the team in Net Rating. Kentucky is not its best self when they are not on the court. Their statuses are up in the air for Saturday’s showdown.

Arkansas: A humbling start to SEC play

Calipari had to fill out a blank roster upon taking over in Fayetteville, but he managed to bring some familiar faces from Lexington along to set his foundation. DJ Wagner, Adou Thiero and Zvonimir Ivisic followed him from Kentucky, and three former UK commits — Boogie Fland, Kevin Knox and Billy Richmond — flipped their pledges to Arkansas, as well.

That core helped the Hogs get off to a solid 11-2 start, including a needle-moving win over Michigan at Madison Square Garden in December. Like every other SEC team, Arkansas entered league play with clear expectations of making the NCAA Tournament.

The SEC gantlet has gotten the best of the Hogs, though, as a 1-6 start to the conference slate has dropped Arkansas from any tournament projections. The offense has been a disaster, ranking last in both 2-point percentage and 3-point percentage against SEC competition.

Considering how potent Calipari’s final Kentucky offense was, this unit is a clear disappointment. Notably, the architect of that free-flowing system, assistant John Welch, took the associate head coach job at Fresno State this offseason. Calipari replaced him on the staff with old friend Kenny Payne, the former Wildcats assistant who most recently oversaw Louisville’s catastrophically poor run from 2022 to 2024 as head coach.

The Razorbacks’ hopes of a stretch-run rally took a hit when reports emerged in January that Fland would be sidelined for the remainder of the season (the program has announced only that he is out “indefinitely”). The incendiary freshman guard had immediately seized an alpha role as a scorer and creator, averaging 15.1 points and 5.7 assists per game. Per CBB Analytics, Arkansas was 24.5 points better per 100 possessions with Fland in the lineup.

Without him, the Razorbacks must recalibrate. Wagner’s responsibilities grow as a ballhandler, and FAU transfer Nelly Davis must backfill Fland’s scoring. Davis, who made the Final Four as the Owls’ leading scorer two years ago, responded with a season-high 18 points, albeit with shaky inefficiency, in last Saturday’s 65-62 loss to Oklahoma.

The Razorbacks’ ensuing week off might have given Calipari crucial time to tweak the Razorbacks’ approach without Fland. Still, Arkansas faces an uphill climb to reach its postseason aspirations. KenPom has the Razorbacks favored in just one of their next six games.

Emotions will be running high at Rupp Arena on Saturday night. Big Blue Nation will have all day to work itself into a fever pitch before the 9 p.m. ET tip. Calipari told reporters he expects to be booed, and similar treatment likely awaits the trio of Wildcat defectors (Thiero, Wagner and Ivisic).

But in the end, the game will be decided by the players on the court. Kentucky’s vulnerabilities in the paint could be the matchup advantage Arkansas needs to spark its offense. Thiero’s athleticism at the four spot could be a problem, especially if Carr remains limited by his back injury. Davis, though, faces a stiff challenge in the Wildcats’ top defender, Otega Oweh, a sublime athlete who will be tasked with making him uncomfortable all night. The Hogs must also bring their full focus defensively, or Williams and Garrison will slice them up with precise passing.

Kentucky is hoping to continue its climb up the seed list; the Wildcats earned a No. 3 seed in The Athletic’s most recent bracket projection. Arkansas, on the other hand, is grasping for a lifeline on its 2024-25 season. Going into Lexington and stealing a win would certainly give the Razorbacks a push in the right direction.

(Photos of Johnell Davis and Jaxson Robinson: Megan Briggs, Johnnie Izquierdo / Getty Images)