2026 Kentucky Derby expert picks and predictions for Triple Crown race

The post positions are set for the 2026 Kentucky Derby and the draw presented this year’s favorite another obstacle to overcome. Renegade, the horse who will enter the 152nd Run for the Roses with the best odds to win, will start from the No. 1 post along the rail, a spot no horse has won the Kentucky Derby from since Ferdinand in 1986.

The curveball only adds to the wide-open feeling entering the first Triple Crown race of 2026 at Churchill Downs, with some experts believing as many as eight of the 20 horses in the field have a legitimate shot at winning the Kentucky Derby this year. The picks and predictions have varied accordingly during the lead-up to Derby week, though Renegade remains the pre-race favorite following the post position draw.

Here’s a breakdown of the latest odds, picks and predictions ahead of the 2026 Kentucky Derby, as well as how to watch the opening Triple Crown race of the year:

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby?

The 2026 Kentucky Derby is set to be held on Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET and post time is scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET.

Kentucky Derby 2026 odds

Odds courtesy of kentuckyderby.com as of 2 p.m. ET on April 27

• Renegade (4-1)
• Further Ado (6-1)
• Commandment (6-1)
• Chief Wallabee (8-1)
• The Puma (10-1)
• So Happy (15-1)
• Emerging Market (20-1)
• Potente (20-1)
• Fulleffort (20-1)
• Incredibolt (20-1)
• Silent Tactic (20-1)
• Danon Bourbon (20-1)
• Wonder Dean (30-1)
• Golden Tempo (30-1)
• Pavlovian (30-1)
• Albus (30-1)
• Right to Party (30-1)
• Litmus Test (30-1)
• Six Speed (50-1)
• Intrepido (50-1)

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2026 Kentucky Derby picks, predictions

Louisville Courier Journal: Commandment is No. 1 pick

The USA TODAY Network outlet’s final ranking of the horses leading into Kentucky Derby week placed Commandment in the No. 1 spot, followed by Renegade, The Puma, Further Ado and Emerging Market

KentuckyDerby.com: Commandment leads pack

Of the seven handicappers and experts listed at the Kentucky Derby’s official website, four had Commandment ranked as the No. 1 horse in this year’s field. Two experts picked Renegade as their top pick and The Puma also received one No. 1 ranking.

Horse Racing Nation: Watch out for Chief Wallabee

“(Chief Wallabee) adds blinkers for this race, which should focus him enough to put it all together. It is true that the addition of blinkers is rare and often unsuccessful in the (Kentucky) Derby, but if anyone knows what they are doing it is (trainer) Bill Mott. … (Chief Wallabee) has the perfect tracking style to get first run on the deep closers and offers a square price in a wide-open Kentucky Derby.”

Odds Shark: Further Ado is best bet

“He has a stakes win at Churchill Downs already. Plus, he crushed all his prep races – winning the Blue Grass Stakes Grade 1 race in April by 11 lengths. He also has fantastic lineage, having been sired by Gun Runner, who placed third in the 2016 (Kentucky) Derby and won the Breeders Cup Classic the following year. Further Ado is trained by Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Brad Cox and will be ridden by experienced jockey Johnny Velasquez.”

Kevin Kerstein, Churchill Downs: Further Ado

“The way that Further Ado has trained for Brad Cox … he’s just really impressed me … He just sort of has to repeat that last race (Blue Grass Stakes). There’s a lot of horses in this race that might have to improve to beat Further Ado in this start.”

Watch the Kentucky Derby on Peacock

How to watch 2026 Kentucky Derby: TV, live stream

The 2026 Kentucky Derby undercard races will be broadcast by NBC Sports Network and Peacock (Noon-2:30 p.m. ET) on Saturday, May 2.

Coverage of the 2026 Kentucky Derby will then shift to NBC and Peacock from 2:30-7:30 p.m. ET, with post time for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET.