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2026 Kentucky Derby expert picks and predictions for Triple Crown race

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2026 Kentucky Derby expert picks and predictions for Triple Crown race


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The post positions are set for the 2026 Kentucky Derby and the draw presented this year’s favorite another obstacle to overcome. Renegade, the horse who will enter the 152nd Run for the Roses with the best odds to win, will start from the No. 1 post along the rail, a spot no horse has won the Kentucky Derby from since Ferdinand in 1986.

The curveball only adds to the wide-open feeling entering the first Triple Crown race of 2026 at Churchill Downs, with some experts believing as many as eight of the 20 horses in the field have a legitimate shot at winning the Kentucky Derby this year. The picks and predictions have varied accordingly during the lead-up to Derby week, though Renegade remains the pre-race favorite following the post position draw.

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Here’s a breakdown of the latest odds, picks and predictions ahead of the 2026 Kentucky Derby, as well as how to watch the opening Triple Crown race of the year:

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby?

The 2026 Kentucky Derby is set to be held on Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET and post time is scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET.

Kentucky Derby 2026 odds

Odds courtesy of kentuckyderby.com as of 2 p.m. ET on April 27

  • Renegade (4-1)
  • Further Ado (6-1)
  • Commandment (6-1)
  • Chief Wallabee (8-1)
  • The Puma (10-1)
  • So Happy (15-1)
  • Emerging Market (20-1)
  • Potente (20-1)
  • Fulleffort (20-1)
  • Incredibolt (20-1)
  • Silent Tactic (20-1)
  • Danon Bourbon (20-1)
  • Wonder Dean (30-1)
  • Golden Tempo (30-1)
  • Pavlovian (30-1)
  • Albus (30-1)
  • Right to Party (30-1)
  • Litmus Test (30-1)
  • Six Speed (50-1)
  • Intrepido (50-1)

2026 Kentucky Derby picks, predictions

Louisville Courier Journal: Commandment is No. 1 pick

The USA TODAY Network outlet’s final ranking of the horses leading into Kentucky Derby week placed Commandment in the No. 1 spot, followed by Renegade, The Puma, Further Ado and Emerging Market

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KentuckyDerby.com: Commandment leads pack

Of the seven handicappers and experts listed at the Kentucky Derby’s official website, four had Commandment ranked as the No. 1 horse in this year’s field. Two experts picked Renegade as their top pick and The Puma also received one No. 1 ranking.

Horse Racing Nation: Watch out for Chief Wallabee

“(Chief Wallabee) adds blinkers for this race, which should focus him enough to put it all together. It is true that the addition of blinkers is rare and often unsuccessful in the (Kentucky) Derby, but if anyone knows what they are doing it is (trainer) Bill Mott. … (Chief Wallabee) has the perfect tracking style to get first run on the deep closers and offers a square price in a wide-open Kentucky Derby.”

Odds Shark: Further Ado is best bet

“He has a stakes win at Churchill Downs already. Plus, he crushed all his prep races – winning the Blue Grass Stakes Grade 1 race in April by 11 lengths. He also has fantastic lineage, having been sired by Gun Runner, who placed third in the 2016 (Kentucky) Derby and won the Breeders Cup Classic the following year. Further Ado is trained by Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Brad Cox and will be ridden by experienced jockey Johnny Velasquez.”

Kevin Kerstein, Churchill Downs: Further Ado

“The way that Further Ado has trained for Brad Cox … he’s just really impressed me … He just sort of has to repeat that last race (Blue Grass Stakes). There’s a lot of horses in this race that might have to improve to beat Further Ado in this start.”

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Watch the Kentucky Derby on Peacock

How to watch 2026 Kentucky Derby: TV, live stream

The 2026 Kentucky Derby undercard races will be broadcast by NBC Sports Network and Peacock (Noon-2:30 p.m. ET) on Saturday, May 2.

Coverage of the 2026 Kentucky Derby will then shift to NBC and Peacock from 2:30-7:30 p.m. ET, with post time for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET.



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Mark Pope visiting top-10 recruit and reclass candidate Ryan Hampton on Monday

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Mark Pope visiting top-10 recruit and reclass candidate Ryan Hampton on Monday


As Mark Pope works frantically to build the 2026-27 Kentucky Basketball roster, we now have a high school reclassification candidate to monitor.

According to On3’s Joe Tipton, Pope is set to have an in-home visit with 5-star wing Ryan Hampton. Tipton also notes that Hampton is a reclass candidate, which he almost has to be for Pope to visit him at a time when nearly all of his focus is on next season’s roster.

Hampton does not currently hold a scholarship offer from the Wildcats, but that may very well come Monday.

The 6-foot-6 Texas native is the brother of former Kentucky recruit R.J. Hampton, a 5-star recruit in the class of 2019 who ended up playing in Australia before being drafted into the NBA, where he spent four years and now plays in China.

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The younger Hampton, who plays at DME Academy in Florida, is ranked as high as fifth overall in the 2027 class by 247 Sports. He holds scholarship offers from Kansas, Indiana, Tennessee, SMU, Texas, Louisville, Nebraska, Texas A&M, NC State, and LSU, among others. He’s taken official visits to SMU, Nebraska, and NC State.



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Fans flock to first KY Derby Week Sunday Funday races in over a decade

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Fans flock to first KY Derby Week Sunday Funday races in over a decade


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  • Churchill Downs held a “Sunday Funday” event, marking the first Sunday of racing during Derby Week since 2010.
  • The additional day of racing attracted both Kentucky Derby regulars and first-time attendees.
  • Many visitors, including some from out of state, took the opportunity to dress in traditional, colorful Derby fashion.
  • The event drew in tourists who were in Louisville for other reasons, such as bourbon tastings or family history research.

Sunday racing during Kentucky Derby Week returned on April 26, drawing both Derby regulars and newcomers.

Organizers dubbed the event “Sunday Funday,” marking the first time horse racing had been held at Churchill Downs Racetrack on a Sunday during Derby Week since 2010.

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With gates opening at 11:30 a.m. and the first race post time at 12:45 p.m., it seemed some staffers and attendees came straight to the racetrack from church. 

“Some of us have to go to church and get blessed before we come,” said a woman dressed in her Sunday finest by the Paddock Gate, with 10 minutes to go before the gates opened for the day. 

“Some of us stay blessed,” another worker responded.

Billy and April Bensing were among those who took in the day’s racing from the Stakes Room & Balcony.

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Speaking outside the Paddock Gate, the Shively couple — dressed in bright fluorescent orange and pink — said they typically attend 502’sDay, the Tuesday of Derby Week, each year with family and friends, largely because the crowds are thinner.

But when they heard Churchill Downs was adding a seventh day of racing to the eight-day Kentucky Derby schedule, they jumped at the chance to come for a second day without the kids. 

For Chad and Leslie Cooper of Jonesville, Louisiana, another day of racing meant another outfit to put together. This year marked their second visit to Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby Week, after having such a good time last year. 

“We came so far to do this, we’re going all out. It don’t matter if it’s low-key or not,” Leslie Cooper said.

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She added, “Our kids are all grown and gone, so we can just enjoy ourselves.”

In contrast, Taiya Hardy was attending her first horse race. She also took the opportunity to wear a brightly colored spring dress on what started out as an overcast, chilly day that later turned abundantly sunny.

“Colorado doesn’t have clothes like these,” she said of the outfit and hat, the latter of which she purchased at Pix Shoes at 210 S. Preston St. in downtown Louisville.

Also coming to Churchill Downs for the first time were Jack and Kathy Arzooyan and their cousin, Wendy Franz. The Minnesota and Michigan residents, along with seven other family members, traveled to Kentucky this past week to search for a common ancestor.

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They succeeded in finding his gravestone at Grove Hill Cemetery in Shelbyville, about 40 minutes outside Louisville. 

Their flight home was scheduled for April 27, but in the meantime, the cousins decided to take advantage of everything the home of twin spires has to offer.

“This is icing on the cake,” said Kathy Arzooyan.

For Sam and Taylr Henson, bourbon was the main draw to Louisville. That Derby Week happened to coincide with their trip was an added bonus. 

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The couple traveled from Nashville, Tennessee, to Louisville to attend a few bourbon tastings around town. Coming to “Sunday Funday” was not on the couple’s itinerary, but a spur-of-the-moment decision.

“We were up doing some bourbon tastings, and then we were like, ‘Oh, we can get in on this.’ So we went to Macy’s yesterday and bought outfits, and we’re here,” Sam Henson said. 

Both donned flowery, spring-inspired outfits that popped with color, accessorized with headwear in traditional Derby fashion — for Taylr, a white, flowery fascinator, and for Sam, a white fedora with a black band. 

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Although the couple did not initially plan to stop by the racetrack, they realized that their time in Louisville was a perfect opportunity to enjoy the famous “Derby experience.”

“Everybody talks about it, and you see it on TV and everything, so we just wanted to come see it firsthand,” Sam Henson said. 

Anna Murphy had her own way of bringing bursts of color to Churchill Downs. As the 2026 Woodford Reserve Kentucky Derby bottle artist, she will be at the track all week, painting an enlarged version of her artwork that appears on the commemorative Woodford Reserve bottle on site. 

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The Chicago artist has a Bachelor of Fine Arts in painting from the University of Louisville. But despite her connection to the city, this year marks her first Derby experience.

Murphy is most looking forward to admiring the fashion on display throughout the week, she said.“That’s such a big part of the artwork on this year’s Derby bottle, as well, is the fashion and the hats,” Murphy said. “That’s my favorite part.”





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Could Monday be the day for Tyran Stokes?

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Could Monday be the day for Tyran Stokes?


Is it time for No. 1 recruit Tyran Stokes to make his final decision? Goodness, we all hope so. The restlessness is very real for Big Blue Nation, but we could be just a couple of days away from clarity — if Jeff Goodman’s source is correct, at least.

With rumors and rumblings all over the place when it comes to the top-ranked prospect originally from Louisville, Goodman is hearing that a commitment could happen to begin the week on Monday. But, like the rest of us, he’s skeptical until it comes straight from the horse’s mouth.

Only Tyran Stokes knows what Tyran Stokes is gonna do, but, the latest word is Monday. Apparently.

“I was told by one source close to the situation that Tyran Stokes, the No. 1 player in the country, could announce his decision on Monday,” Goodman wrote. “I’ll believe it when I see it.”

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Agreed.

Maybe the biggest takeaway from his report, though? No mention of Oregon, despite the Ducks’ rumored push in recent weeks — especially since Jasper Johnson’s move to Eugene and individual fight to bring the fellow in-state talent with him.

Goodman believes it’s a head-to-head battle between the Jayhawks and Wildcats.

“Stokes choosing between Kansas and Kentucky,” he said.

Interesting.

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KSR was the first to report that Mark Pope has recruited Jamal Crawford — Stokes’ assistant coach at Rainier Beach HS in Seattle and a three-time NBA Sixth Man of the Year — to join his staff in Lexington. That comes after Pope already signed Stokes’ former Prolific Prep teammate Zoom Diallo out of the transfer portal, coming in from Washington. The Wildcats’ pursuit has been relentless, regardless of speculation about the No. 1 recruit’s personal connection to Bill Self and the Jayhawks.

He talked about his recruiting process this week on a TikTok live, talking with a Kentucky fan.

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“Yoooo, see, you guys are crazy,” Stokes said. “It’s been very, you know. Bro, the process is very up and down. Sometimes it can be fun, sometimes it can be annoying. It just depends on where you’re at with the process.”

“Let me put it in a way, like this,” Stokes continued. “How do I put it for a regular person to know what I’m going through? Someone offers you a job worth a lot of money, and you don’t know what there is to come with that job. You’re just like, here, there’s this paycheck. But you have to be committed to the job for ten months, and you don’t know what you’re getting yourself into. Do you take it? Do you feel me? So you have to play out the process and see how everything falls out.”

When asked about a timeline for his decision, Stokes was quick to shut down the conversation and move on. Hopefully this recent update indicates there is light at the end of this long tunnel — whether it’s Monday or shortly after.

The spot is yours, Tyran. Come take it.





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