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2026 Kentucky Derby expert picks and predictions for Triple Crown race

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2026 Kentucky Derby expert picks and predictions for Triple Crown race


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The post positions are set for the 2026 Kentucky Derby and the draw presented this year’s favorite another obstacle to overcome. Renegade, the horse who will enter the 152nd Run for the Roses with the best odds to win, will start from the No. 1 post along the rail, a spot no horse has won the Kentucky Derby from since Ferdinand in 1986.

The curveball only adds to the wide-open feeling entering the first Triple Crown race of 2026 at Churchill Downs, with some experts believing as many as eight of the 20 horses in the field have a legitimate shot at winning the Kentucky Derby this year. The picks and predictions have varied accordingly during the lead-up to Derby week, though Renegade remains the pre-race favorite following the post position draw.

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Here’s a breakdown of the latest odds, picks and predictions ahead of the 2026 Kentucky Derby, as well as how to watch the opening Triple Crown race of the year:

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby?

The 2026 Kentucky Derby is set to be held on Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET and post time is scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET.

Kentucky Derby 2026 odds

Odds courtesy of kentuckyderby.com as of 2 p.m. ET on April 27

  • Renegade (4-1)
  • Further Ado (6-1)
  • Commandment (6-1)
  • Chief Wallabee (8-1)
  • The Puma (10-1)
  • So Happy (15-1)
  • Emerging Market (20-1)
  • Potente (20-1)
  • Fulleffort (20-1)
  • Incredibolt (20-1)
  • Silent Tactic (20-1)
  • Danon Bourbon (20-1)
  • Wonder Dean (30-1)
  • Golden Tempo (30-1)
  • Pavlovian (30-1)
  • Albus (30-1)
  • Right to Party (30-1)
  • Litmus Test (30-1)
  • Six Speed (50-1)
  • Intrepido (50-1)

2026 Kentucky Derby picks, predictions

Louisville Courier Journal: Commandment is No. 1 pick

The USA TODAY Network outlet’s final ranking of the horses leading into Kentucky Derby week placed Commandment in the No. 1 spot, followed by Renegade, The Puma, Further Ado and Emerging Market

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KentuckyDerby.com: Commandment leads pack

Of the seven handicappers and experts listed at the Kentucky Derby’s official website, four had Commandment ranked as the No. 1 horse in this year’s field. Two experts picked Renegade as their top pick and The Puma also received one No. 1 ranking.

Horse Racing Nation: Watch out for Chief Wallabee

“(Chief Wallabee) adds blinkers for this race, which should focus him enough to put it all together. It is true that the addition of blinkers is rare and often unsuccessful in the (Kentucky) Derby, but if anyone knows what they are doing it is (trainer) Bill Mott. … (Chief Wallabee) has the perfect tracking style to get first run on the deep closers and offers a square price in a wide-open Kentucky Derby.”

Odds Shark: Further Ado is best bet

“He has a stakes win at Churchill Downs already. Plus, he crushed all his prep races – winning the Blue Grass Stakes Grade 1 race in April by 11 lengths. He also has fantastic lineage, having been sired by Gun Runner, who placed third in the 2016 (Kentucky) Derby and won the Breeders Cup Classic the following year. Further Ado is trained by Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Brad Cox and will be ridden by experienced jockey Johnny Velasquez.”

Kevin Kerstein, Churchill Downs: Further Ado

“The way that Further Ado has trained for Brad Cox … he’s just really impressed me … He just sort of has to repeat that last race (Blue Grass Stakes). There’s a lot of horses in this race that might have to improve to beat Further Ado in this start.”

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Watch the Kentucky Derby on Peacock

How to watch 2026 Kentucky Derby: TV, live stream

The 2026 Kentucky Derby undercard races will be broadcast by NBC Sports Network and Peacock (Noon-2:30 p.m. ET) on Saturday, May 2.

Coverage of the 2026 Kentucky Derby will then shift to NBC and Peacock from 2:30-7:30 p.m. ET, with post time for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET.



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3 killed in reported murder-suicide incident in southern Kentucky

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3 killed in reported murder-suicide incident in southern Kentucky


LONDON, Ky. (FOX 56) — Three people in Kentucky were killed in a reported murder-suicide Saturday night after a police chase through Knox and Laurel counties.

According to a news release, the Barbourville City Police had been chasing a vehicle around 10:45 p.m. June 6 regarding a report of a possible domestic violence complaint.

Knox County authorities had received the complaint after three people had reportedly left a residence in Barbourville to get something to eat.

Parents of one of the people were concerned and called Knox County dispatch, and police located the vehicle, which allegedly did not stop. Barbourville police chased the vehicle through Knox County into Laurel County. It ended on KY-312 when the vehicle struck another vehicle.

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When authorities caught up to the vehicle, officers found the bodies of three people inside the vehicle. They were identified as 21-year-old James Priddy of Bimble, 18-year-old Jadence Ann Marie Hale, and 19-year-old Kira Lila Hope Asher of Lily.

A preliminary investigation suggests Priddy allegedly shot and killed Hale and Asher, then reportedly killed himself.

The Laurel County Sheriff’s Office advised Saturday night that the area on KY-312 between Mill Creek Drive and Hood Road would be closed during the investigation.

The roadway has since reopened.

The investigation remains ongoing.

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Decisions on deck Kentucky setting the bar for two top targets

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Decisions on deck Kentucky setting the bar for two top targets


Things have been going well on the recruiting front lately for the Kentucky Wildcats. Head coach Will Stein and his staff in Lexington continue to set the tone in plenty of recruitments after landing 18 top targets in the 2027 class. Here is the latest on the recruiting front for Kentucky.



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Ertel, Indiana All-Stars take a punch, deliver counter to sweep Kentucky

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Ertel, Indiana All-Stars take a punch, deliver counter to sweep Kentucky


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  • The Indiana All-Stars defeated the Kentucky All-Stars 94-80, completing a two-game sweep.
  • Kentucky tied the game at 70-70 before Indiana pulled away with a late scoring run.
  • IndyStar Mr. Basketball Luke Ertel earned MVP honors with 21 points, eight assists, and eight rebounds.

INDIANAPOLIS – Baron Walker had a far-fetched thought after the Indiana All-Stars’ game against Kentucky on Saturday night that actually might make some sense in this crazy transfer portal college basketball world.

“I wish we could just form a college and be a college team if we could,” Walker said.

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Indiana All-Stars’ coach Todd Woelfle, told of Walker’s idea, said he would pay money to watch that team play. He had a front-row view on Saturday night as Indiana swept Kentucky with a 94-80 victory at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in front of 4,702 fans.

It was not easy. Indiana looked like it might follow a similar path from Friday night’s 106-83 win in Lexington, Ky., when Indiana took command in the second half after leading by three points at halftime. Indiana took a 49-43 lead into the locker room on Saturday, then quickly pushed out to a 15-point advantage with a spark from Noblesville’s Walker, a Butler recruit.

This time, Kentucky had an answer. More specifically, Kentucky Mr. Basketball Jake Feldhaus had an answer. The 6-8 Feldhaus, a South Florida recruit who finished with 25 points and 16 rebounds, sparked a comeback that allowed Kentucky to tie the score, 70-70, with 6:25 remaining.

Kentucky, which had not won a game in the series on Indiana soil since 1996, had the momentum.

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“I think when it was 70-70, those kids bonding during the week and coming together, even though it was a short period of time, got them over the hump,” Woelfle said. “Everybody put their egos aside and just wanted to win. What a great group of kids.”

Indiana got back on track with a nifty pass from IndyStar Mr. Basketball Luke Ertel to Crown Point’s Dikembe Shaw, who somehow flipped the ball off the backboard and in as he was fouled. After Walker and Ertel each hit two free throws, the Indiana All-Stars delivered a couple of knockout blows on a dish from Brady Scholl to Brennan Miller for a dunk and a 3-pointer from Ertel.

Just like that, Indiana led 81-70. And no more concern about losing to Kentucky at home for the first time in 30 years.

“I was just happy to get one to go,” a relieved Ertel said. “I was shooting it terrible all week, so to get that one three to go, I was pretty excited.”

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Even when he is not making shots at a high rate (he was 1-for-6 from the 3-point line on Saturday), the Purdue-bound Ertel can impact games in many other ways. He still finished with 21 points on 7-for-16 shooting overall and added eight assists and eight rebounds to earn MVP honors.

“He does so many things,” Woelfle said of Ertel. “He always defends and gives you his best effort. He never puts his head down. And that’s what separates good from great. There’s a reason, even if he didn’t score a ton of points the last two nights, why he’s Mr. Basketball. He’s a phenomenal person, first.”

Walker added 18 points, seven rebounds and three assists for the Indiana All-Stars and Lawrence North’s Miller also finished in double figures with 14 points and eight rebounds. Silver Creek’s Dane Caldwell was another player who provided a spark in limited playing time with nine points in 11 minutes.

Up and down the lineup, the All-Stars received contributions from all 11 available players (Fishers’ Kai McGrew and Ben Davis’ JaShawn Ladd were out with injuries). Even more than meshing on the court, the 2026 Indiana All-Stars seemed to genuinely enjoy one another.

“Honestly, no,” Ertel said when asked if he knew it would be that way coming into the week. “Usually there’s some drama or people jealous of each other or people complaining. But that wasn’t really the case at all this week. That shows why we went 3-0. We have a great group of guys.”

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The win clinched the 13th sweep for Indiana in the past 17 years and pushed Indiana’s all-time record to 109-46 against Kentucky since the series began in 1940. Indiana has won 45 of 52 games since 2000.

The Indiana players ran back to the locker room together one final time after the buzzer sounded and meeting a midcourt with a yell of “Indiana!” They will now go their separate ways, as soon as Sunday for Ertel, Walker and others. In some ways, the Saturday of the Indiana All-Star series has the feel of the last day of school.

“These relationships that we just built the last five days are going to take us way further,” Walker said. “It’s such a great group of guys … I could go down the list, just being able to play with some of them for the first time. It’s a blessing just to be part of this. I won’t really realize it now, but when I’m older and basketball is done, that’s when I’ll remember it. Just very blessed and grateful for the opportunity.”

*Carmel’s Evan Harrell and Pike’s Komari Booker were named the Wooden/MCL Citizenship Award for 2026 as presented by the IndyStar Indiana All-Stars.

Call Star reporter Kyle Neddenriep at (317) 444-6649. Get IndyStar’s high school coverage sent directly to your inbox with the High School Sports newsletter. And be sure to subscribe to our new IndyStarTV: Preps YouTube channel.

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