PolitiFact – Is life as hard in Georgia as Stacey Abrams said? We checked her stats

Stacey Abrams mainly requested us to fact-check her.

The Georgia Democrat operating for governor tweeted that Georgia’s residents face a bunch of issues, and she or he listed them. 

“We’re #48 in psychological well being, #2 in uninsured. #1 in maternal mortality and new HIV circumstances, #9 in gun violence,” she tweeted May 21, 2022.

When pressed about her grim statistics a few days later, Abrams defended her numbers, saying, “Any person’s going to attempt to PolitiFact me on this.”

We did, and with one exception, her knowledge typically holds up. A few of her numbers are somewhat off, or totally different research discovered barely totally different rankings. We share the information the marketing campaign used and what we discovered. Because of the complexity of the declare with its many various subjects, we gained’t challenge a score.

Georgia is No. 48 in psychological well being

That is essentially the most problematic of her claims. Georgia doesn’t do this badly in some rankings.

Her workers pointed to work by Psychological Well being America, a bunch that has been advocating for psychological well being providers for over a century. Whereas the group ranks Georgia forty eighth within the sub-category of entry to care, the state has an total rating of 27 out of the 50 states. That’s based mostly on the steadiness between the prevalence of psychological sickness and the provision of remedy.

Within the group’s rating course of, Georgia benefited from having a comparatively low price of psychological sickness. It ranked fourth out of fifty. Abrams’ marketing campaign stated their concern is about how straightforward it’s for Georgians to get remedy.

No. 2 in uninsured

That is mainly appropriate; Georgia has excessive charges of uninsurance. Abrams’ relied on the work of the Kaiser Household Basis, a dependable supply of well being care knowledge. Utilizing authorities figures, the muse discovered that Texas had the best price of individuals with no medical insurance — 17.5% — adopted by Oklahoma and Georgia, each with uninsurance charges of 14.5%.

So, Georgia tied for second.

That was for 2020, which was a difficult 12 months for knowledge assortment. In the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, fewer individuals responded to the federal government’s surveys. However taking a look at earlier authorities knowledge didn’t change the image a lot.

For 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau discovered that Georgia ranked third behind Texas and Oklahoma. Both method, Georgia is within the high three states with a big fraction of residents who lack insurance coverage.

No. 1 in maternal mortality

Georgia ranks excessive in maternal mortality, however relying on the definition of maternal mortality and who crunched the numbers, Georgia ranks both first, second or fifth. 

The newest and full knowledge comes from Jeffrey Howard, a public well being professor on the College of Texas San Antonio. Abrams’ marketing campaign didn’t level to his work, however we discovered it, and it helps her declare.

Howard makes a speciality of sifting via a number of sources of maternal mortality knowledge. Maternal mortality is mostly reported utilizing two time frames — deaths that happen inside 42 days of supply, and people who come inside one 12 months of supply.

Howard makes use of the longer timeframe of as much as one 12 months after supply as a result of he says it’s extra useful in shaping well being coverage.

“If we don’t embrace the later deaths, we’re ignoring potential issues of entry to care, and the standard of care,” Howard stated.

Howard has knowledge for all 50 states for 2019, and when he runs the numbers, Georgia has the worst maternal mortality price at 55.43 deaths per 100,000 individuals.

The newest authorities evaluation was for 2018, and it reported demise charges in each time frames — inside 42 days of supply, and inside one 12 months of supply. For the shorter interval, Georgia ranked fifth, not first.

Within the longer timeframe, Georgia did rank first. However as a result of knowledge constraints, the longer timeframe included solely 9 states. Louisiana, Alabama and Indiana ranked second, third and fourth, respectively.

For her half, Abrams relied on a 2021 article within the Worldwide Journal of Maternal and Youngster Well being, which reported that Georgia “tops the checklist of all 50 states.” We noticed a number of pink flags within the authors’ methodology. Most troubling? They obtained their key numbers from a non-peer reviewed story written for most of the people that relied on knowledge from a non-peer reviewed supply.

No. 1 in new HIV circumstances

The marketing campaign obtained this stat from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention and it’s appropriate. However it’s for 2020, and the CDC warns that numbers gathered throughout COVID-19 “needs to be interpreted with warning.”

That stated, the CDC reported that the speed of recent HIV infections in Georgia was 22.1 per 100,000. Louisiana ranked second with a price of 18.7, per 100,000, and Florida third, with 18.2 new circumstances per 100,000.

The 2019 pre-pandemic CDC knowledge confirmed Georgia ranked fourth, behind high ranked Florida, Louisiana and Nevada. So, not the best price, however one of many highest within the nation.

No. 9 in gun violence

That is within the ballpark, however precision is tough. The Abrams marketing campaign relied on a fact-sheet for Georgia from Everytown for Gun Security, a gun management advocacy group. The group checked out firearm deaths over 5 years from 2016 to 2020, and firearm accidents for 2017. 

“In a median 12 months, 1,693 individuals die and 4,492 are wounded by weapons in Georgia. Georgia has the Ninth-highest price of gun violence within the U.S.,” the actual fact sheet on Georgia stated.

The group’s analysis director Sarah Burd-Sharps advised us the rating is a mix of the 2 figures (add them collectively, then divide by the state’s inhabitants to get the speed). 

Different knowledge sources give a barely totally different image of how Georgia stands relative to different states.

The CDC reported that in 2020, Georgia ranked fifteenth in firearm-related deaths.

There is no such thing as a easy supply of information on firearm accidents. To fill within the hole, analysts on the RAND Company, a nonprofit analysis group, created a database from a number of state-level sources that covers the years from 2000 to 2016

Of their outcomes, Georgia ranks tenth for firearm hospitalizations. 

Neither the CDC depend of deaths nor the RAND numbers on accidents rank Georgia at No. 9, however they cowl totally different years, they usually don’t counsel Abrams is wildly flawed. Given the way in which Everytown for Gun Security derives its rankings, the harm numbers drive the ultimate outcomes. In that regard, Abrams’ quantity aligns intently with the RAND findings.