Georgia vs. Florida prediction: Week 9 college football odds, picks

The top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs battle the Florida Gators on Saturday in Jacksonville. 

It’s one of this week’s marquee college football matchups. 

I wouldn’t overlook the Gators (5-2) here. The Bulldogs look sluggish, and Graham Mertz has progressed quickly as a passer in Billy Napier’s play-action-heavy offense.

This will be a close game if Florida’s secondary hangs tough against a Brock Bowers-less, Carson Beck-led Bulldogs’ offense. 

I expect that to happen and I’m wagering accordingly. 

Georgia vs Florida prediction

The Bulldogs don’t look like themselves.

I think the wear and tear is starting to get to them. 

After winning consecutive national championships and playing a cupcake schedule this season, it’s hard for these players to get up and dominate each week. 

Georgia is 7-0 but 1-6 against the spread (ATS). Aside from throttling Kentucky, 51-13, the Bulldogs have let every opponent keep the game closer than it should’ve been. 

Now, their superstar tight end in Bowers is hurt. He’s accounted for more than a quarter of Georgia’s total passing output. 

Betting on College Football?

How will Beck respond? He hasn’t been excellent, even with Bowers. 

Florida’s defensive metrics aren’t great, and explosive plays have bit the Gators. They’re 10th nationally in Success Rate allowed and dead last in Explosiveness allowed. 

But that might not matter Saturday. The Bulldogs’ attack is predicated on shorter plays, ranking 101st in explosive plays. No Bowers hurts their downfield passing attack even more. 

Florida’s Austin Armstrong is a great defensive coordinator, and he’ll have his hard-hitting front seven ready to collapse on Georiga’s running game and Beck’s underneath routes.

Georgia’s defense is dominant, but the Bulldogs are a tad vulnerable against the run, ranking sub-50th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per Rush allowed.

If Florida’s explosive running back duo of Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne can establish the ground game, it’ll bring Georgia’s defense closer to the line of scrimmage, opening up plenty of play-action looks for Mertz. 

And Mertz has been a play-action merchant this year. He’s completing more than 70 percent of his play-action passes for more than nine yards per attempt (YPA). Nine have gone for scores, and zero have been intercepted. 

Mertz has put together his best season in Napier’s play-action-heavy system. He’s on pace to post career bests in YPA (8.4), turnover-worthy play rate (0.4 percent) and completion rate (75.6 percent).

With Mertz under center, the Gators rank 23rd nationally in EPA per Pass. 

Here’s a nice play-action throw from the South Carolina game.

I like this matchup for the Gators, especially if the Bulldogs continue to sleepwalk without their best player. 

And if all else fails, we can always trust Napier as an underdog. 

The Florida head coach is 19-6 ATS catching points in his career, dating back to his Louisiana days. He’s also 8-1 ATS as a double-digit ‘dog. 

Napier’s teams have covered five straight times as two-touchdown underdogs, including last season against Georgia, losing by 22 as 23-point underdogs. 

I expect more of the same Saturday. 

Georgia vs Florida pick

Florida +14.5 | Play to +14