Does Alabama have to beat Georgia to make the CFP? Here’s what one expert thinks

Alabama football will learn its College Football Playoff fate Sunday.

But first it gets to face No. 3 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The question now is, will that be a must-win game for the Crimson Tide to make the playoff?

ESPN analyst and former Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy doesn’t think so. Not with the Crimson Tide ranked No. 9 in the CFP rankings revealed Tuesday.

“At this point based on what we saw tonight, assuming Alabama doesn’t get steamrolled by 28 points, 21 points plus, I think Bama’s in the field regardless of the outcome of Saturday’s game,” McElroy said on ESPN. “They can only enhance their resume with a win against Georgia for a second time and possibly get all the way up to the point where they’re in the five spot, which is much coveted. Naturally a home playoff game and maybe even a first-round bye.”

The CFP committee moved Notre Dame from No. 9 to No. 10. Right now, the No. 10 spot is the last spot in the field because of the remaining two highest-ranked conference champions making the field.

Here’s the committee’s justification for the swap:

“The debate between Alabama and Notre Dame over the past three weeks has been one of the strongest debates we’ve had in the room for the past two years that I’ve been a member of the committee,” CFP chair Hunter Yurachek said on ESPN. “I think this week, as we looked at those two teams and how closely they have been over the past the past three weeks, Notre Dame went on the road, had a strong road win at Stanford, but Alabama went on the road, in a rivalry game. Looked really good, especially in the first half, got up 17-0, rand the ball well. Auburn came back on them. They had a great, gutsy call on 4th-and-2 late in the (fourth) quarter, to get a touchdown and then got the turnover late in that game. And I think that was enough to change the minds of a couple committee members to push Alabama up ahead of Notre Dame in this week’s rankings.”

The next question for Alabama is, if it beats Georgia and wins the SEC, can it get a first-round bye?

The top four highest-ranked teams get a first-round bye.

ESPN’s Booger McFarland, Joey Galloway and McElroy weighed in.

“I don’t think they get a bye,” McFarland said. “I think they get into the five, six neighborhood. I think the committee values Alabama’s consistency, beating the four ranked teams in a row going through that stretch. When they’re good, they can beat anybody. I just think that loss to Florida State is probably going to keep them out of a first-round bye.”

Galloway agreed, “even though they’ve had an amazing season.”

But McElroy saw things differently.

“I think they’re getting a bye,” McElroy said. “I really do. … It depends a little bit on what happens in front of them, but it’s absolutely in their reach.”